This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included. 相似文献
Overdamped particles subject to a drift in a force field with sinusoidal space dependence and also a sinusoidally modulated space-dependent diffusion, with the same period as the drift, experience a net driving force. The resulting current depends on the amplitude of the modulation of the diffusion and is a periodic function of the phase difference between the sinusoidal drift and the sinusoidal modulation of the diffusion. For small modulation amplitudes a particle subject to state-dependent noise behaves the same way as a particle subject to thermal noise but with a drift which, in addition to the sinusoidal term, contains a net force term.Dedicated to Professor Harry Thomas on the occasion of his 60th birthday 相似文献
Using the method of the tensor Green’s function of the wave equation, the differential and total cross sections for the scattering of surface optical electromagnetic waves (surface plasmon polaritons) by a spherical nanoparticle into surface plasmon polaritons and light have been obtained with the inclusion of the magnetic dipole contribution. Using the example of noble metal systems, it has been shown that the magnetic dipole contribution may significantly affect the angular dependence of the differential cross sections and increase their anisotropy as the plasmon wavelength increases. 相似文献
Space-time directional Lyapunov exponents are introduced. They describe the maximal velocity of propagation to the right or to the left of fronts of perturbations in a frame moving with a given velocity. The continuity of these exponents as function of the velocity and an inequality relating them to the directional entropy is proved. 相似文献
The feasibility of an 84 GHz, 500 kW, CW gyrotron for ECRH on an experimental tokamak will be presented in this paper. Mode
competition and mode selection procedures are carefully investigated by considering various candidate modes and the TE10,4 mode is chosen as the operating mode. A conventional cylindrical cavity resonator with weak input and output tapers and parabolic
roundings is considered for interaction studies. Self-consistent, both single mode and time-dependent, calculations are carried
out and power and efficiencies are computed for a typical set of beam parameters. The results show that an output power of
well over 500 kW, CW and efficiency around 40% can be reached without a depressed collector. 相似文献
The mass power spectrum for a Universe dominated by the Chaplygin gas is evaluated numerically from scales of the order of the Hubble horizon to 100 Mpc. The results are compared with a pure baryonic Universe and a cosmological constant model. In all three cases, the spectrum increases with k, the wavenumber of the perturbations. The slope of the spectrum is higher for the baryonic model and smaller for the cosmological constant model, the Chaplygin gas interpolating these two models. The results are analyzed in terms of the sound velocity of the Chaplygin gas and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate. 相似文献
The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm−3 and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F2 layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F2 layer, f0F2, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f0F2 appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral Es appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral Es and weak Pc3 pulsation.
Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models. 相似文献