On the Evaluation of Uncertain Courses of Action

We consider the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The fuzzy measure is introduced as a general way of representing available information about the uncertainty. It is noted that generally in uncertain environments the problem of comparing alternative courses of action is difficult because of the multiplicity of possible outcomes for any action. One approach is to convert this multiplicity of possible of outcomes associated with an alternative into a single value using a valuation function. We describe various ways of providing a valuation function when the uncertainty is represented using a fuzzy measure. We then specialize these valuation functions to the cases of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty.     

A solar radio moving type IV burst of expanding arches type involving multi-sources

A complex solar radio moving type IV burst was observed on 23 September 1998 with the broadband (1.0–2.0 GHz and 2.6–3.8 GHz) spectrometers with high temporal and spectral resolutions at National Astronomical Observatories of China (NAOC). Comparing to the high spatial resolution data of Siberian Solar Radio Telescope (SSRT), we find that this burst is a rare type of moving type IV burst which is caused by the expanding arches, and the spatial structure oscillations of the radio sources are related with the time structure pulsations of the radio emission. Furthermore, the burst is associated with the multiple quasi-periodic long-term pulsations, and this suggests the existence of multi-scale magnetic structures in a large expanding coronal arch. We think the moving type IV burst is due to the synchrotron emission of the energetic electrons trapped in the expanding arch, and the multiple quasi-periodic pulsations are due to the second harmonic plasma emission.     

Approximate and Exact Small Signal Analysis for Single-Mode Fiber Near Zero Dispersion Wavelength with Higher Order Dispersion

This article presents the comparison of approximate and exact small-signal theories for analyzing the influence of the higher-order dispersion terms on dispersive optical communication systems operating near zero dispersion wavelength for linear single-mode fiber. For the approximate theory, the generalized conversion matrix has been reported and gives the transfer function of intensity and phase from the fiber input to fiber output for a laser source including the influence of any higher-order dispersion term. In addition, expressions for the small-signal frequency response and the relative intensity noise (RIN) response of an ultrafast laser diode including noises are derived. However, it is observed that the approximation assumed for the second-order dispersion term for the approximate analysis is not valid. From the approximate theory, the exact generalized conversion matrix and exact expressions for small-signal frequency response and relative intensity noise (RIN) are obtained. We show that for the exact theory, the second-order dispersion term has no effect on intensity and frequency response even at large modulating frequencies and large propagation distances contrary to the approximate theory as reported by other authors. But we show that third-order dispersion term certainly has some minute impact on the frequency and RIN response for long distance links at high modulating frequencies.     

The effect of microscopic features upon the transmissivity of enclosed laser ablated laminated metallised polymer films

A vacuum-deposited aluminium layer (20 nm) is sandwiched between two layers of laminated oriented polypropylene (OPP) film whose thickness varies from 20 to 40 μm. Selected areas of this sealed system were transparentised by the redistribution of the aluminium layer without breaking the seal or causing damage to the OPP film using a 75 W Q-switched Nd:YAG laser. The resultant transparentised films contain aluminium particles, distorted polymer areas and intact areas of the vacuum-coated aluminium layer. This paper investigates the effect of microscopic features upon the overall transmissivity of the laser-treated films and hence the quality of the transparentisation process.     

Modelling for the planning and management of bed capacities in hospitals

The internal dynamics of a hospital represent a complex non-linear structure. Planning and management of bed capacities must be evaluated within an environment of uncertainty, variability and limited resources. A common approach is to plan and manage capacities based on simple deterministic spreadsheet calculations. This paper demonstrates that these calculations typically do not provide the appropriate information and result in underestimating true bed requirements. More sophisticated, flexible and necessarily detailed capacity models are needed. The development and use of such a simulation model is presented in this paper. The modelling work, in conjunction with a major UK NHS Trust, considers various types of patient flows, at the individual patient level, and resulting bed needs over time. The consequence of changes in capacity planning policies and management of existing capacities can be readily examined. The work has highlighted the need for evaluating hospital bed capacities in light of both bed occupancies and refused admission rates. The relationship between occupancy and refusals is complex and often overlooked by hospital managers.     

Extension of a combined analytical/numerical initial value problem solver for unsteady periodic flow

Here we describe analytical and numerical modifications that extend the Differential Reduced Ejector/ mixer Analysis (DREA), a combined analytical/numerical, multiple species ejector/mixing code developed for preliminary design applications, to apply to periodic unsteady flow. An unsteady periodic flow modelling capability opens a range of pertinent simulation problems including pulse detonation engines (PDE), internal combustion engine ICE applications, mixing enhancement and more fundamental fluid dynamic unsteadiness, e.g. fan instability/vortex shedding problems. Although mapping between steady and periodic forms for a scalar equation is a classical problem in applied mathematics, we will show that extension to systems of equations and, moreover, problems with complex initial conditions are more challenging. Additionally, the inherent large gradient initial condition singularities that are characteristic of mixing flows and that have greatly influenced the DREA code formulation, place considerable limitations on the use of numerical solution methods. Fortunately, using the combined analytical–numerical form of the DREA formulation, a successful formulation is developed and described. Comparison of this method with experimental measurements for jet flows with excitation shows reasonable agreement with the simulation. Other flow fields are presented to demonstrate the capabilities of the model. As such, we demonstrate that unsteady periodic effects can be included within the simple, efficient, coarse grid DREA implementation that has been the original intent of the DREA development effort, namely, to provide a viable tool where more complex and expensive models are inappropriate. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Elastic and Thermophysical Properties of Poly(Vinyl Chloride) and Chlorinated Polyethylene Blends

The results of experimental and theoretical investigations of elastic and thermophysical properties of poly(vinyl chloride) (PVC) and chlorinated polyethylene (CPE) blends are presented. Eight types of specimens with different ratios of weight contents of PVC and CPE (PVC/CPE = 100/0, 90/10, 80/20, 60/40, 40/60, 20/80, 10/90, and 0/100) were tested. The effect of blend composition on the elastic constants (tensile and shear modulus) is discussed. The data on the thermal conductivity, thermal diffusivity, and heat capacity of the blends investigated are also presented.     

Calculation of the Knight shift in palladium

The direct and the exchange core polarization (ECP) contributions of the conduction electrons to the Knight shift of palladium are evaluated. To obtain the wave functions for the conduction electrons and the partial densities of states at the Fermi surface a KKR energy band calculation was performed. The contributions of the core electrons to the Knight shift were determined by using the moment perturbation method (MP). Electron-electron interactions are taken into account by individual enhancement factors for thed ands electrons. The agreement between the theoretical results and the available experimental data is quite satisfactory.     

A simple and realistic triton wave function

We propose a simple triton wave function that consists of a product of three correlation operators operating on a three-body spin-isospin state. This wave function is formally similar to that used in the recent variational theories of nuclear matter, the main difference being in the long-range behavior of the correlation operators. Variational calculations are carried out with the Reid potential, using this wave function in the so-called “symmetrized product” and “independent pair” forms. The triton energy and density distributions obtained with the symmetrized product wave function agree with those obtained in Faddeev and other variational calculations using harmonic oscillator states. The proposed wave function and calculational methods can be easily generalized to treat the four-nucleon α-particle.     

Formulation of scattering theory for the nonlinear Schrödinger equation with boundary conditions of the finite density type in a soliton-free sector

Asymptotic canonical variables and the classical S matrix for the nonlinear Schrödinger model with nonzero boundary conditions are calculated in terms of spectral data of an auxiliary linear operator, subject to the condition that a discrete spectrum does not exist.Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova AN SSSR, Vol. 169, pp. 60–67, 1988.