Rule-based procedures in short-term electricity load forecasting

A short-term load-forecasting system has been developed to predictload demand for the Irish Electricity Supply Board from 1 to10 days in advance. Model output is acceptably accurate at mosttimes, but special days such as public holidays and the Easterweekend etc. require individual treatment. The basic model usedin everyday load forecasting is presented first, and specialdays when this model fails in accuracy are then examined andtreated separately using rule-based procedures. These proceduresare based on identified relationships between weather conditionsand prevailing daily load shapes. Comparisons are made betweenthe forecasts for these special days as given by the standardmodel and the ruled-based procedures.     

The effect of complexing processes on energy transfer Tl+→Gd3+ and Tl+→Tb3+ in glass

T. Shevchenko Kiev University, 252022 Kiev, Pr. Akad. Glushakova, 6, Ukraine. Translated from Zhurnal Prikladnoi Spektroskopii, Vol. 62, No. 3, pp. 192–196, May–June, 1995.     

Some inverse problems of internal-diffusion kinetics of adsorption

Methods are proposed for determining the diffusion coefficients of adsorbed molecules and the adsorption isotherms from given concentrations of the solutes in the external solution. The methods are based on a comparison of experimental data with the numerical results produced by a mathematical model of internal-diffusion kinetics of adsorption from a constant bounded volume.Translated from Vychislitel'naya i Prikladnaya Matematika, No. 66, pp. 41–46, 1988.     

The amplitude and phase of a transmission holographic grating due to four-wave interaction in a photorefractive medium

Based on a previously developed two-level model of four-wave interaction in photorefractive crystals, expressions for the amplitude and phase of a transmission holographic grating have been obtained. The analysis of these expressions points to the dependence of both the amplitude and the phase of the grating on the intensity of the readout beam.     

Synthesis, thermal treatment and characterization of cobalt ferrite-based nanocomposites

We have used time-differential perturbed angular correlation (PAC) spectroscopy with ¹⁸¹Ta-probes to study the electric field gradient at Zr-sites in synthetic zircon and hafnon between room temperature and 1,200°C. PAC spectra are similar to those obtained from naturally occurring zircons. In particular, a change in slope of the quadrupole coupling vs. temperature is observed in the synthetic zircon at the same temperature as seen in natural zircons from the Mud Tank carbonatite (Australia). The synthetic hafnon data also shows this feature but at somewhat higher temperature. Low-temperature PAC spectra of both synthetic zircon and hafnon have a clearly reduced anisotropy. We believe that the cause for this is a electronic defect, possibly created during the β-decay of the probe parent nucleus.     

Aqueous solution and solid state interactions of lanthanide ions with a methacrylic ester polymer bearing pendant 15‐crown‐5 moieties

The interaction between trivalent lanthanide ions and poly(1,4,7,10,13‐pentaoxacyclopentadecan‐2‐yl‐methyl methacrylate), PCR5, in aqueous solution and in the solid state have been studied. In aqueous solution, evidence of a weak interaction between the lanthanides and PCR5 comes from the small red shift of the Ce(III) emission spectra and the slight broadening of the Gd(III) EPR spectra. From the Tb(III) lifetimes in the presence of H₂O and D₂O the loss of one or two water coordinated molecules is confirmed when Tb(III) is bound to PCR5. An association constant of the order of 200 M^?1 was obtained for a 1:1 (lanthanide:15‐crown‐5) complex from the shift of the polymer NMR signals induced by Tb(III). A similar association constant is obtained from the differences of the molar conductivity of Ce(III) solution at various concentrations in presence and absence of PCR5. When Tb(III) is adsorbed on PCR5 membranes, lifetime experiments in H₂O and D₂O confirm the loss of 5 or 6 water coordinated molecules indicating that in solid state the lanthanide(III)‐PCR5 interaction is stronger than in solution. The adsorption of Ce(III) in PCR5 membranes shows a Langmuir type isotherm, from which an equilibrium constant of 39 M^?1 has been calculated. SEM shows that the membrane morphology is not much affected by lanthanide adsorption. Support for lanthanide ion–crown interactions comes from ab initio calculations on 15‐crown‐5/La(III) complex. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 1788–1799, 2007     

The Clock Paradox in a Static Homogeneous Gravitational Field1

The gedanken experiment of the clock paradox is solved exactly using the general relativistic equations for a static homogeneous gravitational field. We demonstrate that the general and special relativistic clock paradox solutions are identical and in particular that they are identical for finite acceleration. Practical expressions are obtained for proper time and coordinate time by using the destination distance as the key observable parameter. This solution provides a formal demonstration of the identity between the special and general relativistic clock paradox with finite acceleration and where proper time is assumed to be the same in both formalisms. By solving the equations of motion for a freely falling clock in a static homogeneous field elapsed times are calculated for realistic journeys to the stars. ¹ Both authors contributed equally to this paper.     

Metallic films forming on the surface of alkali-halide crystals during thermal diffusion of intracrystalline immpurities

It was detected for the first time that films consisting of a transition-metal-based structure form (via thermal diffusion of intracrystalline impurities) on the surface of alkali-halide (LiF, NaF) crystals activated by transition metals Co, Ni, or Mn. The thickness, density, and composition of the films are shown to be different, depending on the heat treatment conditions. The crystals were annealed at temperatures varying from 473 to 1073 K in vacuum and air. The surface structures forming upon annealing in vacuum exhibit magnetic properties. The films were studied by optical, x-ray fluorescence, and electron spectroscopy to reveal the mechanisms of transition-metal film formation during thermal annealing.     

Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.