Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Scanning tunnelling microscope studies of growth of RuO2（110） thin layer on Ru（0001）

This paper reports that the growth of RuO_x(110) thin layer growth on Ru(0001) has been investigated by means of scanning tunnelling microscope (STM). The STM images showed a domain structure with three rotational domains of RuO_x(110) rotated by an angle of 120℃. The as-grown RuO_x(110) thin layer is expanded from the bulk-truncated RuO_x(110) due to the large mismatch between RuO_x(110) and the Ru(0001) substrate. The results also indicate that growth of RuO_x(110) thin layer on the Ru(0001) substrate by oxidation tends first to formation of the Ru-O (oxygen) chains in the [001] direction of RuO_x(110).     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.     

非完整系统Chetaev动力学和vakonomic动力学的等价条件

就一般非完整约束系统，从约束方程满足的变分恒等式出发，利用增广位形流形上的向量场定义三类非自由变分，即非完整变分：vakonomic变分、Hlder变分、Suslov变分，并讨论它们之间的关系以及它们成为自由变分的充要条件.利用非完整变分以及相应的积分变分原理建立两类动力学方程：vakonomic方程和Routh方程或Chaplygin方程.通过vakonomic方程分别与Routh方程和Chaplygin方程比较，得到它们具有共同解的两类充分必要条件.这些条件并不是约束的可积性条件. 关键词： 非完整约束 非完整变分 Chetaev条件 vakonomic动力学