A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

The components of chi-squared statistics for goodness-of-fit tests

One obtains a formula for the transformation of a vector with a given covariance matrix. The sum of the squares of the components of the transformed vector is equal to a chi-square type quadratic form, constructed with the aid of the initial vector. Taking into account this property, one finds the components of the Pearson statistic, Pearson-Fisher statistic, etc.Translated from Veroyatnostnye Raspredeleniya i Matematicheskaya Statistika, pp. 337–350, 1986.     

Transport as a consequence of state-dependent diffusion

Overdamped particles subject to a drift in a force field with sinusoidal space dependence and also a sinusoidally modulated space-dependent diffusion, with the same period as the drift, experience a net driving force. The resulting current depends on the amplitude of the modulation of the diffusion and is a periodic function of the phase difference between the sinusoidal drift and the sinusoidal modulation of the diffusion. For small modulation amplitudes a particle subject to state-dependent noise behaves the same way as a particle subject to thermal noise but with a drift which, in addition to the sinusoidal term, contains a net force term.Dedicated to Professor Harry Thomas on the occasion of his 60th birthday