Predicting automobile claims bodily injury severity with sequential ordered logit models

Despite the large cost of bodily injury (BI) claims in motor insurance, relatively little research has been done in this area. Many companies estimate (and therefore reserve) bodily injury compensation directly from initial medical reports. This practice may underestimate the final cost, because the severity is often assessed during the recovery period. Since the evaluation of this severity is often only qualitative, in this paper we apply an ordered multiple choice model at different moments in the life of a claim reported to an insurance company. We assume that the information available to the insurer does not flow continuously, because it is obtained at different stages. Using a real data set, we show that the application of sequential ordered logit models leads to a significant improvement in the prediction of the BI severity level, compared to the subjective classification that is used in practice. We also show that these results could improve the insurer’s reserves notably.     

Structural manipulation of pyrochlores: Thermal evolution of metastable Gd2(Ti1−yZry)2O7 powders prepared by mechanical milling

The structural and microstructural characteristics of metastable Gd₂(Ti_1−yZr_y)₂O₇ powders prepared by mechanical milling have been studied by a combination of XRD and Raman spectroscopy. Irrespective of their Zr content, as-prepared powder phases present an anion-deficient fluorite-type of structure as opposed to the pyrochlore equilibrium configuration obtained for the same solid solution by other synthetic routes. These fluorites are stable versus thermal activation, at least up to temperatures of 800 °C. For the Ti-rich compositions, thermal treatments at higher temperatures facilitate the rearrangement of the cation and anion substructures and the relaxation of mechanochemically induced defects whereas for compositions with high Zr content, the fluorite crystal structure is retained even at temperatures as high as 1200 °C. Interestingly enough, transient pyrochlores showing a very unusual cation distribution were observed during the thermally induced defect-recovery process.     

Left, right, and inner socles of associative systems

We investigate the basic properties of the different socles that can be considered in not necessarily semiprime associative systems. Among other things, we show that the socle defined as the sum of minimal (or minimal and trivial) inner ideals is always an ideal. When trivial inner ideals are included, this inner socle contains the socles defined in terms of minimal left or right ideals. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Birefringent filter with amplitude beats

In this work, we show a very simple birefringent filter useful to modulate a broadband light spectrum. We first show the generation of various oscillating spectra using two identical multiple-order waveplates. In particular a sinusoidal broadband spectrum with a rapid oscillation is obtained. This spectrum is amplitude modulated by adding another waveplate to the system. This waveplate has a small phase shift, and with the proper orientation generates amplitude beats on the broadband spectrum. Finally, we show how this system can be voltage controlled by means of a ferroelectric liquid crystal modulator. We experimentally demonstrate this behavior with the aid of a portable spectrophotometer, and we provide a theoretical explanation on the basis of the Jones matrix formalism.     

Highly polarized dithiafulvenes: synthesis and nonlinear optical properties

Push-pull dithiafulvenes with reduced bond length alternation (BLA) and high optical nonlinearities have been prepared. The interplay between the proaromaticity of the donor and the structural and optical properties of these merocyanines is discussed. The donor ability of dithiafulvenes can reach that of ferrocene or dialkylaminophenyl groups.     

Aberrations theory of a time dependent magnetic field lens

We analyze new forms of aberrations affecting a time dependent magnetic field lens recently proposed. The lens consist of an axially symmetric ellipsoidal solenoid producing a spatially uniform but time pulsating homogeneous field. The dynamics of electrons emitted by some object and injected into this coil shows that this system is capable of focusing a parallel beam or produce images free of geometrical aberrations. The cardinal elements of this lens change periodically in positions and therefore to obtain a stationary image it is necessary to employ a chopped electron beam. Two forms of aberrations originate from the finite duration of the electron pulse and the energy dispersion of the incoming beam (chromatic aberration). Their image degradation effects are quite similar and result from recording different axially displaced images at some fixed stationary plane. We show how, by adjusting the parameters characterizing the magnetic pulse and introducing small apertures that increase the depth of focus, their effects can be reduced or in some cases eliminated. Other forms of instrumental aberrations characteristic of this time dependent magnetic field lens are briefly discussed.