Error analysis: a tool for selecting travel demand models

In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection.     

Determination of trace levels of diosmin in a pharmaceutical preparation by adsorptive stripping voltammetry at a glassy carbon electrode.

A systematic study on the electrochemical behavior of diosmin in Britton-Robinson buffer (pH 2.0-10.0) at a glassy carbon electrode (GCE) was made. The oxidation process of the drug was found to be quasi-reversible with an adsorption-controlled step. The adsorption stripping response was evaluated with respect to various experimental conditions, such as the pH of the supporting electrolyte, the accumulation potential and the accumulation time. The observed anodic peak current at +0.73 V vs. Ag/AgCl reference electrode increased linearly over two orders of magnitude from 5.0x10(-8) M to 9.0x10(-6) M. A limit of detection down to 3.5x10(-8) M of diosmin at the GCE was achieved with a mean recovery of 97+/-2.1%. Based on the electrochemical data, an open-circuit accumulation step in a stirred sample solution of BR at pH 3.0 was developed. The proposed method was successfully applied to the determination of the drug in pharmaceutical formulations. The results compared favorably with the data obtained via spectrophotometric and HPLC methods.     

OPTIMAL INVESTMENT IN THE PROTECTION OF A VULNERABLE BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE

It is assumed that the probability of destruction of a biological asset by natural hazards can be reduced through investment in protection. Specifically a model, in which the hazard rate depends on both the age of the asset and the accumulated invested protection capital, is assumed. The protection capital depreciates through time and its effectiveness in reducing the hazard rate is subject to diminishing returns. It is shown how the investment schedule to maximize the expected net present value of the asset can be determined using the methods of deterministic optimal control, with the survival probability regarded as a state variable. The optimal investment pattern involves “bang-bang-singular” control. A numerical scheme for determining jointly the optimal investment policy and the optimal harvest (or replacement) age is outlined and a numerical example involving forest fire protection is given.     

Double-layer structural-acoustic coupling for cylindrical shell by using a combination of WDA and BIE

This work formulates the double-layer structural-acoustic coupling problem for cylindrical shell by using a combination of the wave-number domain approach (WDA) and the boundary integral equation (BIE). Expressions for the spectral radial velocity of the outer surface of a finite fluid-filled/submerged (FFS) cylindrical thin shell are formulated by means of the transfer matrix equation in wave-number domain. It is shown that the spectral variables on the inner surface of the shell are related to those on the outer surface of the shell. The far field sound radiation from this kind of shell is numerically evaluated for various fluid cases. An experimental verification is performed, and a good correlation between the theoretical results and the experimental results shows that the theoretical study work in this paper is correct.     

Miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate with poly(methyl methacrylate)

The miscibility of bisphenol-A polycarbonate (PC) with poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) has been reexamined using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and optical indications for phase separation on heating, i.e., lower critical solution temperature (LCST) behavior. Various methods have been used to prepare the blends including methylene chloride (CH₂Cl₂) and tetrahydrofuran (THF) solution casting, melt mixing, and precipitation of PC and PMMA simultaneously from THF solution by using the nonsolvents methanol and heptane. It is shown that the resulting phase behavior for PC/PMMA blends is strongly affected by the blend preparation method. However, these blends are miscible over the whole blend composition range (unambiguous single composition-dependent T_g's and LCST behavior) when prepared by precipitation from solution using heptane as the nonsolvent. To the contrary, solution-cast and melt-mixed PC/PMMA blends were all phase separated, which may be attributed to the “solvent” effect and LCST behavior, respectively, not discovered in previous reports. Methanol precipitation does not lead to fully mixed blends, which demonstrates the importance of the choice of nonsolvent when using the precipitation method.     

Semi‐analytical integration of the 8‐node plane element stiffness matrix using symbolic computation

The semi‐analytical integration of an 8‐node plane strain finite element stiffness matrix is presented in this work. The element is assumed to be super‐parametric, having straight sides. Before carrying out the integration, the integral expressions are classified into several groups, thus avoiding duplication of calculations. Symbolic manipulation and integration is used to obtain the basic formulae to evaluate the stiffness matrix. Then, the resulting expressions are postprocessed, optimized, and simplified in order to reduce the computation time. Maple symbolic‐manipulation software was used to generate the closed expressions and to develop the corresponding Fortran code. Comparisons between semi‐analytical integration and numerical integration were made. It was demonstrated that semi‐analytical integration required less CPU time than conventional numerical integration (using Gaussian‐Legendre quadrature) to obtain the stiffness matrix. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq, 2006     

Conformational analysis of dipeptide‐derived polyisocyanides

The conformational properties of polymers derived from isocyanodipeptides have been investigated with a combination of model calculations, X‐ray diffraction, and circular dichroism spectroscopy. Depending on the configuration of the side chains, defined arrays of hydrogen bonds along the polymeric backbone are formed. This leads to a well‐defined conformation as, for example, expressed in the formation of lyotropic liquid‐crystalline phases and increased helical stability. Upon the disruption of the hydrogen bonds by a strong acid, a less well‐defined macromolecular conformation is observed. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 1725–1736, 2003     

Rate constants for the gas‐phase reaction of CF3CF2CF2CF2CF2CHF2 with OH radicals at 250–430 K

The rate constants k₁ for the reaction of CF₃CF₂CF₂CF₂CF₂CHF₂ with OH radicals were determined by using both absolute and relative rate methods. The absolute rate constants were measured at 250–430 K using the flash photolysis–laser‐induced fluorescence (FP‐LIF) technique and the laser photolysis–laser‐induced fluorescence (LP‐LIF) technique to monitor the OH radical concentration. The relative rate constants were measured at 253–328 K in an 11.5‐dm³ reaction chamber with either CHF₂Cl or CH₂FCF₃ as a reference compound. OH radicals were produced by UV photolysis of an O₃–H₂O–He mixture at an initial pressure of 200 Torr. Ozone was continuously introduced into the reaction chamber during the UV irradiation. The k₁ (298 K) values determined by the absolute method were (1.69 ± 0.07) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (FP‐LIF method) and (1.72 ± 0.07) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (LP‐LIF method), whereas the K₁ (298 K) values determined by the relative method were (1.87 ± 0.11) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (CHF₂Cl reference) and (2.12 ± 0.11) × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1 (CH₂FCF₃ reference). These data are in agreement with each other within the estimated experimental uncertainties. The Arrhenius rate constant determined from the kinetic data was K₁ = (4.71 ± 0.94) × 10^?13 exp[?(1630 ± 80)/T] cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1. Using kinetic data for the reaction of tropospheric CH₃CCl₃ with OH radicals [k₁ (272 K) = 6.0 × 10^?15 cm³ molecule^?1 s^?1, tropospheric lifetime of CH₃CCl₃ = 6.0 years], we estimated the tropospheric lifetime of CF₃CF₂CF₂CF₂CF₂CHF₂ through reaction with OH radicals to be 31 years. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Chem Kinet 36: 26–33, 2004