The flat-maximum effect and generic linear scoring models: a test

Received on 1 July 1991. Predicting human behaviour patterns with linear correlationmodels has absorbed researchers for the past five decades. Althoughmost observers generally concede that humans are inferior tosuch models in combining information, linear scoring modelsare unfortunately, plagued by the flat-maximum effect or the‘curse of insensitivity’. As Lovie & Lovie(1986)observe: ‘The predictive ability of linear models is insensitiveto large variations in the size of regression weights and tothe number of predictors.’ In essence, seemingly differentscoringmodels tend to produce indistinguishable predictive outcomes. Since its demonstration by Dawes & Corrigan (1974), observershave cast the flat maximum in a decidedly negative light. Incontrast, Lovie & Lovie (1986) present a provocatively contrarianview of the flat maximum‘s positive potential. In thissame vein, we examine the predictive power of a generic credit-scoringmodel versus individual empirically derived systems. If, asWainer (1976) noted in regard to the flat maximum, ’itdon‘t make no nevermind’, generic credit-scoringmodels could provide cheaper alternatives to individual empiricallyderived models. During the period 1984–8, a series of linear credit-scoringmodels were developed for ten Southeastern U.S. credit unions.For each credit union, stepwise multiple regression was employedto select a subset of explanatory variables to be used in adiscriminant analysis. A generic credit-scoring equation wasdeveloped from the resulting discriminant analyses using weightedaverage coefficients from five systems. The predictive powerof the generic model was compared to the predictive power ofholdout sample of the five remaining credit-scoring models. In all cases, the generic model's performance was very closeto that of the empirically derived models. Thus, our findingssupport Lovie & Lovie's (1986) challenge to the conventionalwisdom that the flat maximum casts a pall on the successfulmodelling of judgement processes. Indeed, the flat maximum impliesa positive role for simpler, and hence cheaper, generic models.Although further research is needed, it should be possible todevelop hybrid models with generic cores that perform as wellas empirically derived linear models.     

Measurements of excess enthalpies at high temperature and pressure using a new type of mixing unit

A flow mixing unit (calorimetric cell and auxiliary devices) has been designed for measuring the enthalpy of mixing or reaction of two fluids (gas+liquid or liquid+liquid). The indicator of the heat effect is a differential heat flux calorimeter, SETARAM C-80, allowing measurements at temperatures up to 300°C. The mixing cell is made of a stainless-steel capillary (o.d 1.6 mm, length 2.4m) which is coiled in a cylindrical form and tightly fitted in the thermopile well of the calorimeter. The fluids are delivered from the high pressure piston pumps and circulated through the system at controlled flow rates ranging from 100 to 1500 L-min^–1. The tests were carried out at pressures up to 20 MPa. Special care was taken to allow good thermostatting of fluids entering the mixing cell. Check measurements were made with one liquid-liquid system (C₂H₅OH+H₂O) and one gas-liquid system (CO₂+C₆H₅CH₃); our enthalpies of mixing agreed with the literature values in most cases to 2%. For the system ethanol+water the experiments have been also performed at temperature of 250°C and pressures of 15 and 20 MPa. The endothermal mixing effect was higher than expected indicating an increase in the excess heat capacity.     

Photoelectron spectroscopy of silicon doped gold and silver cluster anions

Photoelectron spectra of low temperature silicon doped gold cluster anions Au(n)Si(-) with n = 2-56 and silver cluster anions Ag(n)Si(-) with n = 5-82 have been measured. Comparing the spectra as well as the general size dependence of the electron detachment energies to the results on undoped clusters shows that the silicon atom changes the apparent free electron count in the clusters. In the case of larger gold clusters (with more than about 30 gold atoms) the silicon atom seems to consistently delocalize all of its four valence electrons, while in the case of the silver clusters a less uniform behavior is observed. Here the silicon atoms act partly as electron donors, partly as electron acceptors, without following an obvious simple principle. Additionally some structural information can be obtained from the measured spectra: while Ag(54)Si(-) seems to adopt an icosahedral structural motif, Au(54)Si(-) seems to take on a low symmetry structure, much like the corresponding pure 55 atom clusters. This indicates that for such larger clusters the incorporation of a single silicon atom does not change the ground state geometry significantly.     

Highly diastereoselective Friedel-Crafts reaction of furans with 8-phenylmenthyl glyoxylate

The Friedel-Crafts reaction of (1R)-8-phenylmenthyl glyoxylate with variously substituted furans was found to be efficiently promoted by SnCl(4) or magnesium salts with high diastereoselectivities. MgBr(2) performs especially well under simple, undemanding conditions, giving both high yields and high diastereoselectivities (>90%). The reaction afforded chiral substituted furan-2-yl-hydroxyacetic acid esters, compounds of potentially high synthetic interest. [reaction: see text]     

Magnetic conveyor belt transport of ultracold atoms to a superconducting atomchip

We report the realization of a robust magnetic transport scheme to bring >3 × 10⁸ ultracold ⁸⁷Rb atoms into a cryostat. The sequence starts with standard laser cooling and trapping of ⁸⁷Rb atoms, transporting first horizontally and then vertically through the radiation shields into a cryostat by a series of normal- and superconducting magnetic coils. Loading the atoms in a superconducting microtrap paves the way for studying the interaction of ultracold atoms with superconducting surfaces and quantum devices requiring cryogenic temperatures.     

Magnetic flux distribution in the bulk of the pure type-II superconductor niobium measured with positive muons

The spin precession of positive muons in ultra-pure Nb single crystals of high perfection, cooled down in transverse magnetic fields 0.68B _c2≤B _appl≤0.84B _c2 (B _c2=upper critical field) from temperatures well above the superconducting transition temperatureT _c=9.25 K, has been investigated in the temperature range 2.6 K≤T≤8.0 K. The experiments confirm the periodic fieldB(r) of triangular flux-line lattices as calculated from numerical solutions of the microscopic BCS-Gor'kov theory. The observed broadening of the van Hove singularities in the field distribution is discussed in terms of the combined effects of muon diffusion and random perturbations of the flux-line lattice.