Blinded predictions of host-guest standard free energies of binding in the SAMPL5 challenge

In the context of the SAMPL5 blinded challenge standard free energies of binding were predicted for a dataset of 22 small guest molecules and three different host molecules octa-acids (OAH and OAMe) and a cucurbituril (CBC). Three sets of predictions were submitted, each based on different variations of classical molecular dynamics alchemical free energy calculation protocols based on the double annihilation method. The first model (model A) yields a free energy of binding based on computed free energy changes in solvated and host-guest complex phases; the second (model B) adds long range dispersion corrections to the previous result; the third (model C) uses an additional standard state correction term to account for the use of distance restraints during the molecular dynamics simulations. Model C performs the best in terms of mean unsigned error for all guests (MUE \(3.2\,<\,3.4\,<\,3.6\,\text{kcal}\,\text{mol}^{-1}\)—95 % confidence interval) for the whole data set and in particular for the octa-acid systems (MUE \(1.7\,<\,1.9\,<\,2.1\,\text{kcal}\,\text{mol}^{-1}\)). The overall correlation with experimental data for all models is encouraging (\(R^2\, 0.65\,<\,0.70<0.75\)). The correlation between experimental and computational free energy of binding ranks as one of the highest with respect to other entries in the challenge. Nonetheless the large MUE for the best performing model highlights systematic errors, and submissions from other groups fared better with respect to this metric.     

A combined treatment of hydration and dynamical effects for the modeling of host–guest binding thermodynamics: the SAMPL5 blinded challenge

As part of the SAMPL5 blinded experiment, we computed the absolute binding free energies of 22 host–guest complexes employing a novel approach based on the BEDAM single-decoupling alchemical free energy protocol with parallel replica exchange conformational sampling and the AGBNP2 implicit solvation model specifically customized to treat the effect of water displacement as modeled by the Hydration Site Analysis method with explicit solvation. Initial predictions were affected by the lack of treatment of ionic charge screening, which is very significant for these highly charged hosts, and resulted in poor relative ranking of negatively versus positively charged guests. Binding free energies obtained with Debye–Hückel treatment of salt effects were in good agreement with experimental measurements. Water displacement effects contributed favorably and very significantly to the observed binding affinities; without it, the modeling predictions would have grossly underestimated binding. The work validates the implicit/explicit solvation approach employed here and it shows that comprehensive physical models can be effective at predicting binding affinities of molecular complexes requiring accurate treatment of conformational dynamics and hydration.     

On the fly estimation of host–guest binding free energies using the movable type method: participation in the SAMPL5 blind challenge

We review our performance in the SAMPL5 challenge for predicting host–guest binding affinities using the movable type (MT) method. The challenge included three hosts, acyclic Cucurbit[2]uril and two octa-acids with and without methylation at the entrance to their binding cavities. Each host was associated with 6–10 guest molecules. The MT method extrapolates local energy landscapes around particular molecular states and estimates the free energy by Monte Carlo integration over these landscapes. Two blind submissions pairing MT with variants of the KECSA potential function yielded mean unsigned errors of 1.26 and 1.53 kcal/mol for the non-methylated octa-acid, 2.83 and 3.06 kcal/mol for the methylated octa-acid, and 2.77 and 3.36 kcal/mol for Cucurbit[2]uril host. While our results are in reasonable agreement with experiment, we focused on particular cases in which our estimates gave incorrect results, particularly with regard to association between the octa-acids and an adamantane derivative. Working on the hypothesis that differential solvation effects play a role in effecting computed binding affinities for the parent octa-acid and the methylated octa-acid and that the ligands bind inside the pockets (rather than on the surface) we devised a new solvent accessible surface area term to better quantify solvation energy contributions in MT based studies. To further explore this issue a, molecular dynamics potential of mean force (PMF) study indicates that, as found by our docking calculations, the stable binding mode for this ligand is inside (rather than surface bound) the octa-acid cavity whether the entrance is methylated or not. The PMF studies also obtained the correct order for the methylation-induced change in binding affinities and associated the difference, to a large extent to differential solvation effects. Overall, the SAMPL5 challenge yielded in improvements our solvation modeling and also demonstrated the need for thorough validation of input data integrity prior to any computational analysis.