Multi-period forecasting and scenario generation with limited data

Data for optimization problems often comes from (deterministic) forecasts, but it is naïve to consider a forecast as the only future possibility. A more sophisticated approach uses data to generate alternative future scenarios, each with an attached probability. The basic idea is to estimate the distribution of forecast errors and use that to construct the scenarios. Although sampling from the distribution of errors comes immediately to mind, we propose instead to approximate rather than sample. Benchmark studies show that the method we propose works well.     

Physicochemical Study of n-Ethylpyridinium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide Ionic Liquid

In this work, thermophysical properties of n-ethylpyridinium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide have been studied at atmospheric pressure in the temperature range 288.15–338.15 K. Density, speed of sound, refractive index, surface tension, isobaric molar heat capacity, electrical conductivity and kinematic viscosity have been measured; from these data the isobaric expansibility, isentropic compressibility, molar refraction, entropy and enthalpy of surface formation per unit of surface area, and dynamic viscosity have been calculated. Moreover, we have characterized the thermal behavior of the compound. Results have been analyzed paying special attention to the structural and energetic factors. The magnitude and directionality of the cation–anion interactions have been studied using ab initio quantum calculations, which allow a better understanding of the physicochemical behavior of the ionic liquid. Finally, density values and radial distribution functions were also estimated ab initio from classical molecular dynamics simulations, providing acceptable density predictions.     

Stereoselective hydrogenation of methylcyclohex-2-ene-1,4-diols used in the synthesis of ampelomins and deoxy-carbasugars

Stereoselective hydrogenation of methylcyclohex-2-ene-1,4-diols used as important intermediates for the preparation of ampelomins and deoxy-carbasugars was studied. These olefins were obtained in few steps from a chiral cis-diol resulting from microbial oxidation of toluene. Although the stereoselective hydrogenation of this type of substrates is difficult, high yields were obtained for heterogeneous hydrogenation using Adam’s catalyst, where steric hindrance controlled the stereochemical outcome of the process. On the other hand, for homogeneous hydrogenation of similar olefins using Crabtree’s catalyst, coordination with the allylic alcohols allowed for a controlled hydrogen addition from the more hindered face. In this manner two protocols for the hydrogenation of these types of substrates resulting in complementary stereoselectivities are described.     

Copolymeric nano/microgels of N-isopropylacrylamide and carboxyalkyl methacrylamides: Effect of methylene chains and the ionization state of the weak acids on size and sensitivity to pH and temperature

ABSTRACT

We prepared nano/microgels by precipitation copolymerization of N-isopropylacrylamide (NIPAAm), and one of three different carboxyalkyl methacrylamides [methacryloylamido hexanoic acid (M₅), 8-methacryloylamido octanoic acid (M₇), and 11-methacryloylamido undecanoic acid (M₁₀)], either in the acid forms or as carboxylates (potassium salts). The hydrodynamic diameter (Dh) of the nano/microgels prepared with the carboxylates was smaller (≈100 nm for M₁₀ copolymers), compared to the size of homopolymeric NIPAAm microgels prepared by dispersion polymerization (around 600 nm), indicating that the carboxylates act as surfactants reducing the size of the seeds during the polymerization process. These materials presented a swollen-shrunken transition temperature (T _tr) similar to the T _tr of the homopolymeric NIPAAm microgels, without pH sensitivity. On the other hand, the copolymeric microgels prepared from the acid form of the comonomers have a similar or bigger size than NIPAAm microgels. For these copolymers, the T _tr can be tuned by the type and proportion of acid comonomer used and present pH sensitivity. This is important for biomedical applications such as positive temperature control release. Polyelectrolyte titration demonstrates that the nano/microgels prepared with the carboxylates behave as hard spheres, while the microgels prepared with the weak acid behave as porous materials.     

Evaluation of the Storage Conditions and Type of Cork Stopper on the Quality of Bottled White Wines

The effects of different storage conditions, light exposure, temperature and different commercially available cork stoppers on the phenolic, volatile and sensorial profile of Verdejo wines were studied. Two natural corks of different visual quality and a microgranulated cork stopper were investigated over one year at two different storage conditions. One simulating light exposure and temperature in retail outlets and the other simulating optimal cellar conditions (darkness and 12 °C). The wines stored under commercial conditions showed greater losses of total and free SO₂ and higher levels of brown-yellowish tones, related to the oxidation of flavan-3-ols. Although these wines underwent a decrease in the total content of stilbenes, a significant increase in trans-piceid was observed. In addition, these wines suffered important changes in their volatile and sensory profile. Volatile compounds with fruity and floral aromas decreased significantly, while volatile compounds related to aged-type characters, as linalool oxides, vitispirane, TDN or furan derivatives increased. Wines stored in darkness at 12 °C underwent minor changes and their sensory profiles were similar to wine before bottling. The high-quality natural corks and microgranulated corks better preserved the quality of the white wines from a sensory point of view. These results showed that temperature and light exposure conditions (diffuse white LEDs and 24 ± 2 °C) in retail outlets considerably decrease the quality of bottled white wines and, consequently, their shelf life, due to the premature development of aged-type characters.     

Intermolecular and Regioselective Access to Polysubstituted Benzo‐ and Dihydrobenzo[c]azepine Derivatives: Modulating the Reactivity of Group 6 Non‐Heteroatom‐Stabilized Alkynyl Carbene Complexes

We highlight the versatility of non‐heteroatom‐stabilized tungsten–carbene complexes 3 synthesized in situ, which have been used in a modular approach to access 2‐benzazepinium isolable intermediates 5 . By employing very mild conditions, benzazepinium derivatives 5 have been obtained in high yield from simple compounds, such as acetylides 2 , Fischer‐type alkoxycarbenes 1 , and phenylimines 4 . The process, involving a formal [4+3] heterocycloaddition, occurs in a totally regioselective manner, which differs from the approach previously observed in similar procedures for other carbene analogues. This work, which involves three components, reveals a control of the reactivity of non‐heteroatom‐stabilized carbene complexes 3 ([4+3] vs. [2+2]‐heterocycloaddition reactions) depending on the acetylide substitution pattern. The influence of the substitution pattern in the behavior of the complexes has been computationally analyzed and rationalized. Finally, elaboration of the 2‐benzazepinium intermediates allows access to 3H‐benzo[c]azepines 6 and 3H‐1,2‐dihydrobenzo[c]azepines 7 – 9 with high control of the substitution of the nine positions of the heterocycle.     

Iboga Inspired N-Indolylethyl-Substituted Isoquinuclidines as a Bioactive Scaffold: Chemoenzymatic Synthesis and Characterization as GDNF Releasers and Antitrypanosoma Agents

The first stage of the drug discovery process involves the identification of small compounds with biological activity. Iboga alkaloids are monoterpene indole alkaloids (MIAs) containing a fused isoquinuclidine-tetrahydroazepine ring. Both the natural products and the iboga-inspired synthetic analogs have shown a wide variety of biological activities. Herein, we describe the chemoenzymatic preparation of a small library of novel N-indolylethyl-substituted isoquinuclidines as iboga-inspired compounds, using toluene as a starting material and an imine Diels–Alder reaction as the key step in the synthesis. The new iboga series was investigated for its potential to promote the release of glial cell line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) by C6 glioma cells, and to inhibit the growth of infective trypanosomes. GDNF is a neurotrophic factor widely recognized by its crucial role in development, survival, maintenance, and protection of dopaminergic neuronal circuitries affected in several neurological and psychiatric pathologies. Four compounds of the series showed promising activity as GDNF releasers, and a leading structure (compound 11) was identified for further studies. The same four compounds impaired the growth of bloodstream Trypanosoma brucei brucei (EC₅₀ 1–8 μM) and two of them (compounds 6 and 14) showed a good selectivity index.     

Entropies and IPR as Markers for a Phase Transition in a Two-Level Model for Atom–Diatomic Molecule Coexistence

A quantum phase transition (QPT) in a simple model that describes the coexistence of atoms and diatomic molecules is studied. The model, which is briefly discussed, presents a second-order ground state phase transition in the thermodynamic (or large particle number) limit, changing from a molecular condensate in one phase to an equilibrium of diatomic molecules–atoms in coexistence in the other one. The usual markers for this phase transition are the ground state energy and the expected value of the number of atoms (alternatively, the number of molecules) in the ground state. In this work, other markers for the QPT, such as the inverse participation ratio (IPR), and particularly, the Rényi entropy, are analyzed and proposed as QPT markers. Both magnitudes present abrupt changes at the critical point of the QPT.