A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Existence and Stability for Spherical Crystals Growing in a Supersaturated Solution

We consider the growth of a spherical crystal in a supersaturatedsolution. In the first part, existence and uniqueness resultsfor radially symmetric growth are obtained, provided that thesupersaturation is not too large; conversely, when the far-fieldsupersaturation exceeds a critical value, it is shown that theradially symmetric solution ceases to exist in finite time.In the second part, we examine the linear stability of a radiallysymmetric similarity solution (in which the radius grows ast?) to shape perturbations. The results are compared with previousquasi-static analyses, and, in particular, the critical radiusat which the crystal becomes unstable is found to be largerfor small supersaturations, but smaller for large supersaturations,than those predicted by the quasi-static analysis     

Synthesis of methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside

A convenient method is proposed for the synthesis of all the individual methyl ethers of methyl 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside based on the partial methylation of 2-acetamido-2-deoxy-α-D-glucopyranoside with dimethyl sulfate in an alkaline medium followed by preparative liquid column chromatography on silica gel of the resulting mixture of methyl ethers.     

Organotellurides as a source of organometallics: application in the synthesis of (+/−)-frontalin

A masked lithium homoenolate, generated by tellurium/lithium exchange, was reacted with epoxides. The lithium compound was also converted into other organometallics such as Grignard, and cuprates and the reactivity of those organometallics with epoxides was evaluated. The same building block was employed in the synthesis of (+/−)-frontalin.     

The matrix equation AX-YB=C and related problems

The main result of the paper is a theorem, using which a new proof of Roth’s theorem is obtained, a new solvability criterion for the matrix equation AX-YB = C is proved, a formula for a particular solution of the latter is derived, and the least of the orders of square nonsingular matrices containing a given rectangular matrix as a submatrix is determined. Bibliography: 5 titles. __________ Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 323, 2005, pp. 15–23.