On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

偏振分束器对光学电流传感器稳定性的影响

采用偏振光学理论,详细分析了光学电流传感器中偏振分束器消光比的变化对传感器性能的影响,得到了偏振分束器消光比与传感器输出的关系式,并用系统实验进行了验证.理论及实验结果的吻合证明了光学电流传感器稳定性直接受偏振分束器两路消光比影响的结论.     

Naphthalimide-thiazoles as novel photonucleases: molecular design, synthesis, and evaluation

A new family of photonucleases, naphthalimide-thiazoles was synthesized and evaluated. These compounds intercalated into DNA efficiently and damaged DNA photochemically at concentrations as low as 5 μM. Mechanistic experiment suggests that a novel naphthalimide-thiazole radical produced via an excited triple state might be involved in the DNA photodamage. Different activity may arise from the impact of substituents at 2-phenyl ring of thiazole on the electron population of excited triple state according to AM1 semi-empirical calculation.     

浮栅ROM器件辐射效应机理分析

分析了浮栅ROM器件的辐射效应机理，合理地解释了实验中观察到的现象.指出辐射产生的电子空穴对在器件中形成的氧化物陷阱电荷和界面陷阱电荷是导致存储单元及其外围电路出现错误的原因.浮栅ROM器件的中子、质子和⁶⁰Co γ辐射效应都是总剂量效应 . 关键词： FLASH ROM EEPROM 中子 质子 60Co γ')" href="#">⁶⁰Co γ 总剂量效应     

On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

A new stochastic method of reconstructing porous media

We present a new stochastic method of reconstructing porous medium from limited morphological information obtained from two-dimensional micro- images of real porous medium. The method is similar to simulated annealing method in the capability of reconstructing both isotropic and anisotropic structures of multi-phase but differs from the latter in that voxels for exchange are not selected completely randomly as their neighborhood will also be checked and this new method is much simpler to implement and program. We applied it to reconstruct real sandstone utilizing morphological information contained in porosity, two-point probability function and linear-path function. Good agreement of those references verifies our developed method’s powerful capability. The existing isolated regions of both pore phase and matrix phase do quite minor harm to their good connectivity. The lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) is used to compute the permeability of the reconstructed system and the results show its good isotropy and conductivity. However, due to the disadvantage of this method that the connectivity of the reconstructed system’s pore space will decrease when porosity becomes small, we suggest the porosity of the system to be reconstructed be no less than 0.2 to ensure its connectivity and conductivity.     

Existence of Pulsating Roll-Waves for the Saint Venant System

The phenomenon of roll-waves occurs when shallow water flows down open inclined channels. This flow is described by the Saint Venant’s equations with a friction term due to Chezy. In the case of a flat bottom, their existence (as entropic and periodic travelling waves) follows from a classical work due to DRESSLER [6]. The aim of this paper is to prove the existence of roll-waves when the bottom is modulated by a small periodic perturbation. Following JIN and KATSOULAKIS [15], we first compute a Burgers-type equation which possesses “pulsating” roll-waves (the wave speed oscillates around an average velocity). We prove, in a mathematically rigorous fashion, the existence of these solutions.     

基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片造型方法的研究

本文以偏微分方程造型为基础,提出了一种基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片三维型面直接设计方法,详细推导了叶型曲面函数,给出了型面方程的求解及其前后缘修正。该方法具有设计叶型曲面自然光顺,设计参数少且各参数具有明显的几何意义,叶型曲面调整方便,利于采用非数值优化算法对其进行气动优化等优点。文中给出了设计实例,并通过数值实验分析了所设计叶片型面的流动特性。分析结果表明设计叶片具有良好的气动性能,同时也证明了本文提出的基于椭圆型方程的扭叶片三维型面设计方法的可靠性和实用性。     

三核铜（I）配合物的合成与荧光光谱

室温下，通过双核配合物[Cu(dppm)(NO3)]2(dppm=双二苯基膦甲烷)与四苯基硼钠在甲醇和二氯甲烷混合溶剂中反应制备了三核铜(I)配合物[Cu3(dppm)3(NO3)(OH)](NO3)，经过红外光谱、热重分析、核磁和ES-MS等现代分析手段表征了配合物的物理化学性质，并进一步研究了配合物在室温下的荧光光谱特征。