Investment Decisions under Uncertainty and Variability — Some Practical Experiences of Using Forecasts and Probabilities

This paper illustrates by three practical examples the use of forecasts and probabilities in making actual investment decisions. In each case the use of a simple forecast would lead to a wrong decision. The emphasis throughout is on the interaction between management and the operational research scientist. The three examples discussed in the paper are: (a) Study of future production capacity, where future demand is uncertain; (b) Study of storage facilities, where demand is variable and there is a risk of losing custom; (c) Study of future pipe-line capacity, where throughput is variable and there was uncertainty when to invest. The paper concludes with a discussion on the effects of variability, uncertainty and risk on the decision criterion, and on the decisions made.     

Analysis of the pressure-induced potential arising through composite membranes with selective surface layers

When a pressure gradient is applied through a charged selective membrane, the transmembrane electrical potential difference, called the filtration potential, results from both the applied pressure and induced concentration difference across the membrane. In this work we investigate the electrokinetic properties relative to both active and support layers of a composite ceramic membrane close to the nanofiltration range. First, the volume charge density of the active layer is obtained by fitting a transport model to experimental rejection rates (which are controlled by the active layer only). Next, the value of the volume charge density is used to compute the theoretical filtration potential through the active layer. For sufficiently high permeate volume fluxes, the concentration difference across the active layer becomes constant, which allows assessing the membrane potential of the active layer. Experimental measurements of the overall filtration potential arising through the whole membrane are performed. The contribution of the support layer to this overall filtration potential is put in evidence. That implies that the membrane potential of the active layer cannot be deduced directly from the overall filtration potential measurements. Finally, the contribution of the support layer is singled out by subtracting the theoretical filtration potential of the active layer from the experimental filtration potential measured across the whole membrane (i.e., support + active layers). The amphoteric behavior of both layers is put in evidence, which is confirmed by electrophoretic measurements carried out with the powdered support layer and by recently reported tangential streaming potential measurements.     

Enzymatic synthesis of layered titanium phosphates at low temperature and neutral pH by cell-surface display of silicatein-alpha

We introduce a novel method of inorganic synthesis using the catalytic and structure-directing properties of the demosponge enzyme silicatein-alpha. Recombinant silicatein-alpha was displayed at the surface of Escherichia coli cells by fusion to outer membrane protein A and used to biocatalytically direct the formation of layered and amorphous titanium phosphates from a small water-soluble precursor at near-neutral pH at 16 degrees C. Synthesis of titanium phosphates, with potential applications in catalysis and separation technology, previously has required prolonged reactions with phosphoric acid at elevated temperatures. Additionally, we use library screening to isolate a 15-mer with affinity toward the silicatein active site (Kd ca. 50 nM) and introduce this new approach to demonstrate the success of our display strategy. Considering our previous findings with native silicatein filaments, we suggest that this scalable, efficient, cell-based system may have a broad utility for the synthesis of a range of structured metallophosphates and other inorganic materials.     

Tris(pyronato)- and tris(pyridonato)-ruthenium(III) complexes and solution NMR studies

The water-soluble Ru(III) maltolato, ethylmaltolato, and pyridonato complexes, Ru(O-O')3 (O-O' = ma (1a), etma (1b), pyd (2a)), were synthesized (Hma = 3-hydroxy-2-methyl-4-pyrone, Hetma = 2-ethyl-3-hydroxy-4-pyrone, Hpyd = 3-hydroxy-1,2-dimethyl-4-pyridone). The complexes were characterized by elemental analysis, NMR and IR spectroscopies, MS, solution conductivity, and cyclic voltammetry, and in the case of Ru(ma)(3), by X-ray crystallography, which revealed a mer configuration. The paramagnetic 1H NMR resonances of 1a, 1b, and 2a were assigned using 2D methods (1H COSY and 1H-13C HMQC) and variable-temperature 1H NMR data and showed that 1a and 1b exist in aqueous solution predominantly as a mer isomer, while 2a is a mixture of mer and fac isomers. Although a 13C NMR spectrum could not be measured directly for 1a, a partial (13)C spectrum was generated from the 1H-13C HMQC spectrum. Complexes 1a and 1b were tested for anti-proliferatory activity against the human breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-435S and gave IC50 values of 140 and 90 microM, respectively.     

Study of the selectivity of reversed-phase columns for the separation of polycarboxylic acids and polyphenol compounds

A systematic investigation was undertaken into the relative separation performance of five reversed-phase chromatography columns including some commercially new hybrid packed columns for a series of polycarboxylic acids and polyphenol compounds. Information theory (IT) and factor analysis (FA), together with a basic evaluation of retention information (band shape, retention factor and elution order) were used to compare four columns to a conventional C18 column. The results revealed very little difference in retention behaviour between the Phenomenex Aqua C18 column, the Waters XTerra RP C18 column, and the conventional Phenomenex Luna C18 column. However, there were notable differences in the retention processes between the Phenomenex Synergi polar-RP column, which is an ether-linked phenyl base with polar endcapping, and the Luna C18 column. The most significant differences were observed between the Luna C18 column and a Phenomenex Luna Cyano column. However, the limited degree of retention of the polycarboxylic acids and polyphenol compounds on the Luna Cyano column permits only limited use for the separation of these types of compounds. Overall, the Phenomenex Synergi polar-RP column exhibited the best performance for the separation of the test solutes compared to that of the conventional C18 column, with IT yielding an Informational Similarity of 0.99 and FA a moderate correlation coefficient of 0.70. The Phenomenex Synergi polar-RP column gave the best peak shape and offered substantial selectivity differences thereby providing a good alternative over the conventional C18 column for separating polycarboxylic acids and polyphenols.     

Stereoselective synthesis of four stereoisomers of beta-methoxytyrosine, a component of callipeltin A

Callipeltin A is a novel cyclic depsipeptide that selectively inhibits the cardiac sodium/calcium exchanger and is therefore of interest as a regulator of myocardial contractility. The stereochemistry of beta-methoxytyrosine, one of the amino acids contained within the marine natural product, could not be determined. In an effort to elucidate the stereochemistry of this moiety, a stereoselective synthesis of four stereoisomers of beta-methoxytyrosine from (S)- and (R)-serine was accomplished.     

Photocyclization reactions of cyclohexa- and cyclopenta-fused pyridinium salts. Factors governing regioselectivity

The results of studies described in this report show that irradiation of 1,2-cyclopenta-fused pyridinium perchlorate in aqueous base promotes a remarkably regioselective photocyclization reaction that results in exclusive formation of a single tricyclic allylic alcohol. Moreover, transformation of this photoproduct to a spirocyclic amido diester followed by enzymatic desymmetrization produces an enantiomerically pure monoalcohol. This chemistry comprises a highly concise sequence for the preparation of what should become a useful synthon in synthetic organic chemistry.     

Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry of organic-inorganic materials: identification and gas-phase reactivity of functionalized octahedral rhenium(III) clusters

Electrospray ionization mass spectrometry was used for the analysis of functionalized rhenium clusters such as [Re6Se8(o-Me2TTFPPh2)6]2+ (1), {Re6Se8[(o-Me2TTF)2PPh]6}2+ (2) and [Re6Se8(MePPh2)6]2+ (3). The high-resolution mass spectra of the intact clusters, performed in dichloromethane, confirm the identification of the compounds by comparison with the theoretical isotopic distributions. Low-resolution full-scan mass spectra recorded at increasing desolvation cone voltage values allow the study of the intrinsic reactivity of ionic species. The survival yield curves illustrating the bimolecular reactivity of 1 and 2 suggest that a bisdimethyltetrathiafulvalene(phenyl)phosphine ligand increases the stability of the functionalized ML6(2+) cluster 2. In the case of the 3, instead of loss of a neutral ligand, ligand exchange is observed either with traces of water present in dichloromethane or with acetonitrile used as solvent.