A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

An algebraic characterization ofB-convergent Runge-Kutta methods

Summary In the analysis of discretization methods for stiff intial value problems, stability questions have received most part of the attention in the past.B-stability and the equivalent criterion algebraic stability are well known concepts for Runge-Kutta methods applied to dissipative problems. However, for the derivation ofB-convergence results — error bounds which are not affected by stiffness — it is not sufficient in many cases to requireB-stability alone. In this paper, necessary and sufficient conditions forB-convergence are determined.This paper was written while J. Schneid was visiting the Centre for Mathematics and Computer Science with an Erwin-Schrödinger stipend from the Fonds zur Förderung der wissenschaftlichen Forschung     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

Stability of a Model of Relativistic Quantum Electrodynamics

The relativistic “no pair” model of quantum electrodynamics uses the Dirac operator, D(A) for the electron dynamics together with the usual self-energy of the quantized ultraviolet cutoff electromagnetic field A– in the Coulomb gauge. There are no positrons because the electron wave functions are constrained to lie in the positive spectral subspace of some Dirac operator, D, but the model is defined for any number, N, of electrons, and hence describes a true many-body system. In addition to the electrons there are a number, K, of fixed nuclei with charges ≤Z. If the fields are not quantized but are classical, it was shown earlier that such a model is always unstable (the ground state energy E=−∞) if one uses the customary D(0) to define the electron space, but is stable (E > − const.(N+K)) if one uses D(A) itself (provided the fine structure constant α and Z are not too large). This result is extended to quantized fields here, and stability is proved for α= 1/137 and Z≤ 42. This formulation of QED is somewhat unusual because it means that the electron Hilbert space is inextricably linked to the photon Fock space. But such a linkage appears to better describe the real world of photons and electrons. Received: 8 September 2001 / Accepted: 18 March 2002     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

VIBRATION OF TWISTED AND CURVED CYLINDRICAL PANELS WITH VARIABLE THICKNESS

A numerical procedure, with an exact strain-displacement relationship of twisted and curved cylindrical panels having variable thickness derived by considering the Green strain tensor on general shell theory, is presented using the principle of virtual work and the Rayleigh-Ritz method with algebraic polynomials as in-plane and transverse displacement functions. The accuracy and applicability of the procedure are verified by comparing the present results with previous experimental and theoretical results for several panels. The effects of variation ratio of thickness in chordwise and lengthwise directions, twist, and curvature both in two directions aforementioned on vibrations of cylindrical panels are studied in detail, and typical vibration mode shapes are plotted to demonstrate the effects.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Ermakov Approach for Minisuperspace Oscillators

The Wheeler–DeWitt equation of arbitrary Hartle–Hawking factor ordering for several minisuperspace universe models, such as the pure gravity Friedmann–Robertson–Walker and Taub ones, is mapped onto the dynamics of corresponding classical oscillators. The latter ones are studied by the classical Ermakov invariant method, which is a natural approach in this context. For the more realistic case of a minimally coupled massive scalar field, one can study, within the same type of approach, the corresponding squeezing features as a possible means of describing cosmological evolution. Finally, we comment on the analogy with the accelerator physics.