Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

Observation of the nonlinear effect in relativistic Thomson scattering of electron and laser beams

Thomson scattering of high-power laser and electron beams is a good test of electrodynamics in the high-field region. We demonstrated production of high-intensity X-rays in the head-on collision of a CO₂ laser and 60-MeV electron beams at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Accelerator Test Facility. The energy of an X-ray photon was limited at 6.5 keV in the linear (lowest order) Thomson scattering, but the nonlinear (higher order) process produces higher energy X-rays. We measured the angular distribution of the high-energy X-rays and confirmed that it agrees with theoretical predictions.     

Advantages of NIR radiation use for optical determination of skin horny layer thickness with embedded TiO2 nanoparticles during tape stripping procedure

The tape stripping technique is an experimental method frequently used for reconstruction of the in-depth distribution of various topically administered substances within the horny layer of human skin, e.g., compounds contained in sunscreens. Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) nanoparticles (25–200 nm in diameter) are one such compound. Optical techniques which apply blue light are found to be suitable for reconstruction. However, the presence of particles affects the light propagation within the skin and therefore causes incorrect determination of strip thickness, leading to an improper reconstructed distribution of nanoparticle concentration revealed from the experimental data. This study evaluates the errors emerging from the use of blue (400 nm) and NIR (800 nm) radiation and finds the use of longer wavelength light more advantageous. Particles of different diameters are considered, and it is revealed that the application of small particles (25–60 nm) results in the lowest rate of error.     

General strategy for a short and efficient synthesis of 3-hydroxy-4-methylprolines (HMP)

The non-proteinogenic amino acid 3-hydroxy-4-methylproline (HMP) is an active constituent of some potent antimicrobials including echinocandins, nostopeptins, pneumocandins, sporiofungin and mulundocandins. A synthesis has been achieved in 10 steps with 29% overall yield; the Evans’ aldol reaction using Crimmins’ modified method was pivotal to the success of the strategy.     

Standard enthalpy of formation of La2CoO4(cr)

The enthalpies of reactions of La₂CoO₄(cr) and CoCl₂(cr) with hydrochloric acid were measured with an isothermal-jacket calorimeter. The results obtained and the available literature data were used to calculate the standard enthalpy of formation of La₂CoO₄(cr) at 298.15 K, Δ_f H ^o = ?2179 ± 7 kJ/mol.     

On construction of symmetries from integrals of hyperbolic partial differential systems

An algorithm is proposed which allows one to construct higher symmetries of arbitrary order for some special classes of hyperbolic systems possessing integrals. The Pohlmeyer-Lund-Regge system and the open two-dimensional Toda lattices are shown to belong to the class of systems where our algorithm is applicable. __________ Translated from Fundamental’naya i Prikladnaya Matematika (Fundamental and Applied Mathematics), Vol. 10, No. 1, Geometry of Integrable Models, 2004.     

A study of structural, compositional and optical properties of spray-deposited non-stoichiometric (Zn,Fe)S thin films

Non-stoichiometric ternary chalcogenides (Zn,Fe)S were prepared in the film form by pyrolytic spray deposition technique, using air/nitrogen as the carrier gas. The precursor solution comprised of ZnCl₂, FeCl₂ and thiourea. The depositions were carried out under optimum conditions of experimental parameters viz. carrier gas (air/nitrogen) flow rate, concentration of precursor constituents, nozzle substrate distance and temperature of quartz substrate. The deposited thin films were later sintered in argon at 1073 K for 120 min.The structural, compositional and optical properties of the sintered thin films were studied. X-ray diffraction studies of the thin films indicated the presence of (Zn,Fe)S solid solution with prominent cubic sphalerite phase while surface morphology as determined by scanning electron microscopy (SEM) revealed a granular structure.The chemical composition of the resulting thin films as analyzed by energy dispersive X-ray analysis (EDAX) reflected the composition of the precursor solutions from which the depositions were carried out with Fe at% values ranging from 0.4 up to 33.SEM micrographs of thin films reveal that the grain sizes of the thin films prepared using air as carrier gas and N₂ as carrier gas are in the vicinity of 300 and 150 nm, respectively.The diffuse transmittance measurements for thin films, as a function of wavelength reveal the dependence of direct optical band gap on Fe content and type of phase.     

Study of thermal currents in powder β-spodumene ceramics doped with Cuo, FeO and TiO2

Ternary-phase ceramic system of Li₂O Al₂O₃ 4SiO₂ doped with CuO, FeO and TiO₂ has been prepared and subjected to dc electrical conductivity and thermally stimulated depolarization current (TSDC) measurements as a function of temperature (30-250 °C) and field strength. The electrical conductivity results are explained by assuming both ionic and electronic conduction mechanisms coexist with different contributions over the whole temperature range of experiments. TSDC spectra have been found to be characterized by a broad intense relaxation peak, which can be attributed to an ionic charge polarization. The broad relaxation transitions are apparently a result of the nonuniform nature of this process. Activation energies are calculated for both dc electrical conductivity and TSDC according to Arrhenius equation and initial rise method, respectively.