Targeting Bayes factors with direct-path non-equilibrium thermodynamic integration

Thermodynamic integration (TI) for computing marginal likelihoods is based on an inverse annealing path from the prior to the posterior distribution. In many cases, the resulting estimator suffers from high variability, which particularly stems from the prior regime. When comparing complex models with differences in a comparatively small number of parameters, intrinsic errors from sampling fluctuations may outweigh the differences in the log marginal likelihood estimates. In the present article, we propose a TI scheme that directly targets the log Bayes factor. The method is based on a modified annealing path between the posterior distributions of the two models compared, which systematically avoids the high variance prior regime. We combine this scheme with the concept of non-equilibrium TI to minimise discretisation errors from numerical integration. Results obtained on Bayesian regression models applied to standard benchmark data, and a complex hierarchical model applied to biopathway inference, demonstrate a significant reduction in estimator variance over state-of-the-art TI methods.     

Synthesis by Emulsion Polymerization of Poly(butyl acrylate-co-silver acrylate) Ionomers and Evaluation of their Possible Applications

The synthesis by emulsion polymerization and the characterization by a battery of techniques of poly(butyl acrylate-co-silver acrylate) [poly(BuAc-co-AgAc)] ionomers are reported here. Reaction rates were fast and conversions around 90% were obtained in less than one hour, regardless of the initial ratio of butyl acrylate and silver acrylate employed (BuAc/AgAc = 90/10, 80/20, 70/30). Particle size was in the range of 176 to 200 nm, depending on the BuAc/AgAc ratio. Ionomers’ formation was corroborated by infrared spectroscopy and inferred by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). DSC disclosed that the poly(BuAc-co-AgAc) has two glass transition temperatures: one at ca. ?49°C due to relaxation of the ionomer backbone domains rich in BuAc and another ca. 35°C due to the relaxation of the backbone domains where the AgAc-units content was higher. Young moduli increased as the copolymers became richer in AgAc. Antibacterial tests against Escherichia coli with the 90/10 (BuAc/AgAc) ionomer revealed that the bacteria population diminishes from 5 log CFU/mL to less than 0.3 MPN/mL after one hour of contact with the ionomers. Also, we demonstrated that the ionomers are excellent compatibilizers for making semiconductive films of n-dodecylbenzene sulfonic acid-doped polyaniline (PANIDBSA)-poly(BuAc-co-AgAc) and poly(n-butyl methacrylate) (PBMA) blends. The electrical conductivity of the blend films, which were homogeneous, rose as the AgAc content in the films increased.     

Macromodeling of high-speed interconnects by positive interpolation of vertical segments

In this paper a novel macromodeling scheme is presented to model the per unit of length (p.u.l.) parameters of uniform transmission lines. In particular, it is focused on single on-chip interconnects, because their p.u.l. parameters are influenced by the presence of semiconductor (s) and as such exhibit a strong frequency-dependency, making the modeling process harder. Starting from a set of very accurate tabulated data samples, obtained by two-dimensional electromagnetic modeling, rational models for the four p.u.l. parameters are constructed. The novelty of the approach lies in the fact that the rational models are positive by construction and that a controllable accuracy is obtained. These models can then further be used to construct multivariate models, e.g., for variability analysis. Here, the novel scheme is applied to an on-chip inverted embedded microstrip line, of which the signal integrity behavior is assessed in both the frequency and the time domain, demonstrating the applicability of the macromodels.     

Comparison of Force Fields on the Basis of Various Model Approaches—How To Design the Best Model for the [CnMIM][NTf2] Family of Ionic Liquids

In this contribution, we present two new united‐atom force fields (UA‐FFs) for 1‐alkyl‐3‐methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [C_nMIM][NTf₂] (n=1, 2, 4, 6, 8) ionic liquids (ILs). One is parametrized manually, and the other is developed with the gradient‐based optimization workflow (GROW). By doing so, we wanted to perform a hard test to determine how researchers could benefit from semiautomated optimization procedures. As with our already published all‐atom force field (AA‐FF) for [C_nMIM][NTf₂] (T. Köddermann, D. Paschek, R. Ludwig, ChemPhysChem­ 2007, 8, 2464 ), the new force fields were derived to fit experimental densities, self‐diffusion coefficients, and NMR rotational correlation times for the IL cation and for water molecules dissolved in [C₂MIM][NTf₂]. In the manual force field, the alkyl chains of the cation and the CF₃ groups of the anion were treated as united atoms. In the GROW force field, only the alkyl chains of the cation were united. All other parts of the structures of the ions remained unchanged to prevent any loss of physical information. Structural, dynamic, and thermodynamic properties such as viscosity, cation rotational correlation times, and heats of vaporization calculated with the new force fields were compared with values simulated with the previous AA‐FF and the experimental data. All simulated properties were in excellent agreement with the experimental values. Altogether, the UA‐FFs are slightly superior for speed‐up reasons. The UA‐FF speeds up the simulation by about 100 % and reduces the demanded disk space by about 78 %. More importantly, real time and efforts to generate force fields could be significantly reduced by utilizing GROW. The real time for the GROW parametrization in this work was 2 months. Manual parametrization, in contrast, may take up to 12 months, and this is, therefore, a significant increase in speed, though it is difficult to estimate the duration of manual parametrization.     

Electroactive Polymers: Developments of and Perspectives for Dielectric Elastomers

We present the development and applications of dielectric elastomers. For the last 10 years the significance of this class of polymers has risen as more applications seem possible and first products have been commercialized.     

A data-driven quadratic stability condition and its application for stabilizing unknown nonlinear systems

This paper proposes a data-driven stability criterion for quadratic stabilization of unknown nonlinear discrete-time systems. The novelty of this quadratic stability criterion lies in the direct use of the time series of system states, instead of using mathematical models. The data-driven stability criterion is utilized to design a control for stabilizing unknown nonlinear systems using online black-box system identification. The effectiveness and the adaptability of the proposed approach are compared with those of adaptive feedback linearization method with an example of stabilizing a nonlinear aeroelastic system.