Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

C72,La2@C72几何结构和电子性质的计算研究

采用密度泛涵理论(density functional theory,DFT)中的广义梯度近似(generally gradient approximation,GGA)对富勒烯C72和内掺金属La富勒烯La2@C72三种同分异构体的几何结构和电子结构进行研究.发现在C72的三种同分异构体中,满足独立五边形规则(isolated-pentagon-rule,IPR)的C72(D6d)结构最为稳定;在La2@C72三种同分异构体中,有着两对两两相邻五元环(twofused-pentagon)的La2@C72(#10611)结构最为稳定,而满足IPR的La2@C72(D6d)的结构变成了最不稳定结构.从能级图和态密度图分析得知,笼子稳定性的变化与La原子的原子轨道与C72原子轨道之间的杂化有关.Mulliken电荷分析得知,La2@C72(#10611)的两个La原子共转移了约3个电子给C72,并且,它们几乎分布在整个C笼上,形成的电子结构为La23+@C3-72.净自旋分析得知,La2@C72(#10611)中La原子磁性完全淬灭.     

轴向流对Z箍缩等离子体稳定性的影响

利用理想磁流体力学(MHD)模型对有轴向流参与的Z箍缩等离子体不稳定性进行了分析.对可压缩平板等离子体模型的色散关系进行了推导,讨论了三种不同等离子体状态下的不稳定性增长率.结果显示,等离子体的可压缩性对磁瑞利-泰勒/开尔文-亥姆霍兹(MRT/KH)杂化不稳定性有抑制作用,改善了轴向剪切流对长波长扰动的影响.分析了不同轴向流速度分布对系统稳定性的影响.结果表明,对于峰值相同的不同轴向流,其对不稳定性的抑制效果只依赖于扰动集中区域内速度剪切的大小,与其他位置的速度剪切无关.     

铁分子Fe2的自旋极化效应

采用密度泛函方法(B3P86)对 Fe_2分子结构进行了优化.计算结果中未观察到自旋污染,基态波函数与高态波函数并未混杂,结果表明,Fe_2中有8个未配对电子,这些电子空间分布不同和自旋平行产生的自旋极化效应,使 Fe_2能量最低.计算结果表明,Fe_2分子的基态是~9∑_g~ ,并非~7Δ_u,进而表明 Fe_2的自旋平行效应比电子自旋配对效应要强.计算得到该分子基态的二阶、三阶和四阶力常数分别为1.4115×10~(-2)aJ/nm~2、-37.1751×10~3aJ/nm~3和 98.7596×10~4aJ/nm~4；光谱数据ω_eχ_e、B_e、α_e分别为0.3522、0.0345、 0.4963×10~(-4)cm~(-1)；离解能为3.5522eV,平衡键长为0.2137nm,振动频率为292.914cm~(-1)；并得到了 Murrel-Sorbie 函数.     

油水两液相一维非等温渗流的传递分析

在求解油水两液相非等温渗流的温度场、压力场基础上,以驱动功、驱动功率、驱动阻力、驱动速率为特征参数,对该过程进行(火用)传递分析。数值模拟的结果表明:含水通过降低油的相对渗透率、从而增大驱动阻力、减小驱动功率, 最终导致原油产量降低。     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

355nm Nd∶YAG激光在H_2中的高效一级斯托克斯转换

对脉冲Nd∶YAG激光(355 nm)在H2和H2∶He-Ar混合气体中的受激拉曼散射(SRS)进行了研究。在0.5 MPa的氢气中,同时测量到从二级反斯托克斯到三级斯托克斯的多波长输出,其总转化效率达88%;而高压下只剩下一级和二级斯托克斯输出,其中二级斯托克斯最大能量转化效率达44%(对应量子效率为63%)。由于高级斯托克斯的竞争,纯氢气中一级斯托克斯的最大能量转换效率不超过43%。通过向3 MPa氢气中掺入2 MPaAr气后,很好地抑制了二级斯托克斯的产生,从而获得了能量转换效率高达71%(对应量子效率为83%)的一级斯托克斯输出。对四波混频和级联受激拉曼散射在氢气多级斯托克斯产生中的作用以及惰性气体对它们的影响进行了讨论。     

Quantum states in fabricating poly-Si films

The quantum states are presented in these processions of fabricating poly-Si films. Amorphous silicon films prepared by PECVD has been crystallized by conventional furnace annealing (FA) and rapid thermal annealing (RTA), respectively. It is found that the thin films grain size present quantum states with the increasing of the gas flow ratios of SiH₄, H₂ mixture, substrate temperatures, frequency power, annealing temperature and time.     

The polar ionosphere at Zhongshan station on May 11, 1999, the day the solar wind almost disappeared

The solar wind almost disappeared on May 11, 1999: the solar wind plasma density and dynamic pressure were less than 1cm⁻³ and 0.1 nPa respectively, while the interplanetary magnetic field was northward. The polar ionospheric data observed by the multi-instruments at Zhongshan Station in Antarctica on such special event day was compared with those of the control day (May 14). It was shown that geomagnetic activity was very quiet on May 11 at Zhongshan. The magnetic pulsation, which usually occurred at about magnetic noon, did not appear. The ionosphere was steady and stratified, and the F₂ layer spread very little. The critical frequency of day-side F₂ layer, f₀F₂, was larger than that of control day, and the peak of f₀F₂ appeared 2 hours earlier. The ionospheric drift velocity was less than usual. There were intensive auroral E_s appearing at magnetic noon. All this indicates that the polar ionosphere was extremely quiet and geomagnetic field was much more dipolar on May 11. There were some signatures of auroral substorm before midnight, such as the negative deviation of the geomagnetic H component, accompanied with auroral E_s and weak Pc3 pulsation.