20 Years of Statistics at the National Center for Atmospheric Research

Almost every U.S.-based statistician working on problems motivated by atmospheric science is connected to the statistics program at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Through its permanent staff scientists, postdoctoral researchers, visitors, seminars, workshops, and published work, NCAR has made a profound impact on the community of statisticians working in the atmospheric and climate sciences. This past year saw a reorganization of statistics at NCAR. This article looks back at more than 20 years of statistics there.     

Perfect packings with complete graphs minus an edge

Let denote the graph obtained from K_r by deleting one edge. We show that for every integer r≥4 there exists an integer n₀=n₀(r) such that every graph G whose order n≥n₀ is divisible by r and whose minimum degree is at least contains a perfect -packing, i.e. a collection of disjoint copies of which covers all vertices of G. Here is the critical chromatic number of . The bound on the minimum degree is best possible and confirms a conjecture of Kawarabayashi for large n.     

Magnetic-field-induced lattice anomaly inside the superconducting state of CeCoIn5: anisotropic evidence of the possible Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov state

We report high magnetic field linear magnetostriction experiments on CeCoIn5 single crystals. Two features are remarkable: (i) a sharp discontinuity in all the crystallographic axes associated with the upper superconducting critical field B(c2) that becomes less pronounced as the temperature increases and (ii) a distinctive second orderlike feature observed only along the c axis in the high field (10 T < or approximately B< or = B(c2)) low temperature (T < or approximately 0.35 K) region. This second order transition is observed only when the magnetic field lies within 20 degrees of the ab planes and there is no signature of it above B(c2), which raises questions regarding its interpretation as a field induced magnetically ordered phase. Good agreement with previous results suggests that this anomaly is related to the transition to a possible Fulde-Ferrel-Larkin-Ovchinnikov superconducting state.     

Tricritical phenomena at the gamma-->alpha transition in Ce0.9-xLaxTh0.1 alloys

The gamma-->alpha isostructural transition in the Ce0.9-xLaxTh0.1 system is measured as a function of La alloying using specific heat, magnetic susceptibility, resistivity, thermal expansivity or striction measurements. A line of discontinuous transitions, as indicated by the change in volume, decreases exponentially from 118 K to close to 0 K with increasing La doping, and the transition changes from being first-order to continuous at a critical concentration, x(c) approximately 0.14. At the tricritical point, the coefficient of the linear T term in the specific heat gamma and the magnetic susceptibility increase rapidly near x(c) and approach large values at x=0.35 signifying that a heavy Fermi-liquid state evolves at large doping. The Wilson ratio reaches a value above 2 for a narrow range of concentrations near x(c), where the specific heat and susceptibility vary most rapidly with the doping concentration.     

Efficient synthesis of an adenosine A2a agonist: glycosylation of 2-haloadenines and an N2-alkyl-6-chloroguanine

A convergent synthesis of adenosine A2a agonist 1 in the form of its maleate salt 2 was achieved. The key step in this approach was the highly selective 9beta-glycosylation reaction between 2-haloadenines or an N(2)-alkyl-6-chloroguanine and a D-ribose derivative containing a 2-ethyltetrazolyl moiety. Glycosylations of other purine derivatives were also examined, and the methods developed provide efficient access to a variety of adenosine analogues such as 2-alkylaminoadenosines, an attractive class of compounds with antiinflammatory activity.     

The re-discovery of the fast Fourier transform algorithm

The discovery of the fast Fourier transform (FFT) algorithm and the subsequent development of algorithmic and numerical methods based on it have had an enormous impact on the ability of computers to process digital representations of signals, or functions. At first, the FFT was regarded as entirely new. However, attention and wide publicity led to an unfolding of its pre-electronic computer history going back to Gauss. The present paper describes the author's own involvement and experience with the FFT algorithm.The author is grateful for permission from the Association for Computing Machinery to allow the present paper to bear some similarity with the paper,How the FFT Gained Acceptance, ref. [28]     

Weekends as social distancing and their effect on the spread of influenza

Many published influenza models treat each simulation day as a weekday and do not distinguish weekend days. Consequently, the weekend effect on influenza transmission has not been fully explored. To assess whether distinguishing between weekday and weekend transmissions in simulation models of flu-like infectious disease models matters, this study uses an agent-based model of the Chicago, Illinois metropolitan area. Our study assesses whether including weekend effects is offset by increases in weekend contact patterns and if implementing 3-day weekends dampens disease transmission enough to warrant its use as a containment strategy. Results indicate that ignoring weekend behaviors without incorporating increases in community-based non-school contacts (i.e., compensatory behaviors) causes the peak case incidence day to occur 7 days earlier and can reduce the peak attack rate by as much as 60 %. These results are sensitive to the proportion of symptomatic cases that are assumed to remain at home until they recover. The 3-day weekend intervention has interesting possibilities, but the benefits may only be effective for mild epidemics. However, a 3-day weekend for schools would be less detrimental to the educational process than sustained permanent closing because student and teacher contact is maintained throughout the epidemic period. Also, a 4-day school and work week may be more easily accommodated by many types of schools and businesses. On the other hand, an additional day per week of school closure could result in substantial societal costs, with lost productivity and child care costs outweighing the savings of preventing influenza cases.     

Asymmetric synthesis of an N-acylpyrrolidine for inhibition of HCV polymerase

A practical asymmetric synthesis of a highly substituted N-acylpyrrolidine on multi-kilogram scale is described. The key step in the construction of the three stereocenters is a [3+2] cycloaddition of methyl acrylate and an imino ester prepared from l-leucine t-butyl ester hydrochloride and 2-thiazolecarboxaldehyde. The cycloaddition features novel asymmetric catalysis via a complex of silver acetate and a cinchona alkaloid, particularly hydroquinine, with complete diastereomeric control and up to 87% enantiomeric control. The alkaloid serves as a ligand as well as a base for the formation of the azomethine ylide or 1,3-dipole. Experiments have shown that the hydroxyl group of hydroquinine is a critical element for the enantioselectivities observed. The cycloaddition methodology is also applicable to methylvinyl ketone, providing access to either alpha- or beta-epimers of 4-acetylpyrrolidine depending on the reaction conditions utilized. The synthesis also highlights an efficient N-acylation, selective O- versus N-methylation, and a unique ester reduction with NaBH4-MeOH catalyzed by NaB(OAc)3H that not only achieves excellent chemoselectivity but also avoids formation of the undesired but thermodynamically favored epimer. The highly functionalized target is synthesized in seven linear steps from l-leucine t-butyl ester hydrochloride with all three isolated intermediates being highly crystalline.