Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

The thermodynamic properties of Ln2BaO4 (Ln = Sm, Dy, Ho)

The thermodynamic properties of the Ln₂BaO₄ phases (Ln = Dy, Ho, Sm) were studied by the electromotive force method with a fluoride electrolyte (890–1180 K), solution calorimetry in 1.07 N hydrochloric acid at 298.15 K, and differential scanning calorimetry (298–860 K). The experimental data were jointly processed, and the thermodynamic functions of the compounds over the temperature range 298–1200 K were calculated.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos

The thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos made up of hollow tubular Mg₃Si₂O₅(OH)₄ filaments is measured in the range 5–300 K. The paper discusses the possibility of using this material in studies of the thermal conductivity of thin filaments of metals and semiconductors incorporated into the channels of crystalline chrysotile asbestos tubes.     

Effect of ion impinging on the microstructure and field emission of carbon nanotubes

Effects of ion impinging on the microstructure and field electron emission properties of screen-printed carbon nanotube films were investigated. We observed that the plasma treatment modified the microstructure of CNTs along with the remarkable increase of emission site density. With the prolongation of ion impinging time, the emission current falls down first, and then rises up to higher than that of the untreated films. It is proposed that the change of emission characteristics is due to the different emission mechanisms. After the treatment, electrons are emitted predominantly from the nano-nodes on the tube wall instead from the nanotube tips.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.