Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

杂多酸催化合成乙酸乙酯

回流吸附法制备的负载型12-钨磷酸(HPW/C)是合成乙酸乙酯的高效催化剂。最佳反应条件下乙醇转化率达96％,酯化选择性100％。催化剂的高活性是由于HPW在活性炭上高度分散,使活性位增多,有效酸量增大。HPW/C还具有热稳定性高和不易流失等优点。     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

准移动闭塞系统的元胞自动机模型及列车延迟传播规律的研究

在NaSch模型的基础上，针对铁路交通的特点提出一种用于模拟准移动闭塞系统的元胞自动机模型.应用该模型模拟了准移动闭塞系统列车延迟传播的交通现象，分析了准移动闭塞系统中的轨道定位单元长度、发车时间间隔、初始延迟时间等因素对列车延迟传播的影响. 关键词： 元胞自动机 交通流 准移动闭塞     

Structural and thermodynamic properties of AlB2 compound

We employ a first-principles plane wave method with the relativistic analytic pseudopotential of Hartwigsen, Goedecker and Hutter (HGH) scheme in the frame of DFT to calculate the equilibrium lattice parameters and the thermodynamic properties of AlB₂ compound with hcp structure. The obtained lattice parameters are in good agreement with the available experimental data and those calculated by others. Through the quasi-harmonic Debye model, obtained successfully are the dependences of the normalized lattice parameters a/a₀ and c/c₀ on pressure P, the normalized primitive cell volume V/V₀ on pressure P, the variation of the thermal expansion α with pressure P and temperature T, as well as the Debye temperature \Theta_D and the heat capacity C_V on pressure P and temperature T.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Numerical solutions of the shallow water equations with discontinuous bed topography

A simple scheme is developed for treatment of vertical bed topography in shallow water flows. The effect of the vertical step on flows is modelled with the shallow water equations including local energy loss terms. The bed elevation is denoted with z_b^‐ for the left and z_b⁺ for the right values at each grid point, hence exactly representing a discontinuity in the bed topography. The surface gradient method (SGM) is generalized to reconstruct water depths at cell interfaces involving a vertical step so that the fluxes at the cell interfaces can accurately be calculated with a Riemann solver. The scheme is verified by predicting a surge crossing a step, a tidal flow over a step and dam‐break flows on wet/dry beds. The results have shown good agreements compared with analytical solutions and available experimental data. The scheme is efficient, robust, and may be used for practical flow calculations. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.