时间序列的变化点检测和趋势分析

趋势分析和变化点检测是时间序列分析中常用的工具. 变化点检测是识别过程行为的自然或人为的突然的变化,而趋势可以定义为对逐渐偏离过去的规范的估计. 本文使用了Cox-Stuart方法和变化点算法分析时间序列数据趋势的存在,并以澳大利亚的近地表风速时间序列为例. 澳大利亚的近地表风速趋势是根据研究出的新开发的风速数据集,通过使用局部表面粗糙度信息,以及不同高度收集的混合观测数据构建. 10 m处的风的速度趋势通常会增加,而2 m处则趋于减小. 假设检验测试,变化点分析和人工检查记录表明有几个因素可能是导致差异的原因,例如伴随仪器变化的系统性偏差,随机数据错误(例如累积日错误)和数据采样问题. 均质化以及基于变化点检测的技术和多期趋势分析阐明了风速趋势不一致的根源.     

A variational method for the calculation of spin-rovibronic energy levels of triatomic molecules with three interacting electronic states

A general method is presented for the evaluation of the spin rovibronic energy levels of triatomic molecules with up to three interacting potential energy surfaces. The full theory is outlined in detail, both for singlet and for doublet electronic states and the method is then applied to the benchmark example of C₂H. High quality multireference configuration interaction calculations have been carried out to generate the 3-dimensional near-equilibrium adiabatic potential energy surfaces of the three lowest 1²A'(X²Σ⁺), 2²A'(A²Π), 1²A''(A²Π) electronic states of C₂H, and the pair of interacting states of A 0 symmetry have then been diabatized. Results are presented for J up to 7/2 and compared with gas-phase high resolution experimental results for energies up to 5600 cm¹.     

Assessing bias in total mercury results after removing a subsample from the bottle

U.S. EPA Method 1631 for total mercury (THg) analysis in water recommends that bromine monochloride (BrCl) be added to the original bottle in which the sample was collected, to draw into solution any Hg that may have adsorbed to the bottle walls. The method also allows for the removal of a subsample of water from the sample bottle for methylmercury (MeHg) analysis prior to adding BrCl. We have demonstrated that the removal of a subsample from the sample bottle prior to THg analysis can result in a positive concentration bias. The proposed mechanism for the bias is that ‘excess’ inorganic Hg, derived from the subsample that was removed from the bottle, adsorbs to the bottle walls and is then drawn into solution when BrCl is added. To test for this bias, we conducted an interlaboratory comparison study in which nine laboratories analysed water samples in fluorinated polyethylene (FLPE) bottles for THg after removing a subsample from the sample bottle, and analysed a replicate sample bottle from which no subsample was removed. We received seven complete data sets, or 63 unique sample pairs. The positive concentration bias between the bottles was significant when comparing all samples in aggregate (1.76 ± 0.53 ng/L after subsample removal, 1.57 ± 0.58 ng/L with no subsample removal, P < 0.05), however when comparing each of the three samples individually, the only significant bias was in the saline sample (Site UJ; 1.51 ± 0.31 ng/L after subsample removal, 1.32 ± 0.47 ng/L with no subsample removal, P < 0.05). Based on the findings presented here, we conclude that water chemistry, volume of water poured off, and the sample storage temperature explain some but not all of the observed bias, and we recommend collecting THg and MeHg samples in separate bottles whenever possible.     

Crystal structure and DFT calculations of Cp2NbH(SiIMe2)(SiFMe2): an asymmetric bis(silyl) niobocene hydride complex

An asymmetric bis(silyl) niobocene hydride complex, namely, bis(η⁵-cyclopentadienyl)(fluorodimethylsilyl)hydrido(iododimethylsilyl)niobium, [Nb(C₅H₅)₂(C₂H₆FSi)(C₂H₆ISi)H] or Cp₂NbH(SiIMe₂)(SiFMe₂), has been studied to determine the effect of the silyl ligand on the position of the hydride attached to the Nb atom. It has been shown that when a Group 17 atom is substituted onto one of the silyl ligands, there is a greater interaction between the hydride and this ligand, as demonstrated by a shorter Si…H distance. In the present work, we have investigated the effect when the silyl ligands are substituted by different Group 17 atoms. We present here the structure and DFT calculations of Cp₂NbH(SiIMe₂)(SiFMe₂), showing that the position of the hydride is located between the two silyl ligands. The results from our investigation show that the hydride is closer to the silyl ligand that is substituted by fluorine.     

Efficacy and Limitations of Chemically Diverse Small-Molecule Enzyme-Inhibitors against the Synergistic Coagulotoxic Activities of Bitis Viper Venoms

Snakebite remains a significant public health burden globally, disproportionately affecting low-income and impoverished regions of the world. Recently, researchers have begun to focus on the use of small-molecule inhibitors as potential candidates for the neutralisation of key snake venom toxins and as potential field therapies. Bitis vipers represent some of the most medically important as well as frequently encountered snake species in Africa, with a number of species possessing anticoagulant phospholipase A₂ (PLA₂) toxins that prevent the prothrombinase complex from inducing clot formation. Additionally, species within the genus are known to exert pseudo-procoagulant activity, whereby kallikrein enzymatic toxins cleave fibrinogen to form a weak fibrin clot that rapidly degrades, thereby depleting fibrinogen levels and contributing to the net anticoagulant state. Utilising well-validated coagulation assays measuring time until clot formation, this study addresses the in vitro efficacy of three small molecule enzyme inhibitors (marimastat, prinomastat and varespladib) in neutralising these aforementioned activities. The PLA₂ inhibitor varespladib showed the greatest efficacy for the neutralisation of PLA₂-driven anticoagulant venom activity, with the metalloproteinase inhibitors prinomastat and marimastat both showing low and highly variable degrees of cross-neutralisation with PLA₂ anticoagulant toxicity. However, none of the inhibitors showed efficacy in neutralising the pseudo-procoagulant venom activity exerted by the venom of B. caudalis. Our results highlight the complex nature of snake venoms, for which single-compound treatments will not be universally effective, but combinations might prove highly effective. Despite the limitations of these inhibitors with regards to in vitro kallikrein enzyme pseudo-procoagulant venom activity, our results further support the growing body of literature indicating the potential use of small molecule inhibitors to enhance first-aid treatment of snakebite envenoming, particularly in cases where hospital and thus antivenom treatment is either unavailable or far away.     

Determination of cocaine contamination on banknotes using tandem mass spectrometry and pattern recognition

Tandem mass spectrometry is used to monitor the contamination of banknotes by cocaine. By introducing a series of banknotes into an instrument a distribution of contamination can be obtained. The distribution of samples arising from defendants where the banknotes have been in close proximity to cocaine should differ from the distribution from the general background population. Peak picking and integration is used to produce a series of intensity readings for a batch of banknotes. By visually inspecting these distribution, and applying a variety of chemometric methods (principal components analysis, cluster analysis and class modelling via Mahalanobis distance) it is possible to discriminate effectively between the two classes of distribution (7157 background notes and 4826 case notes alleged to be from drug dealers). By calculating the Mahalonobis distance over 100 bootstrap iterations, background samples were correctly classified 96.48% of the time, while case samples were correctly classified 89.37% of the time.     

Patterned polyfluorene surfaces by functionalization of nanoimprinted polymeric features

A new procedure is described for surface grafting polymer brushes by step-growth polymerization from initiator-embedded polymeric thin films and micron- and nanometer-scale patterns. An imprint lithographic process, nanocontact molding, was used to prepare thin patterned cross-linked polyacrylate network films on silicon wafers that incorporated 4-bromostyrene in the networks. These networks present reactive 4-bromophenyl functionality at the surface that act as attachment sites for the subsequent Ni(0)- mediated step-growth condensation polymerization of 2,7-dibromo-9,9-dihexylfluorene The step-growth polymerization medium consisted of 2,7-dibromo-9,9-dihexylfluorene, Ni(0)-catalyst, and bipyridine in a toluene/dimethylformamide solvent mixture. The resulting growth of polydihexylfluorene brushes from the patterned surface was monitored by contact angle, optical spectrometry, surface profilometry and AFM. Brush growth was conducted from patterned features ranging from 100 microm to 100 nm in width and 50 nm in height. The optical and fluorescence behavior of the polyfluorene brushes was similar to that of thin polyfluorene films made by spin coating.     

Olefin oxygenation by the hydroperoxide adduct of a nonheme manganese(IV) complex: epoxidations by a metallo-peracid produces gentle selective oxidations

The reactive intermediates and mechanisms of oxygenation of olefins by manganese complexes were investigated by treating olefins with newly synthesized [MnIV(Me2EBC)(OH)2](PF6)2 in the presence and absence of peroxide and by studying its catalytic epoxidation reaction in normal aqueous solution and, individually, with isotopically labeled H218O, 18O2, and H218O2. The manganese oxo species is not the reactive intermediate for the oxygen transfer process mediated by this manganese complex. A novel manganese(IV) peroxide intermediate, MnIV(Me2EBC)(O)(OOH)+, was captured by mass spectrometry and is proposed as the intermediate that oxygenates olefins in this catalytic system.     

Rapid comparison of diacetylmorphine on banknotes by tandem mass spectrometry

A procedure is described for the determination of the distribution of the contamination of banknotes with controlled drugs using tandem mass spectrometry. The method is illustrated using diacetylmorphine, which is the major active component of heroin. A series of banknotes is introduced into the mass spectrometer and the intensities of two product ions (m/z 328 and 268) derived from the precursor protonated molecule (m/z 370) are recorded. A banknote is considered contaminated if it shows a significant peak for both product ions, and if the ratio of intensities of these two peaks falls within accepted limits. The distribution of diacetylmorphine on sterling banknotes taken from general circulation within the UK can be modelled by an arcsin (square root) transformation of the data or by a log transformation of the data with a higher proportion of contamination. The two models were found to be in close agreement, predicting an upper limit (at 99.9% confidence) of contamination on banknotes from general circulation between 9 and 10%. The percentage contamination in a case study was calculated and compared to the background distribution using the two models proposed. This comparison revealed that the contamination present in the case study was inconsistent with that present on banknotes in general circulation.     

First principles resonance widths for Li near an Al(001) surface: predictions of scattered ion neutralization probabilities

By combining a first-principles periodic density functional theory calculation of adsorbate resonance widths with a many-body dynamical theory of charge transfer, we assess charge-transfer rates for ions scattering off metal surfaces. This goes beyond previous approaches, which have been limited to modeling the surfaces with either static potentials or finite clusters. Here we consider Li(+) scattering from an Al(001) surface. We show how the Li 2s orbital hybridizes with metal valence bands, near the surface, increasing the width of the 2s energy level. This in turn affects the charge-transfer rates between the ion and the metal surface. Our predictions for Li(+)-Al(001) scattering yield the correct angular dependence of the fraction of neutral Li atoms formed when compared to experiment.