Timber harvest scheduling with price uncertainty using Markowitz portfolio optimization

Harvest scheduling models need to account for uncertain revenue predictions when minimizing risk of financial loss is an important management objective. In this paper, we present methods for estimating the means and covariances of stumpage prices and incorporating them in harvest scheduling models. We approached the estimation problem by fitting time-series models to loblolly pine sawtimber and pulpwood stumpage prices in Georgia, USA, and deriving formulas for means and covariances of price predictions. Statistical evidence supported integrated autoregressive models, which caused covariances of price predictions to increase with time. The means and covariances of price predictions were combined with timber yield and land value predictions to give exact formulas for the revenue means and covariances of timber management activities. Sawtimber regimes dominated pulpwood regimes by providing higher mean revenues across a wide range of revenue variances. Harvest scheduling results for a hypothetical forest of pine plantations showed that the forest plan that maximized mean income without concern for risk (expressed as the standard deviation of income) involved sawtimber production with a 35-year rotation age. Risk was reduced 30% with little effect on mean income by using shorter-rotation sawtimber regimes. Risk was reduced 80% by using a mix of short-rotation sawtimber and pulpwood regimes because pulpwood price was only weakly correlated with sawtimber price. The latter risk-reduction came at the expense of mean income, which was reduced by as much as 50%. The risks and compositions of optimal forest plans were extremely sensitive to assumptions about the range of future prices that were inherent in different prediction models. This sensitivity emphasizes the importance of carefully determining the decision makers beliefs about stumpage price behavior.     

An extensive ecdysteroid CoMFA

The ecdysteroid agonist activity of 71 HPLC-purified ecdysteroids was measured in the Drosophila melanogaster BII tumorous blood cell line assay. The resultant log(ED50) values, spanning almost 6 orders of magnitude, were used to construct a comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) model in which conformations were selected by homology to the crystal structure of ecdysone. Model A was constructed by utilization of the region- focused electrostatic indicator field (q2=0.631, r2=0.903, 5 components, 4 outliers). Model B made use of region-focused electrostatic and steric indicator fields along with MlogP (q2=0.694, r2=0.892, 5 components, 4 outliers). The model and its underlying bioassay data support a pharmacophore hypothesis in which ecdysteroid binding is understood to be due principally to the summation of localized interactions from approximately six specific loci. This is in contrast to previous structure-activity relationship hypotheses which are formulated in terms of the presence or absence of essential functional groups, without which ecdysteroid receptor affinity would be completely absent. The present CoMFA model is utilized to predict the activities of heretofore unknown ecdysteroids.     

Application of Water Soluble Resorcinarenes in Nanofiltration-Complexation with Caesium and Strontium as Targets

Combined nanofiltration-complexation is applied to the separation of caesium and strontium from a solution containing a large concentration of sodium. Caesium and strontium complexation was studied using various water soluble resorcinarene-type ligands. Combined with nanofiltration these ligands improved the separation of caesium and strontium from sodium by the FILMTEC NF 70 membrane.     

Ligand directed self-assembly of polymetallic [n x n] grids: rational routes to large functional molecular subunits?

Poly-(n)-topic ligands with a linear arrangement of coordination pockets self-assemble, generally in high yield, to produce square [n x n] grid complexes. Oligomeric, non-grid intermediates, identified by structural studies, have shown alternative construction pathways, but have also indicated possible mechanistic routes to grid assembly. Various factors are considered critical to grid formation, including reaction pH, metal ion identity, CFSE, and metal ion redox behaviour. Ultimately the design of the ligand is pivotal to successful grid self-assembly, and the size of the [n x n] grid is largely limited only by the synthetic limitations of the ligands themselves.     

NC-(CF2)4-CNSSN radical containing 1,2,3,5-dithiadiazolyl radical dimer exhibiting triplet excited states at low temperature and thermal hysteresis on melting-solidification: structural, spectroscopic, and magnetic characterization

A high yield, one-pot synthesis of the 1,2,3,5-dithiadiazolyl radical NC-(CF2)4-CNSSN radical by reduction of the corresponding 1,3,2,4-dithiadiazolium salt is reported. In the solid state, the title compound is dimerized in trans-cofacial fashion with intra-dimeric Sdelta+...N(delta-) interactions of ca. 3.2 angstroms, and the dimeric units are linked by electrostatic -C triple bond N(delta-)...Sdelta+ interactions forming an infinite chain. Magnetic susceptibility measurements performed on the solid state sample indicate a magnetic moment of 1.8 microB per dimer (1.3 microB per monomer) at 300 K and a good fit to the Bleaney-Bowers model in the temperature range 2-300 K with 2J = -1500 +/- 50 cm(-1), g = 2.02(5), rho = 0.90(3)%, and TIP = 1.25(4) x 10(-3) emu mol(-1). The [NC-(CF2)4-CNSSN radical]2 dimer is the second example of a 1,2,3,5-dithiadiazolyl radical dimer with an experimentally detected triplet excited state as probed by solid-state EPR [2J = -1730 +/- 100 cm(-1), |D| = 0.0278(5) cm(-1), |E| = 0.0047(5) cm(-1)]. The value of the singlet-triplet gap has enabled us to estimate the "in situ" dimerization energy of the radical dimer as ca. -10 kJ mol(-1). The diradical character of the dimer was calculated [CASSCF(6,6)/6-31G*] as 35%. The title radical shows magnetic bistability in the temperature range of 305-335 K as probed by the solid-state EPR presumably arising from the presence of a metastable paramagnetic supercooled phase. Bistability is accompanied by thermochromic behavior with a color change from dark green (dimeric solid) to dark brown (paramagnetic liquid).     

Photoprotective activity of propolis

The purpose of this study was to determine the photoprotective properties of propolis. The sun protection factor (SPF) of ethanol extract of propolis was evaluated by an in vitro method, using homosalate as control. This determination is based on the physical determination of the reduction of the energy in the UV range, through a film of product which has previously been spread on an adequate substrate. About 15 mg of O/W emulsion containing propolis at various concentrations were applied on roughened Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) plates and the transmission measurements were carried out using a spectrophotometer equipped with integrating sphere. The results may justify their use as a natural sunscreen agent.     

Synthesis, structure and magnetic properties of oligometallic systems derived from di- and trinuclear copper(II) amido-oximate complexes

Three heterometallic complexes [M(H(2)O)(n)][Cu(3)L(2)(H(2)O)] (M = Mn(2+), Co(2+) or Ba(2+)) and one dinuclear compound (CuDien)(CuL{H(2)O}) were prepared by interaction of anionic compounds Cu(3)L(2)(2-) or CuL(2-) with the corresponding cations (H(4)L = 1,9-dicyano-1,9-bis(hydroximino)-3,7-diazanonane-2,8-dione; Dien = 1,5-diamino-3-azapentane). The complexes [M(H(2)O)(n)][Cu(3)L(2)(H(2)O)] have a polymeric structure, formed via oligomerization of Cu(3)L(2)(2-) units and additionally, in the case of the Ba-salt, by binding of Cu(3)L(2)(2-) units through Ba(2+). Antiferromagnetic interactions occur in all the complexes, while for [Co(H(2)O)(6)][Cu(3)L(2)(H(2)O)] there is evidence of some ferromagnetic ordering at low temperatures. The values of J are lower in magnitude than for similar, previously reported systems, which is attributed to the electron-withdrawing effect of the ligand cyano groups.     

Palladium-catalyzed direct arylation of nitro-substituted aromatics with aryl halides

Direct arylation reactions of nitrobenzenes and aryl halides occur in good yield and high ortho regioselectivity. These reactions can be performed on gram scale with as few as 3 equiv of the nitro arene relative to the aryl halide. The synthetic utility of this method is demonstrated via rapid synthesis of a Boscalid intermediate.     

Stereospecific anti SE2' fluorination of allenylsilanes: synthesis of enantioenriched propargylic fluorides

The electrophilic fluorodesilylation of enantioenriched allenylsilanes proceeds with efficient transfer of chirality. The silylation-fluorination of propargylic alcohols occurs with overall retention of stereochemistry, a result consistent with a stereospecific anti S(E)2' mechanism for the fluorination step.