Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

355nm Nd∶YAG激光在H_2中的高效一级斯托克斯转换

对脉冲Nd∶YAG激光(355 nm)在H2和H2∶He-Ar混合气体中的受激拉曼散射(SRS)进行了研究。在0.5 MPa的氢气中,同时测量到从二级反斯托克斯到三级斯托克斯的多波长输出,其总转化效率达88%;而高压下只剩下一级和二级斯托克斯输出,其中二级斯托克斯最大能量转化效率达44%(对应量子效率为63%)。由于高级斯托克斯的竞争,纯氢气中一级斯托克斯的最大能量转换效率不超过43%。通过向3 MPa氢气中掺入2 MPaAr气后,很好地抑制了二级斯托克斯的产生,从而获得了能量转换效率高达71%(对应量子效率为83%)的一级斯托克斯输出。对四波混频和级联受激拉曼散射在氢气多级斯托克斯产生中的作用以及惰性气体对它们的影响进行了讨论。     

k-树的补图的最小填充和树宽

一个图的最小填充问题是寻求边数最少的弦母图,一个图的树宽问题是寻求团数最小的弦母图,这两个问题分别在稀疏矩阵计算及图的算法设计中有非常重要的作用．一个k-树G的补图G称为k-补树．本文给出了k-补树G的最小填充数f(G) 及树宽TW(G)．     

The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm⁻³ and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F₂ layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F₂ layer, f₀F₂, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f₀F₂ appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E_s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E_s and weak Pc3 pulsation.

     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Scanning tunnelling microscope studies of growth of RuO2（110） thin layer on Ru（0001）

This paper reports that the growth of RuO_x(110) thin layer growth on Ru(0001) has been investigated by means of scanning tunnelling microscope (STM). The STM images showed a domain structure with three rotational domains of RuO_x(110) rotated by an angle of 120℃. The as-grown RuO_x(110) thin layer is expanded from the bulk-truncated RuO_x(110) due to the large mismatch between RuO_x(110) and the Ru(0001) substrate. The results also indicate that growth of RuO_x(110) thin layer on the Ru(0001) substrate by oxidation tends first to formation of the Ru-O (oxygen) chains in the [001] direction of RuO_x(110).     

大学物理课程网络辅助教学系统的构建与应用

本文介绍了上海交通大学大学物理课程网络辅助教学系统的设计思想、整体结构和主要的功能模块，概述了运用网络辅助教学系统实施“课堂教学＋网络辅助教学”：这种教学模式的应用情况．     

激光等离子体2660紫外探针及干涉系统

成功地在六路高功率Nd玻璃激光装置上建立了2660紫外激光探针和适合紫外波段的Normaski干涉仪,首次将可见波长的连续激光应用于紫外干涉仪中靶成像调整和光路准直。利用该紫外光干涉仪,在铜柱状靶(φ500μm)上测量了厚等离子体中高达0.6n。的电子密度。     

A Language for Teaching Discrete-event Simulation

Courses which teach discrete-event simulation are based on many different simulation languages. The requirements for a language to support teaching simulation are discussed. In particular, it is recommended that such languages separate into distinct modules those aspects of simulation which are taught as separate topics. Implementation of the separation is discussed. The SEESIM language, developed as a teaching aid, is described, and examples of its use are given. Straightforward use of SEESIM can be learned quickly, yet the language provides facilities for a staged introduction to advanced concepts of simulation.