In this paper, we focus on the critical periods in the economy that are characterized by unusual and large fluctuations in macroeconomic indicators, like those measuring inflation and unemployment. We analyze U.S. data for 70 years from 1948 until 2018. To capture their fluctuation essence, we concentrate on the non-Gaussianity of their distributions. We investigate how the non-Gaussianity of these variables affects the coupling structure of them. We distinguish “regular” from “rare” events, in calculating the correlation coefficient, emphasizing that both cases might lead to a different response of the economy. Through the “multifractal random wall” model, one can see that the non-Gaussianity depends on time scales. The non-Gaussianity of unemployment is noticeable only for periods shorter than one year; for longer periods, the fluctuation distribution tends to a Gaussian behavior. In contrast, the non-Gaussianities of inflation fluctuations persist for all time scales. We observe through the “bivariate multifractal random walk” that despite the inflation features, the non-Gaussianity of the coupled structure is finite for scales less than one year, drops for periods larger than one year, and becomes small for scales greater than two years. This means that the footprint of the monetary policies intentionally influencing the inflation and unemployment couple is observed only for time horizons smaller than two years. Finally, to improve some understanding of the effect of rare events, we calculate high moments of the variables’ increments for various q orders and various time scales. The results show that coupling with high moments sharply increases during crises. 相似文献
Excitation functions and theoretical yields via charge particle induced reactions were evaluated using EMPIRE-3.2.2 and ALICE/ASH codes and the obtained results have been discussed and compared with the available reported experimental data. It has been verified that natCu(p,n)65Zn reaction is the optimum 65Zn production route. The 65Zn was produced using natCu(p,xn) 65Zn reaction in the energy range of 16.8 → 12.2 MeV with the thick target yield of 0.15 ± 0.005 MBq/μA h. The 65Zn radionuclide was purified by anion exchange chromatography.
Monobromination of 1,5-cyclooctadiene, followed by cyclopropanation with ethyl diazoacetate, led to the formation of endo and exo ethyl 4,5-dibromobicyclo[6.1.0]nonane-9-carboxylates 3a and 3b. Bis-dehydrobromination of 3a and 3b using 1,8-diazabicyclo[5,4,0]undec-7-ene (DBU) afforded the endo and exo ethyl bicyclo[6.1.0]nona-3,5-diene-9-carboxylates 4a and 4b. Reduction of these compounds to the corresponding alcohols 5a and 5b and subsequent oxidation with pyridinium chlorochromate (PCC) resulted in the formation of the target compounds endo and exo bicyclo[6.1.0]nona-3,5-diene-9-carboxaldehydes 6a and 6b. 相似文献
A simple and compact dual-wavelength continuous wave (CW) laser-diode end-pumped laser operating simultaneously at 1,064.5 and 1,085.5 nm in a single a-cut Nd:YVO4 has been demonstrated. We have used two Nd:YVO4 crystals with different Nd+3 concentrations and lengths; 0.1 %-14 mm and 0.25 %-12 mm. The maximum total output power of 5 and 6.18 W, including 1,064.5 and 1,085.5 nm, is achieved at the incident pump power of 22 and 18 W, with a slope efficiency 23.3 and 32.9 %, respectively, for the crystals of 0.1 %-14 mm and 0.25 %-12 mm. The calculations show both wavelengths lasing at 1,064.5 and 1,085.5 nm can possess the same threshold when reflectivity of the output coupler at 1,064.5 nm is less than 87.5 % and, at this condition, the reflectivity of the output coupler at 1,085.5 nm increases nearly linearly with that of 1,064.5 nm. 相似文献
This paper proposes a continuous covering location model with risk consideration. The investigated model is an extension of the discrete covering location models in continuous space. The objective function consists of installation and risk costs. Because of uncertain covering radius, customer satisfaction degree of covering radius is introduced by fuzzy concept. Since, the uncertainty may cause risk of uncovering customers; the risk cost is added to the objective function. The installation cost is assigned to a zone with a predetermined radius from its center. The model is solved by a fuzzy method named α-cut. After solving the model based on different α-values, the zones with the largest possibilities are determined for locating new facilities and the best locations are calculated based on the obtained possibilities. Then, the model is solved to determine the best covering values. This paper, also introduces a risk analysis method based on Response Surface Methodology (RSM) to consider risk management in the location models. Finally, a numerical example is expressed to illustrate the proposed model. 相似文献
We develop an economic production quantity (EPQ) model with random defective items and failure in repair. The existence of only one machine results with limited production capacity and shortages. The aim of this research is to derive the optimal cycle length, the optimal production quantity and the optimal back ordered quantity for each product so as to minimize the total expected cost (holding, shortage, production, setup, defective items and repair costs). The convexity of the model is derived and the objective function is proved convex. Two numerical examples illustrate the practical usage of the proposed method. 相似文献
Isothermal and dynamic differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was exploited to study the curing behavior of diglycidyl ether bisphenol-A epoxy resin with various combining ratios of dicyandiamide (DICY) and nadic methyl anhydride (NMA). Curves of prepared samples indicated that the enthalpy of the reaction decreased with increasing the molar ratios (NMA/DICY) up to 40% after which an exothermic peak peculiar to the effect of anhydride appeared at a higher temperature. The curing behavior examination of the samples containing the aforementioned molar ratio of NMA/DICY (= 40%) was carried out using isothermal condition at different temperatures (130–145 °C) and dynamic condition DSC at various heating rates (2.5–20 °C min−1). Under the isothermal condition, by constructing a master curve, the values of activation energy (Ea) and pre-exponential factor (A) were calculated 89.3 kJ mol−1 and 1.2 × 10+9 s−1, respectively. The activation energy of the curing reactions in a dynamic mode was obtained 85.32 kJ mol−1 and 88.02 kJ mol−1 using Kissinger and Ozawa methods, respectively. Likewise, pre-exponential factors were also calculated 3.35 × 10+8 and 7.4 × 10 +8 s−1, respectively. The overall order of reaction for both conditions was found to be a value around 3.