Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Puzzles in astrophysics in the past and present

About 400 years have passed since the great discoveries by Galileo, Kepler, and Newton, but astronomy still remains an important source of discoveries in physics. They start with puzzles, with phenomena difficult to explain, and phenomena which in fact need new physics for explanation. Do such puzzles exist now? There are at least three candidates: absence of absorption of TeV gamma radiation in extragalactic space (violation of Lorentz invariance?), absence of GZK cutoff in the spectrum of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (new particle physics?), tremendous energy (up to 10⁵⁴ erg) released in gamma ray bursts on a time scale of a second (collapsing stars or sources of a new type?). Do these puzzles really exist? A critical review of these phenomena is given.     

Integrability of the Problem of the Motion of a Cylinder and a Vortex in an Ideal Fluid

In this paper, we obtain a nonlinear Poisson structure and two first integrals in the problem of the plane motion of a circular cylinder and n point vortices in an ideal fluid. This problem is a priori not Hamiltonian; specifically, in the case n= 1 (i.e., in the problem of the interaction of a cylinder with a vortex) it is integrable.     

Structure of solid monolayers and multilayers of n -hexane on graphite

We present all-atom molecular dynamics simulations ofn-hexane on the basal plane of graphite at monolayer and multilayer coverages. In keeping with experimental data, we find the presence of ordered adsorbed layers both at single monolayer coverage and when the adsorbed layer coexists with excess liquid adsorbate. Using a simulation method that does not impose any particular periodicity on the adsorbed layer, we quantitatively compare our results to the results of neutron diffraction experiments and find a structural transition from a uniaxially incommensurate lattice to a fully commensurate structure on increasing the coverage from a monolayer to a multilayer. The zig-zag backbone planes of all the alkane molecules lie parallel to the graphite surface at the multilayer coverage, while a few molecules are observed to attain the perpendicular orientation at monolayer coverage. Dedicated to Professor C N R Rao on his 70th birthday     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.