Evaluation of the Kushida Method of short-term earthquake prediction

Kushida and Kushida found that FM radio waves from stations at distances over-the-horizon are received before earthquakes. Based on this finding, since the mid-1990’s, the Kushidas have been practicing “Earthquake Precursor Detection Experiment”. The performance of the Kushida method during 2000–2003 has been evaluated by checking their predictions against the actual seismicity. During the period, there were 92 Kushida predictions mentioning the possibility of M ≥ 5.5 event, whereas there were 49 M ≥ 5.5 earthquakes in the Japanese region. If the criteria for successful prediction are set as: the errors in date is less than one day, epicentral position is roughly within specified area, and error in M is less than 0.5, the success rate was 20% and the alarm rate was 12%. If we relax the criteria to: the errors in dates within 10 days, epicenter within additional 100 km of specified area and the magnitude error less than 1.0, the success rate was 40% and the alarm rate was 27%. These rates may look insufficient for a practical prediction method. Considering, however, the fact that no other short-term prediction has ever been made in Japan so far it is a significant achievement. Moreover, it was found that in almost all failed predictions, meaningful signals were detected although the interpretations were incorrect. This indicates that the method is promising provided further investigation is carried out. The same evaluation at the M ≥ 6.0 level showed that the general performance was similar to the M ≥ 5.5 level, except that both success rate and alarm rate were lower at the M ≥ 6.0 level. If this unexpected finding is real, it might be inherent to the methodology using scattering of short-wave length radio waves as suggested by M. Hayakawa and may contain important information in understanding the earthquake physics and LAI-coupling. The results of the present study indicate strongly that the earthquake prediction research using anomalous transmission of VHF FM radio waves should be enhanced in parallel with complementary research in other frequency ranges.     

The synthesis and reaction of N-sulfenyl heterocycles: development of effective sulfenylating reagents

Various N-sulfenyl heterocycles were synthesized by transamination of sulfenamides using a chlorine gas-free method. The N-sulfenyl heterocycles behaved as sulfenylating reagents of anilines; N-sulfenylbenzimidazoles were the most effective.     

Self-assembled lipid nanotube hosts: The dimension control for encapsulation of nanometer-scale guest substances

Supramolecular nanotube hosts with precisely controlled inner or outer diameters have been synthesized by self-assembly of unsymmetrical bolaamphiphilic monomers or glucopyranosylamide lipids, respectively. Time-resolved fluorescent measurement using 8-anilinonaphthalene-1-sulfonate (ANS) as a probe revealed that the water confined in a cardanyl-β-D -glucopyranoside lipid nanotube has relatively lower solvent polarity corresponding to that of propanol than bulk water. Extensively developed hydrogen bond networks also characterize the confined water in comparison to the case in bulk water. Encapsulation ability of the glucopyranosylamide lipid nanotube has been examined by filling the lyophilized LNTs with gold or silver nanoparticles, ferritin, or magnetic crystals. Filling the unsymmetrical bolaamphiphile nanotube possessing positively charged inner surfaces with negatively charged polymer beads or ferritin proved to be successful without depending on capillary action. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 44: 5137–5152, 2006     

Pressure and temperature effects on the excess deuteron and proton conductance

The limiting molar conductances ° of deuterium chloride DCl in D₂O were determined as a function of pressure and temperature in order to examine the proton-jump mechanism in detail. The excess deuteron conductances °_E(D ⁺), as estimated by the equation [°_E(D ⁺) = °(DCl/D ₂ O) – °(KCl/D ₂ O)], increases with an increase in the pressure and temperature as well as the excess proton conductance [°_E(H ⁺) = °(HCl/H ₂ O) – °(KCl/H ₂ O)]. The isotope effect on the excess conductances, however, depends on the pressure and temperature contrary to the model proposed by Conway et al.: °_E(H ⁺)/°_E(D ⁺) decreases with increasing pressure and temperature. The magnitude of the decrease with pressure becomes more prominent at lower temperature. These results are discussed in terms of the pre-rotation of adjacent water molecules, the bending of hydrogen bonds with pressure, and the difference in strength of hydrogen bonds between D₂O and H₂O.