Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

Observation of the nonlinear effect in relativistic Thomson scattering of electron and laser beams

Thomson scattering of high-power laser and electron beams is a good test of electrodynamics in the high-field region. We demonstrated production of high-intensity X-rays in the head-on collision of a CO₂ laser and 60-MeV electron beams at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Accelerator Test Facility. The energy of an X-ray photon was limited at 6.5 keV in the linear (lowest order) Thomson scattering, but the nonlinear (higher order) process produces higher energy X-rays. We measured the angular distribution of the high-energy X-rays and confirmed that it agrees with theoretical predictions.     

Advantages of NIR radiation use for optical determination of skin horny layer thickness with embedded TiO2 nanoparticles during tape stripping procedure

The tape stripping technique is an experimental method frequently used for reconstruction of the in-depth distribution of various topically administered substances within the horny layer of human skin, e.g., compounds contained in sunscreens. Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticles (25–200 nm in diameter) are one such compound. Optical techniques which apply blue light are found to be suitable for reconstruction. However, the presence of particles affects the light propagation within the skin and therefore causes incorrect determination of strip thickness, leading to an improper reconstructed distribution of nanoparticle concentration revealed from the experimental data. This study evaluates the errors emerging from the use of blue (400 nm) and NIR (800 nm) radiation and finds the use of longer wavelength light more advantageous. Particles of different diameters are considered, and it is revealed that the application of small particles (25–60 nm) results in the lowest rate of error.     

A study of structural, compositional and optical properties of spray-deposited non-stoichiometric (Zn,Fe)S thin films

Non-stoichiometric ternary chalcogenides (Zn,Fe)S were prepared in the film form by pyrolytic spray deposition technique, using air/nitrogen as the carrier gas. The precursor solution comprised of ZnCl₂, FeCl₂ and thiourea. The depositions were carried out under optimum conditions of experimental parameters viz. carrier gas (air/nitrogen) flow rate, concentration of precursor constituents, nozzle substrate distance and temperature of quartz substrate. The deposited thin films were later sintered in argon at 1073 K for 120 min.The structural, compositional and optical properties of the sintered thin films were studied. X-ray diffraction studies of the thin films indicated the presence of (Zn,Fe)S solid solution with prominent cubic sphalerite phase while surface morphology as determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a granular structure.The chemical composition of the resulting thin films as analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX) reflected the composition of the precursor solutions from which the depositions were carried out with Fe at% values ranging from 0.4 up to 33.SEM micrographs of thin films reveal that the grain sizes of the thin films prepared using air as carrier gas and N₂ as carrier gas are in the vicinity of 300 and 150 nm, respectively.The diffuse transmittance measurements for thin films, as a function of wavelength reveal the dependence of direct optical band gap on Fe content and type of phase.     

Study of thermal currents in powder β-spodumene ceramics doped with Cuo, FeO and TiO2

Ternary-phase ceramic system of Li₂O Al₂O₃ 4SiO₂ doped with CuO, FeO and TiO₂ has been prepared and subjected to dc electrical conductivity and thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) measurements as a function of temperature (30-250 °C) and field strength. The electrical conductivity results are explained by assuming both ionic and electronic conduction mechanisms coexist with different contributions over the whole temperature range of experiments. TSDC spectra have been found to be characterized by a broad intense relaxation peak, which can be attributed to an ionic charge polarization. The broad relaxation transitions are apparently a result of the nonuniform nature of this process. Activation energies are calculated for both dc electrical conductivity and TSDC according to Arrhenius equation and initial rise method, respectively.     

A study of formation of solid ionic conductors in the mixed system (CdI2)b[(Ag2O)·(CrO3)]100-b (20≤b≤80)

Using Wagner's polarization technique and EMF method the joinic and silver ionic transport number measurements of various compositions of the mixed system CdI₂-Ag₂O-CrO₃ have been made. The presence of AgI in these materials has been inferred from the typical β → α phase transition of AgI, which is characterized by an endothermic peak at around 420 K in the DSC traces of these specimens. While the structural analysis performed by means of powder X-ray diffraction has revealed the formation of ionic phases involving polycrystalline compounds, the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopic results have indicated the presence of ionic species thus confirming the ionic nature of the products. The complex impedance studies carried out in the frequency range 20 Hz - 1 MHz and over the temperature range 294 – 442 K have revealed that the best conducting composition, namely 55%(CdI₂) – 45%(Ag₂O·CrO₃), would exhibit a silver ionic conductivity of 1.3×10⁻⁵Scm⁻¹ at 294 K.     

Portable and Automatic Mössbauer Analysis

A portable Mössbauer spectrometer, developed for extraterrestrial applications, opens up new industrial applications of MBS. But for industrial applications, an available tool for fast data analysis is also required, and it should be easy to handle. The analysis of Mössbauer spectra and their parameters is a barrier for the popularity of this wide-applicable spectroscopic technique in industry. Based on experience, the analysis of a Mössbauer spectrum is time-consuming and requires the dedication of a specialist. However, the analysis of Mössbauer spectra, from the fitting to the identification of the sample phases, can be faster using by genetic algorithms, fuzzy logic and artificial neural networks. Industrial applications are very specific ones and the data analysis can be performed using these algorithms. In combination with an automatic analysis, the Mössbauer spectrometer can be used as a probe instrument which covers the main industrial needs for an on-line monitoring of its products, processes and case studies. Some of these real industrial applications will be discussed.     

Observation of dielectronic satellites in the K-spectrum of argon ions in plasma produced by femtosecond laser pulses

The satellite structure of 1s2p ^1,3 P ₁-1s ²¹ S ₀ lines of the He-like argon ion in plasma produced by a 45-fs laser pulse in a gas-jet cluster target is measured with a high spectral resolution. Radiation transitions 2p → 1s from autoionizing states (AISs) are detected for ions ranging from Li-like to F-like. The spectrum observed is theoretically simulated with the use of the spectroscopic data for the AISs of multicharged ions obtained within the multiconfiguration relativistic Hartree-Fock method. Good agreement with experimental data is obtained when the main population channels of these states are taken into account for typical values of cluster-target plasma parameters.     

Coherent Type-B e + e- Pair Production by Photons in a Crystal

An overview of theoretical and experimental studies of the coherent type-B e ⁺ e-pair production by photons in aligned crystals performed at Nuclear Physics Institute at Tomsk Polytechnic University is given.     

Probe measurements in a discharge with liquid nonmetallic electrodes in air at atmospheric pressure

Discharges with liquid nonmetallic electrodes of much interest for applications are investigated. It is found that a dc discharge between two streams of tap water in air at atmospheric pressure is stable at a currentof 40≤I≤100 mA. The discharge exists in the diffuse (volume) form with a relatively low current density (∼0.2 A/cm²) and a high (above one kilovolt) voltage drop across the air gap (∼1 cm) between the water electrodes. The current density and voltage depend only slightly on the discharge current. Probe measurements show that three regions can be distinguished in the discharge: two electrode regions (1–2 mm in length) and a discharge column with a constant electric field of ≈0.8 kV/cm (i.e., E/N≈20 Td, because the gas in the discharge is heated up to 1500–2000 K). The average electric field strength near the electrodes is E≈2–3×10³ V/cm (E/N≈60–80 Td). The charged particle density in the column is n ∼ 10¹² cm⁻³. The probe measurements of n agree with the previous microwave absorption measurements. The water vapor concentration in the column is also estimated from probe measurements.