Principal components and spatial patterns of rain over Northern Italy, in relation to wind and geopotential fields

Summary A statistical study of precipitation over the Po Valley and the Alps during four winters, based on the application of a principal component (p.c.) method, exhibited a good correlation between the first three rotated eigenvectors of the cross-product matrix (between time series of data recorded at 70 stations) and three typical atmospheric circulation schemes over Northern Italy. The study is here continued, by relating these results to meteorological fields evaluated over a region wider than the area previously considered. Our attention mainly concentrated on the fields of time trend of geopotential height at 850 hPa over Europe, between latitude 34.5 and 51 degrees North and longitudes 0 and 21 degrees East. This was suggested by some peculiar relationships shown by the statistical distributions of geopotential height and wind direction and speed with respect to the first three p.c.’s. These relationships made us think of the possibility to use those trends as predictors of precipitation fields. Our analysis puts into evidence that three spatial patterns of geopotential, height time trend can be safely associated to the first three p.c.’s and, as a consequence, to the three precipitation modes corresponding to the spatial distributions of the eigenvectors, previously identified by us. They can therefore be considered meaningful precursors of precipitation field patterns over Northern Italy and Alpine regions.

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Riassunto Uno studio statistico della precipitazione sulla pianura padana e sulle Alpi durante quattro inverni, basato sull’applicazione del metodo delle componenti principali (c.p.), ha mostrato una buona correlazione fra i primi tre autovettori rotati della matrice dei prodotti incrociati (fra le serie temporali dei dati registrati in 70 stazioni) e tre tipici schemi di circolazione atmosferica sull’Italia del Nord. Lo studio viene qui prosequito, mettendo in relazione tali risultati con campi meteorologici valutati su una zona piú ampia di quella precedentemente considerata. La nostra attenzione si è prevalentemente concentrata sui campi di tendenza temporale dell’altezza di geopotenziale a 850 hPa sull’Europa, a latitudini comprese tra 34.5 e 51 gradi Nord e longitudini fra 0 e 21 gradi Est. Ciò è stato suggerito da alcune relazioni peculiari mostrate dalle distribuzioni statistiche di altezza di geopotenziale e di direzione ed intensità del vento rispetto alle prime tre c.p., che ci hanno fatto pensare alla possibilità di usare tali tendenze come predittori del campo di precipitazione. La nostra analisi ha messo in evidenza il fatto che tre distribuzioni spaziali di tendenza temporale del campo di altezza di geopotenziale possono essere con sicurezza associate alle prime tre c.p. e., quindi, ai tre modi di precipitazione corrispondenti alle distribuzioni spaziali degli autovettori precedentemente da noi identificati. Essi possono pertanto essere considerati significativi precursori del campo di precipitazione sull’Italia del Nord e sulle regioni alpine.

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Резюме Статистическое исследование выпадения осадков над долиной реки По и Альпами в течение четырех зим, основанное на применении метода главных компонент, обнаруживает хорошую корреляцию между первыми тремя вращающимися собственными векторами матрицы векторного произведения (между временными последовательностями данных, зарегистрированных на 70 станциях) и тремя схемами типичной атмосферной циркуляции над Северной Италией. В этой работе продолжены исследования. Полученные результаты связывайотся с метеорологическими полями, вычисленными над областью, которая шире ранее рассмотренной области. Главное внимание мы обращаем на поля временного хода для геопотенциальной высоты при 850гПа над Европой, между 34.5^щ и 51^щ северной широты и между 0^щ и 21^щ восточной долготы. Это следует из специальных соотношений, полученных с помощью статистических распределений геопотенциальной высоты и направления и скорости ветра относительно первых трех главных компонент. Эти соотношения позволяют нам использовать исследованные тенденции, как предсказатели полей вьшадения осадков. Нам анализ подтверждает, что три пространственным распределения временного хода для геопотенциальной высоты могут быть связаны с первыми тремя главными компонентами и, как следствие, с тремя моделями выцадения осадков, которые соответствуют пространственным распределениям собственных векторов, ранее идентифицированных в работе [Ш]. Следовательно, они могут рассматриватяся как предвестники для распределений полей осадков над Северной Италией и над Альпами.

     

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一些高Tc超导体的弹性性质

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