Prädikatives und funktionales Denken in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung

In order to emphasize functional thinking in mathematical education, arguments are brought forward for an early and frequent use of tree diagrams in teaching stochastics. Since set and tree diagrams can be regarded as two sides of the same matter, Bayes’ theorem, which is strongly associated with predicative set diagrams, need not be dealt with explicitly any longer. Set diagrams are replaced by tree diagrams that are labelled in detail and by tree inversion as a functional instrument of dealing with conditioned probabilities. This technique is demonstrated by three typical problems in the context of conditioned probability. Finally, two letters by Pascal to Fermat are analysed in order to illustrate that predicative and functional approaches were already pursued in the early stages of probability calculus in the 17^th century.     

A New Modal Lindström Theorem

We prove new Lindstr?m theorems for the basic modal propositional language, and for some related fragments of first-order logic. We find difficulties with such results for modal languages without a finite-depth property, high-lighting the difference between abstract model theory for fragments and for extensions of first-order logic. In addition we discuss new connections with interpolation properties, and the modal invariance theorem. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): Primary 03B45; Secondary 03C95     

Simple Constructions of Almost k-wise Independent Random Variables

We present three alternative simple constructions of small probability spaces on n bits for which any k bits are almost independent. The number of bits used to specify a point in the sample space is (2 + o(1)) (log log n + k/2 + log k + log 1/?), where ? is the statistical difference between the distribution induced on any k bit locations and the uniform distribution. This is asymptotically comparable to the construction recently presented by Naor and Naor (our size bound is better as long as ? < 1/(k log n)). An additional advantage of our constructions is their simplicity.