Developing a risk-assesment methodology in the U.K.defence industry

As a leading defence equipment company, the Dynamics Divisionof British Aerospace Defence Company (BAeDef(DD)) has experiencedthe worst effects of post-Coldwar defence cuts, a global recession,and a determination by the U.K. Government to achieve greatervalue for money in defence procurement. The major tenet of thisnew approach to defence prwurement was 'eyes on, hands off',promoting a shift of the management of project risks from theMinistry of Defence (MOD) to industry. Initial industry reactionwas sceptical but bxame increasingly compliant as tenderingrequirements included visibility of contractors' risk assessment.This paper describes the risk-assessment methodology createdby BAeDef(DD) to meet these changed conditions. The human and organizational aspects of these developments onrisk have helped create a pro-active risk-management cultureat BAeDef(DD). Continuous assessment of project risks providesthe impetus for wider thinking beyond risk-taking or risk-aversionpreferences, leading to greater realism in planning. Decisionsto implement risk resolution measures require competence incost-benefit analysis. The conditions to foster this new behaviourare better-informed senior management, with the rejection ofbad news eliminated at all levels, and the laying of a pathto becoming a learning company.     

Calorimeter energy calibration using the energy conservation law

A new calorimeter energy calibration method was developed for the proposed ILC detectors. The method uses the center-of-mass energy of the accelerator as the reference. It has been shown that using the energy conservation law it is possible to make ECAL and HCAL cross calibration to reach a good energy resolution for the simple calorimeter energy sum.      

A possibility of parallel and anti-parallel diffraction measurements on neutron diffractometer employing bent perfect crystal monochromator at the monochromatic focusing condition

In a conventional diffractometer having single monochromator, only one position, parallel position, is used for the diffraction experiment (i.e. detection) because the resolution property of the other one, anti-parallel position, is very poor. However, a bent perfect crystal (BPC) monochromator at monochromatic focusing condition can provide a quite flat and equal resolution property at both parallel and anti-parallel positions and thus one can have a chance to use both sides for the diffraction experiment. From the data of the FWHM and the Δd/d measured on three diffraction geometries (symmetric, asymmetric compression and asymmetric expansion), we can conclude that the simultaneous diffraction measurement in both parallel and anti-parallel positions can be achieved.     

Influence of octupole interactions on the behavior of negative-parity states at low spins

The energies of negative-parity levels based on two-particle states exhibit a nonlinear behavior at low spins versus the core-rotation energy because the alignment process has not yet been completed for them. This behavior of negative-parity levels in the low-spin region is satisfactorily described upon the inclusion of octupole-octupole interactions. This is demonstrated within the rotational model involving the Coriolis mixing of states for the even-even isotopes ^162–168Hf.     

Nonlinear-optical and micro-Raman diagnostics of thin films and nanostructures of ABO3 ferroelectrics

Ferroelectric composite two-dimensional ferroelectric/aluminum oxide nanostructures were studied. A porous aluminum oxide matrix was used as a template into which a ferroelectric precursor was introduced, followed by annealing. The prepared nanostructures were studied using optical second harmonic generation and micro-Raman scattering.     

Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

Localising gravity in composite monopole brane worlds without bulk cosmological constant

We study a 7-dimensional brane world scenario with a Ricci-flat 3-brane residing in the core of a composite monopole defect, i.e., a defect composed of a 't Hooft–Polyakov and a global monopole. Admitting a direct interaction between the two bosonic sectors of the theory, we analyse the structure of the space–time in the limits of small, respectively large direct interaction coupling constant. For large direct interaction, the global monopole disappears from the system and leaves behind a negative cosmological constant in the bulk such that gravity-localising solutions are possible without a priori introduction of a bulk cosmological constant.