Believable statements of uncertainty and believable science

Nearly 50 years ago, two landmark papers appeared that should have cured the problem of ambiguous uncertainty statements in published data. Eisenhart’s paper in Science called for statistically meaningful numbers, and Currie’s Analytical Chemistry paper revealed the wide range in common definitions of detection limit. Confusion and worse can result when uncertainties are misinterpreted or ignored. The recent stories of cold fusion, variable radioactive decay, and piezonuclear reactions provide cautionary examples in which prior probability has been neglected. We show examples from our laboratory and others to illustrate the fact that uncertainty depends on both statistical and scientific judgment.     

The half-lives of 90mY and 97Ru

In an attempt to improve the accuracy of neutron activation analysis, gamma-ray spectrometry and least-squares methods developed for other nuclides have been applied to redetermine the decay constants of ^90mY and ⁹⁷Ru. Several irradiated samples of each pure element were counted continually through several half-lives, acquiring up to 100 spectra with good statistics. Photopeaks from each nuclide were evaluated with a region of interest integration routine, and each data point corrected for rate-related losses before fitting to an exponential function by a nonlinear least-squares procedure. The half-lives found are 3.204 ± 0.008 h for ^90mY and 2.836 ± 0.014 days for ⁹⁷Ru, where the uncertainty is an estimate of the 95 % confidence level. Although (by Chi squared criteria) the fits to the decay curves were very good and the uncertainty of the resulting half-lives an order of magnitude smaller than the previously published uncertainty, care is necessary before assigning a best value with a totally defensible uncertainty to the overall data set.     

Using k0 in PGAA: Perspectives

Prompt-gamma activation analysis (PGAA) differs from conventional neutron activation analysis in the set of elements measured, the irradiation conditions, and the nature of the gamma-ray spectra. Each of these affects the conduct of the measurements and interpretation of the data. In its recent development, the k ₀ standardization framework provides a solution to many of the problems of this analytical method, and may provide a bridge to greater certainty of analysis.     

AutoDock4 and AutoDockTools4: Automated docking with selective receptor flexibility

We describe the testing and release of AutoDock4 and the accompanying graphical user interface AutoDockTools. AutoDock4 incorporates limited flexibility in the receptor. Several tests are reported here, including a redocking experiment with 188 diverse ligand‐protein complexes and a cross‐docking experiment using flexible sidechains in 87 HIV protease complexes. We also report its utility in analysis of covalently bound ligands, using both a grid‐based docking method and a modification of the flexible sidechain technique. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Comput Chem, 2009     

Delocalized electron resonance at the alkanethiolate self-assembled monolayer/Au(111) interface

We probe the electronic structure of alkanethiolate self-assembled monolayers (SAMs) on Au(111) using two-photon photoemission spectroscopy. We observe a dispersive unoccupied resonance close to the vacuum level with a lifetime shorter than 30 fs. The short lifetime and the insensitivity of the energy level and dispersion to molecular length (and thus layer thickness) suggest that the probability density of the electron wave function is concentrated inside the molecular layer close to the SAM/Au interface. Such an interfacial resonance results from the image like potential at the SAM/Au interface.     

Use of INAA,PGAA, and RNAA to determine 30 elements for certification of an SRM: Tomato Leaves, 157a

Analyses for certification have been made for the determination of 30 elements in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Tomato Leaves renewal reference material, SRM 1573a. Three of the analytical techniques used were instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA), radiochemical neutron activation analysis (RNAA), and prompt gamma activation analysis (PGAA). These techniques provided data on 19 elements by INAA, 10 elements by PGAA, and 7 elements by RNAA, with some overlap between techniques. For example, INAA was able to obtain overall analytical uncerainties (at the 95% confidence level) averaging ±2.2% for major and minor constituents (Ca, Mg, K), ±3.3% for constituents from 1 to 1000 g/g (Na, Fe, Al, Mn, Ba, Zn, Rb, La, Cr), and ±6.4% for elements between 10 and 1000 ng/g (Co, V, Se, Th, Sc, Sb), using sample dry weights of approximately 150 mg. These analyses represent the most extensive use to date of nuclear analytical techniques in the certification of a trace element SRM at NIST.     

The NIST rapid irradiation and counting system

A radiotracer based method for the determination of the rate of expel of a swelling agent from a swelling agent saturated polymer foil induced by a second organic liquid (i.e., blowing agent for foaming of polymers) has been set up and tested. The method was applied to acetone swollen polyetherimide (PEI) foil and 1,1,1-trichloroethane and ethanol (blowing agents) systems. By combining the results of radiotracer measurements with those obtained by measuring foil weights, the amount of the respective blowing agents that replaced acetone in the PEI foil was determined.