A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis

This paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.     

Multicriteria decision making under uncertainty

Formalization for problems of multicriteria decision making under uncertainty is constructed in terms of guaranteed and weak estimates. A relevant definition of the vector maximinimax value is given. Parameterization and approximation of maximum, minimax, and maximinimax values based on the inverse logical convolution are suggested. An application for multicommodity networks is considered. Received: December 13, 2000 / Accepted: August 21, 2001?Published online May 8, 2002     

VIBRATION OF TWISTED AND CURVED CYLINDRICAL PANELS WITH VARIABLE THICKNESS

A numerical procedure, with an exact strain-displacement relationship of twisted and curved cylindrical panels having variable thickness derived by considering the Green strain tensor on general shell theory, is presented using the principle of virtual work and the Rayleigh-Ritz method with algebraic polynomials as in-plane and transverse displacement functions. The accuracy and applicability of the procedure are verified by comparing the present results with previous experimental and theoretical results for several panels. The effects of variation ratio of thickness in chordwise and lengthwise directions, twist, and curvature both in two directions aforementioned on vibrations of cylindrical panels are studied in detail, and typical vibration mode shapes are plotted to demonstrate the effects.     

Ermakov Approach for Minisuperspace Oscillators

The Wheeler–DeWitt equation of arbitrary Hartle–Hawking factor ordering for several minisuperspace universe models, such as the pure gravity Friedmann–Robertson–Walker and Taub ones, is mapped onto the dynamics of corresponding classical oscillators. The latter ones are studied by the classical Ermakov invariant method, which is a natural approach in this context. For the more realistic case of a minimally coupled massive scalar field, one can study, within the same type of approach, the corresponding squeezing features as a possible means of describing cosmological evolution. Finally, we comment on the analogy with the accelerator physics.     

Odd-Excited Binomial States of the Radiation Field and Some of Their Statistical Properties

In this paper a new state called odd-excited binomial state (OEBS) is introduced. It interpolates between the odd number state and the odd-excited coherent state. We discuss some statistical properties, such as the Glauber second-order correlation function and squeezing phenomenon (normal and amplitude-squared squeezing) for this state. The quasiprobability distribution functions (Husimi Q-function and Wigner W-function) are also examined.     

Synthesis and Reactions of Some New Pyrrolylfuro[2,3‐d]Pyrimidines and Pyrrolopyrazinofuropyrimidines

5‐Amino‐4‐methyl‐2‐phenyl‐6‐substitutedfuro[2,3‐d]pyrimidines ( 2a‐c ) were reacted with 2,5‐dimethoxytetrahydrfuran to afford the pyrrolyl derivatives 3a‐c . Compound 3a was chosen as intermediate for the synthesis of poly fused heterocycles incorporated furopyrimidines moiety 4–11 . Some of the synthesized compounds were screened for their antibacterial and antifungal activities.     

Germanium growth on Br-terminated Si(1 0 0)

The consequences of Ge deposition on Br-terminated Si(1 0 0) were studied with scanning tunneling microscopy at ambient temperature after annealing at 650 K. One monolayer of Br was sufficient to prevent the formation of Ge huts beyond the critical thickness of 3 ML. This is possible because Br acts as a surfactant whose presence lowered the diffusivity of Ge adatoms. Hindered mobility was manifest at low coverage through the formation of short Ge chains. Further deposition resulted in the extension and connection of the Ge chains and gave rise to the buildup of incomplete layers. The deposition of 7 ML of Ge resulted in a rough surface characterized by irregularly shaped clusters. A short 800 K anneal desorbed the Br and allowed Ge atoms to reorganize into the more energetically favorable “hut” structures produced by conventional Ge overlayer growth on Si(1 0 0).     

Sequential Importance Sampling Algorithms for Dynamic Stochastic Programming

This paper gives a comprehensive treatment of EVPI-based sequential importance sampling algorithms for dynamic (multistage) stochastic programming problems. Both theory and computational algorithms are discussed. Under general assumptions it is shown that both an expected value of perfect information (EVPI) process and the corresponding marginal EVPI process (the supremum norm of the conditional expectation of its generalized derivative) are nonanticipative nonnegative supermartingales. These processes are used as importance criteria in the class of sampling algorithms treated in the paper. When their values are negligible at a node of the current sample problem scenario tree, scenarios descending from the node are replaced by a single scenario at the next iteration. On the other hand, high values lead to increasing the number of scenarios descending from the node. Both the small sample and asymptotic properties of the sample problem estimates arising from the algorithms are established, and the former are evaluated numerically in the context of a financial planning problem. Finally, current and future research is described. Bibliography: 49 titles. __________ Published in Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Vol. 312, 2004, pp. 94–129.