A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Existence and Stability for Spherical Crystals Growing in a Supersaturated Solution

We consider the growth of a spherical crystal in a supersaturatedsolution. In the first part, existence and uniqueness resultsfor radially symmetric growth are obtained, provided that thesupersaturation is not too large; conversely, when the far-fieldsupersaturation exceeds a critical value, it is shown that theradially symmetric solution ceases to exist in finite time.In the second part, we examine the linear stability of a radiallysymmetric similarity solution (in which the radius grows ast?) to shape perturbations. The results are compared with previousquasi-static analyses, and, in particular, the critical radiusat which the crystal becomes unstable is found to be largerfor small supersaturations, but smaller for large supersaturations,than those predicted by the quasi-static analysis     

关于(?)-拟微分核的连续性

Supposa that f(x) is a quasidifferentiable function, defined on S(?)R~n where S is an open set, with a -equivalent bounded quasidifferential subfam ily. Lenma I     

Optimization of the surface texture for silicon carbide sliding in water

Surface texturing has been recognized as an effective means to improve the tribological performances of sliding surfaces. Usually, generation additional hydrodynamic pressure to increase the load carrying capacity is regarded as the most significant effect of surface texture. In the case of silicon carbide sliding against identical material in water, the experimental results indicate that surface texture is also helpful to improve the running-in progress to smooth the contact surfaces, showing another reason to result in low friction. Based on the consideration of enhancing the generation of hydrodynamic pressure and improving running-in progress, a surface texture pattern, which was combined with large (circle, 350 μm in diameter) and small (rectangular, 40 μm in length) dimples, was designed to maximize the texture effect on the load carrying capacity of SiC surfaces sliding in water. The friction coefficient of such textured surface was evaluated and compared with that of untextured and those only with large or small dimples only. The friction reduction mechanisms of the patterns with different dimples in size are discussed.     

Onset of crater formation during short pulse laser ablation

We report morphologic changes of metallic surfaces at the onset of ablation, starting from gentle ablation to the emergence of ablation craters. The evolution of both observed melting zones and of ablation craters therein are investigated in dependence of the ablation laser fluence for nanosecond ultraviolet laser pulses. Further, consequences of crater formation for cluster synthesis within the released atomic vapor are pointed out. PACS 52.38.Mf; 79.20.Ds; 65.40.De     

一类多维指数分布的参数估计

考虑生存函数为(F)(x1,x2,…,xn)=P{X1＞x1,…,Xn＞xn}=exp{-[n∑i=1(xi/θi)1/δ]δ}(0＜xi＜∞,0＜δ≤ 1,0＜θi＜∞,i=(1,n))的一类多维指数分布,给出了它的密度函数的表示式,并讨论了它的性质.提出了相关参数δ的估计(^δ),证明了(^δ)有相合性和渐近正态性,得到了(^δ)的渐近方差σ2δ.最后还给出了若干随机模拟的结果.