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31.
This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.  相似文献   
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The feasibility of an 84 GHz, 500 kW, CW gyrotron for ECRH on an experimental tokamak will be presented in this paper. Mode competition and mode selection procedures are carefully investigated by considering various candidate modes and the TE10,4 mode is chosen as the operating mode. A conventional cylindrical cavity resonator with weak input and output tapers and parabolic roundings is considered for interaction studies. Self-consistent, both single mode and time-dependent, calculations are carried out and power and efficiencies are computed for a typical set of beam parameters. The results show that an output power of well over 500 kW, CW and efficiency around 40% can be reached without a depressed collector.  相似文献   
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The mass power spectrum for a Universe dominated by the Chaplygin gas is evaluated numerically from scales of the order of the Hubble horizon to 100 Mpc. The results are compared with a pure baryonic Universe and a cosmological constant model. In all three cases, the spectrum increases with k, the wavenumber of the perturbations. The slope of the spectrum is higher for the baryonic model and smaller for the cosmological constant model, the Chaplygin gas interpolating these two models. The results are analyzed in terms of the sound velocity of the Chaplygin gas and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate.  相似文献   
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In this paper, a two-dimensional finite volume unstructured mesh method (FVUM) based on a triangular background interpolation mesh is developed for analysing the evolution of the saltwater intrusion into single and multiple coastal aquifer systems. The model formulation consists of a ground-water flow equation and a salt transport equation. These coupled and non-linear partial differential equations are transformed by FVUM into a system of differential/algebraic equations, which is solved using backward differentiation formulas of order one through five. Simulation results are compared with previously published solutions where good agreement is observed.  相似文献   
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Optics and Spectroscopy - The relationship between the parameters of quadripoles (mirrors, for example) ensuring the fulfillment of the energy conservation law are considered. Apart from the...  相似文献   
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