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In developing travel demand models it is generally assumed that the base-year data used in developing the parameters, as well as the forecasted data to be used as independent variables for the design year, are of acceptable quality. The purpose of this paper is to present the application of error propagation theory in assesing the predictive quality of one type of travel demand forecasting model (multinomial logit models) and to demonstrate how error considerations can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model. The general conclusions of this study are that: (1) it is indeed possible to quantify errors in dependent variables in logit models as a consequence of errors in independent variables; and (2) error consideration can be used as a tool for identifying the optimal model from a set of candidate models. Further research is recommended to develop better insights into the phenomenon of error propagation so that the consideration of errors can be a factor in decisions on model selection. 相似文献
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The diffraction of plane surface gravitational waves by the edge of an ice cover lying on the surface of an incompressible fluid of infinitely great depth is considered. The ice cover is simulated by a thin elastic plate. The wave reflection and transmission coefficients are determined when it interacts with the ice cover. A wave field is constructed in the fluid under the conditions that a periodic lumped force and a lumped moment act on the edge of the ice cover. It is shown that as the incident wavelength increases the reflection coefficient tends to zero and the transmission coefficient tends to unity. 相似文献
46.
meso-Tetra(n-hexyloxycarbonyl)porphyrin was found to be converted into porphine, the mother compound of porphyrins, in a 77% yield when heated in aqueous sulfuric acid at 180 °C over 30 min under an inert atmosphere. The observation demonstrates that the substituted porphyrin serves as a novel and useful precursor for porphine. 相似文献
47.
两种拔尿管方法对膀胱功能损伤的临床观察 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
为观察两种不同的拔尿管方法对膀胱功能损伤的差异,将80例患者随机分成两组,分别采用改良法(40例)和常规法(40例)拔除留置尿管,分析比较了两组患者排尿顺利率、逼尿肌功能恢复率及尿道刺激症、尿失禁、尿潴留。结果表明,两组患者拔管后上述指标与情况有显著性差异,P<0.05。提示改良组膀胱功能损伤明显低于对照组。改良的拔管方法是一种值得护理推广应用的好方法。 相似文献
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Solitary waves and their bifurcations of KdV like equation with higher order nonlinearity 总被引:3,自引:1,他引:2
We investigate the KdV like equation with higher order nonlinearity ut + a(1 +bun)unux + uxxx = 0with n ≥ 1, a, b ∈ R and α≠ 0. The bifurcations and explicit expressions of solitary wave solutions for theequation are discussed by using the bifurcation method and qualitative theory of dynamical systems. Thebifurcation diagrams, existence and number of the solitary waves are given. 相似文献
50.
Guofen Yu Yuanci Gao Shenggang Liu Wenxiang Wang Jin Wu 《International Journal of Infrared and Millimeter Waves》2002,23(8):1261-1269
Analysis of the field distributions in a single biological cell under electromagnetic wave is given. With Debye approximation, the dielectric relaxation of each part of the cell, including the extracellular and cellular media, the cell membrane and the nuclear membrane, was taken into account. Making use of some typical parameters for a cell, the voltage across nuclear and cytoplasma membranes under electromagnetic waves are calculated up to millimeter wave frequency range. The calculated result indicates that it is unlikely to generate electroporation by present available millimeter wave sources. 相似文献