Minimum Message Length in Hybrid ARMA and LSTM Model Forecasting

Modeling and analysis of time series are important in applications including economics, engineering, environmental science and social science. Selecting the best time series model with accurate parameters in forecasting is a challenging objective for scientists and academic researchers. Hybrid models combining neural networks and traditional Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models are being used to improve the accuracy of modeling and forecasting time series. Most of the existing time series models are selected by information-theoretic approaches, such as AIC, BIC, and HQ. This paper revisits a model selection technique based on Minimum Message Length (MML) and investigates its use in hybrid time series analysis. MML is a Bayesian information-theoretic approach and has been used in selecting the best ARMA model. We utilize the long short-term memory (LSTM) approach to construct a hybrid ARMA-LSTM model and show that MML performs better than AIC, BIC, and HQ in selecting the model—both in the traditional ARMA models (without LSTM) and with hybrid ARMA-LSTM models. These results held on simulated data and both real-world datasets that we considered.We also develop a simple MML ARIMA model.     

磁控溅射制备W掺杂VO2/FTO复合薄膜及其性能分析

为了获得相变温度低且热致变色性能优越的光学材料, 室温下在F:SnO₂ (FTO)导电玻璃基板表面沉积钨钒金属膜, 再经空气气氛下的热氧化处理, 制备了W掺杂VO₂/FTO复合薄膜, 利用X射线光电子能谱、X射线衍射和扫描电镜对薄膜的结构和表面形貌进行了分析. 结果表明: 高温热氧化处理过程中没有生成W, F, V混合氧化物, W以替换V原子的方式掺杂. 与采用相同工艺和条件制备的纯VO₂/FTO复合薄膜相比, W掺杂VO₂薄膜没有改变晶面取向, 仍具有(110)晶面择优取向, 相变温度下降到35 ℃左右, 热滞回线收窄到4 ℃, 高低温下的近红外光透过率变化量提高到28%. 薄膜的结晶程度明显提高, 表面变得平滑致密, 具有很好的一致性, 对光电薄膜器件的设计开发和工业化生产具有重要意义. 关键词： W掺杂 2')" href="#">VO₂ FTO导电玻璃 磁控溅射     

Chaos in social learning with multiple true states

Most existing social learning models assume that there is only one underlying true state. In this work, we consider a social learning model with multiple true states, in which agents in different groups receive different signal sequences generated by their corresponding underlying true states. Each agent updates his belief by combining his rational self-adjustment based on the external signals he received and the influence of his neighbors according to their communication. We observe chaotic oscillation in the belief evolution, which implies that neither true state could be learnt correctly by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents.     

Formation of hydrophobic coating on PMMA surface using unipolar nanosecond-pulse DBD in atmospheric air

Dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) can modify the material surface and result in complicated physical and chemical reactions to improve the surface hydrophilicity, which is proved to be an effective method for surface modification. Compared with the traditional ac-excitation DBD, the DBD using unipolar pulses can avoid local overheat of microdischarges and can improve discharge efficiency under some conditions. In this paper, DBD excited by repetitive unipolar nanosecond generator was used to improve the hydrophobicity of Plexiglass (PMMA) surface by means of the interaction between air plasma and silicone oil. The output voltage had a rise time of 40 ns and a full width at half maximum of about 70 ns. The surface hydrophobicity of the PMMA, before and after the surface modification, was evaluated via the contact angle measurement under different experimental conditions. The values of the contact angle shown in this paper were the average of eight measured values, and the standard deviations were also calculated. The surface energy including polar and dispersion components was calculated using the measured average contact angles of distilled water and polyethyleneglycol. The results showed that, as the increase of the discharge voltage, the contact angle increased but the surface energy decreased. With the increase of treatment time, the water contact angle of the modified surface increased at the beginning, and it would reach to a maximum at 7.5 min treatment, and then decreased. The effect of pulse frequency on the modification results was different at various treatment times. In addition, the possible physical and chemical reaction among the DBD plasma, silicone oil and the PMMA surface was discussed.     

The interaction between a screw dislocation and an interfacial cruciform crack and collinear linear cracks

The interaction between a screw dislocation and an interfacial cruciform crack and collinear linear cracks under loads at infinity was investigated. General solutions of complex potentials to this problem were derived by using complex potential theory. As illustrative examples, the closed form solution for a screw dislocation interacting with an interfacial cruciform crack and a linear crack is obtained. The stress intensity factor and critical stress intensity factor for dislocation emission are also calculated. The results show that the shielding effect increases with the increase of the shear modulus and the distance between the two cracks, but it decreases with the increase of dislocation azimuth and the distance between the dislocation and the cruciform crack tip. The critical loads at infinity for dislocation emission increase with the increment of the emission angle, the distance the two cracks and the vertical length of the cruciform crack.     

Edge misfit dislocation formation at the interface of a nanopore and infinite substrate with surface/interface effects

The model of an edge misfit dislocation at the interface of the hollow nanopore and the infinite substrate with surface/interface stress is investigated. Using the complex variable method, analytical solutions for complex potentials of a film due to an edge misfit dislocation located in the film with surface/interface effect are derived, and the stress fields of the film and the edge misfit dislocation formation energy can be obtained. The critical conditions for edge misfit dislocation formation are given at which the generation of an edge misfit dislocation is energetically favourable. The influence of the ratio of the shear modulus between the film and the infinite substrate, the misfit strain, the radius of the nanopore and the surface/interface stress on the critical thickness of the film is discussed.     

Excellent扩张和弱维数

在这篇文章里，我们证明了，当环Ｓ是Ｒ的ｅｘｃｅｌｌｅｎｔ扩张，Ｍ是Ｓ－模时，Ｍ做为Ｓ－模的弱维数与Ｍ做为Ｒ－模的弱维数相等。     

Self-Assembled Multistable Scattering Mode for Versatile Energy-Saving Smart Windows

Smart windows are crucial to dynamic control over light transmission to fulfill various demands in energy saving, privacy, and information display; however, most present technologies still perform a single function (often tint or haze adjustment) and require continuous electricity for operation. In this study, novel self-assembled ionic liquid crystals (ILCs) doped with negative cholesteric liquid crystals (CLCs) to offer electrically switchable and stable scattering-mode light modulators are presented. The novel smectic A phase based on the ILCs exhibits high solubility in the adopted nematics, enhancing the LC device's performance in several ways, including improved homogeneity, stable alignment quality, prolonged stability, and simplified fabrication. The LC device can potentially offer a dynamically rapid switching function between stable transparent (imperfect fingerprint textures) states and stable scattering (focal conic textures with small domains) states by using external stimuli and highly maintained multistable states for prolonged periods, even when the external stimuli are removed. The LC device also offers polarization-independent scattering and transparent-mode LC light modulators, low operating voltage, excellent contrast, and broad viewing angles. Its versatility and outstanding field-off stability make it ideal for various applications such as smart lighting, building climate control, energy-saving displays, and augmented reality (AR) glasses.     

An improved evaluation of the neutron background in the PandaX-Ⅱ experiment

In dark matter direct detection experiments,neutron is a serious source of background,which can mimic the dark matter-nucleus scattering signals.In this paper,we present an improved evaluation of the neutron background in the PandaX-II dark matter experiment by a novel approach.Instead of fully relying on the Monte Carlo simulation,the overall neutron background is determined from the neutron-induced high energy signals in the data.In addition,the probability of producing a dark-matter-like background per neutron is evaluated with a complete Monte Carlo generator,where the correlated emission of neutron(s)andγ(s)in the(α,n)reactions and spontaneous fissions is taken into consideration.With this method,the neutron backgrounds in the Run 9(26-ton-day)and Run 10(28-ton-day)data sets of PandaX-II are estimated to be(0.66±0.24)and(0.47±0.25)events,respectively.     

超强频率梳激光场驱动下多光子共振谐波辐射的相位突变研究

本文从理论上研究了在双色频率梳激光场驱动下多光子谐波辐射光谱中的相位突变现象。我们利用Floquet理论非微扰地模拟了频率梳激光场与原子分子等量子系统的相互作用过程。谐波辐射信号是多光子偶极跃迁相干叠加的结果,通过调节频率梳激光场间的相对相位,可以相干地控制谐波辐射信号的强度。通过对谐波信号进行傅里叶变换,可以提取不同跃迁路径的相对相位信息。我们通过改变频率梳组激光场的强度和频率组分实现多光子跃迁频率,让其跨越共振跃迁频率时,谐波相位会发生突变。从而可以观测超强激光场驱动下量子系统共振跃迁频率的斯塔克能移。