A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Molecular mobility in hydrogels based on poly(acrylic acid) and macrodiisocyanates

Partially water-swellable polymer networks were synthesized on the basis of poly(acrylic acid) and various macrodiisocyanates. Hydrophilic and hydrophobic local regions were revealed in swollen networks (hydrogels) by means of the spin probe technique. The local mobility in hydrophobic regions depends on the macrodiisocyanate structure; however, it is substantially lower than that in hydrophilic regions for all gels. It was assumed that the presence of hydrophobic and hydrophilic regions and the difference in their local dynamics must have a substantial effect on the pharmacokinetics of release of drugs immobilized in these hydrogels.     

Application of rainbow schlieren deflectometry to measure temperature and oxygen concentration in a laminar gas-jet diffusion flame

The quantitative rainbow schlieren deflectometry (RSD) technique was applied to measure temperature and oxygen concentration in an axisymmetric hydrogen gas-jet diffusion flame burning in quiescent air at fuel jet exit Reynolds number of 70. Schlieren measurements were compared with conventional measurements using a thermocouple and a gas-sampling probe. Good agreement between the two measurement techniques was achieved on the fuel-lean side of the flame.     

Flow regime identification in a two-phase flow using wavelet transform

This study addresses the problem of the automatic flow regime identification in two-phase flows in pipes. A novel wavelet transform-based approach is proposed and validated using time series of differential pressure fluctuations. The experimental data on the differential pressure measured in a vertically installed Venturi meter for air-water flow were analyzed and found to be appropriate for flow regime identification. The wavelet spectrum of the measured signal is shown to characterize the flow patterns completely, and the vector of the wavelet variances is proposed as the characteristic vector for use in an on-line flow regime identification system.     

A Recursive Algorithm for Order Cycle-time that Minimizes Logistics Cost

A firm's logistics cost, including shipping and inventory-carrying, is a substantial percentage of its sales. Nevertheless, typical inventory-control methods ignore or insufficiently represent the shipping cost. This paper describes a recursive algorithm that determines the reorder cycle-time that minimizes total logistics cost. It allows for a realistic accounting of shipping cost, which is modelled here as a function of shipping distance and weight. The algorithm uses a relaxation procedure to identify a suitable initial approximation to the optimal order cycle-time and then, through a series of recursive steps, moves to the optimal result. We demonstrate the algorithm with a single item, with a group of items that share a common order cycle, and with multi-items when item demands are random variables. Experience with this algorithm indicates that it converges to the optimal result in a very few steps.     

Structures and stability of Al<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">7</Emphasis></Subscript>C and Al<Subscript><Emphasis Type="Bold">7</Emphasis></Subscript>N clusters

We report results of the atomic and electronic structures of Al₇C cluster using ab initio molecular dynamics with ultrasoft pseudopotentials and generalized gradient approximation. The lowest energy structure is found to be the one in which carbon atom occupies an interstitial position in Al₇ cluster. The electronic structure shows that the recent observation [Chem. Phys. Lett. 316, 31 (2000)] of magic behavior of Al₇C^- cluster is due to a large highest occupied and lowest unoccupied molecular orbital (HOMO-LUMO) gap which makes Al₇C^- chemically inert. These results have further led us to the finding of a new neutral magic cluster Al₇N which has the same number of valence electrons as in Al₇C^- and a large HOMO-LUMO gap of 1.99 eV. Further, calculations have been carried out on (Al₇N)₂ to study interaction between magic clusters. Received 28 July 2001     

Nonlinear optical parameters and optical limitation in cobalt-doped polyvinylpyrrolidone solutions

Nonlinear optical parameters (nonlinear refractive indices and nonlinear absorption coefficients) of solutions of polyvinylpyrrolidone doped by cobalt to various concentrations are measured at the lasing and second-harmonic wavelengths of a picosecond Nd:YAG laser (λ=1064 and 532 nm, respectively, and τ=35 ps). Data on optical limitation in these solutions are presented. The absence of nonlinear absorption in the IR spectral range and its significant effect in the visible range are demonstrated. Optical limitation at a wavelength of 1064 nm is related to defocusing, whereas at 532 nm, this effect is caused by two-photon absorption and partially by inverse saturated absorption and defocusing. Nonlinear optical parameters of metal-polymer complexes are reported.     

Momentum transport and torque scaling in Taylor-Couette flow from an analogy with turbulent convection

We generalize an analogy between rotating and stratified shear flows. This analogy is summarized in Table 1. We use this analogy in the unstable case (centrifugally unstable flow vs. convection) to compute the torque in Taylor-Couette configuration, as a function of the Reynolds number. At low Reynolds numbers, when most of the dissipation comes from the mean flow, we predict that the non-dimensional torque G = T/ν² L, where L is the cylinder length, scales with Reynolds number R and gap width η, G = 1.46η^3/2(1 - η)^-7/4 R ^3/2. At larger Reynolds number, velocity fluctuations become non-negligible in the dissipation. In these regimes, there is no exact power law dependence the torque versus Reynolds. Instead, we obtain logarithmic corrections to the classical ultra-hard (exponent 2) regimes: G = 0.50 . These predictions are found to be in excellent agreement with avail-able experimental data. Predictions for scaling of velocity fluctuations are also provided. Received 7 June 2001 and Received in final form 7 December 2001     

A Stochastic Analysis of a Staffing Problem

Consider an organization with several categories of staff, each having a specified number of members. The age of entry into service and the age of retirement are both specified. Withdrawals occur at time-independent rates. Under this set-up, the authors have computed the maximum ages at which promotions should take place, assuming that the staff members continuing at various ages are random. Some illustrative calculations have been carried out.