Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Puzzles in astrophysics in the past and present

About 400 years have passed since the great discoveries by Galileo, Kepler, and Newton, but astronomy still remains an important source of discoveries in physics. They start with puzzles, with phenomena difficult to explain, and phenomena which in fact need new physics for explanation. Do such puzzles exist now? There are at least three candidates: absence of absorption of TeV gamma radiation in extragalactic space (violation of Lorentz invariance?), absence of GZK cutoff in the spectrum of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (new particle physics?), tremendous energy (up to 10⁵⁴ erg) released in gamma ray bursts on a time scale of a second (collapsing stars or sources of a new type?). Do these puzzles really exist? A critical review of these phenomena is given.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

Thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos

The thermal conductivity of crystalline chrysotile asbestos made up of hollow tubular Mg₃Si₂O₅(OH)₄ filaments is measured in the range 5–300 K. The paper discusses the possibility of using this material in studies of the thermal conductivity of thin filaments of metals and semiconductors incorporated into the channels of crystalline chrysotile asbestos tubes.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Necessary stationary condition for polarized radiation in scattering media

The stationary condition is derived taking into account the polarization of radiation in the general case of a scattering inhomogeneous medium in an arbitrary-shape emitter. The necessary stationary condition for an emitter in which radiation is emitted and extinguished simultaneously is complete extinction of the entire emitted radiation. Radiation extinction as a result of absorption by the medium and the emergence of radiation from the emitter is analyzed. The stationary condition is an analytical form of writing that extinction of radiation is a sure event whose probability is equal to unity. The passage of radiation through the medium is described on the basis of the linear transport theory with the help of the matrices of the Green functions. The stationary condition includes the characteristics of polarized radiation extinction of which is analyzed, the absorption coefficients of the medium, and the elements of the matrices of the Green functions, which are determined by optical and geometrical parameters of the emitter. The stationary condition obtained is used for deriving the relations between the components of scalar intensity observed in an arbitrary region of the emitter. These relations include, in addition to the absorption coefficients and the matrix elements of the Green functions, the powers of the primary radiation. Possible applications of the stationary condition and the relations between intensity components in computations and experimental studies are considered.     

Grain-boundary diffusion in nanocrystals with a time-dependent diffusion coefficient

A solution to the equation of grain-boundary diffusion is obtained under conditions where migration of the diffusant from the boundaries into the grains is absent and the diffusion coefficient decreases with time from an increased value to a value characteristic of equilibrium grain boundaries. The specific features of the grain-boundary diffusion in nanocrystals are qualitatively analyzed in terms of this solution.