Forecasting call frequency at a financial services call centre

A forecasting model is developed for the number of daily applications for loans at a financial services telephone call centre. The purpose of the forecasts and the associated prediction intervals is to provide effective staffing policies within the call centre. The model building process is constrained by the availability of only 2 years and 7 months of data. The distinctive feature of the data is that demand is driven in the main by advertising. The analysis given focuses on applications stimulated by press advertising. Unlike previous analyses of broadly similar data, where ARIMA models were used, a model with a dynamic level, multiplicative calendar effects and a multiplicative advertising response is developed and shown to be effective.     

Issues in Managing Information Technology

This paper describes three case studies which investigated issues relating to the implementation and management of advanced information technology. The benefits derived from information technology were found to vary from one organization to another. These studies provide further evidence to support earlier research findings that senior management has an important role to play in the effective exploitation of information technology, and that the investment approach taken by an organization has a significant effect on the development of computer-based information systems. The effectiveness of a system depends not only on applying the appropriate technology, but also on how successfully technical and behavioural issues are resolved.     

A warehouse-based design model for reverse logistics

In this paper, an MILP formulation is proposed for the design of a reverse logistics network based on a warehouse location–allocation model, which optimizes, simultaneously, the forward and reverse networks. A single product model with unlimited capacity is first defined. Subsequently, the model is extended to a multi-product capacitated recovery network model, where capacity limitations and a multi-product system can be considered. The proposed model is compared to published work in the field, where different model assumptions have been proposed. Two cases are described so as to gain a better insight into the model and allow a comparative analysis.     

On a stochastic nonlinear equation in one-dimensional viscoelasticity

In this paper we discuss an initial-boundary value problem for a stochastic nonlinear equation arising in one-dimensional viscoelasticity. We propose to use a new direct method to obtain a solution. This method is expected to be applicable to a broad class of nonlinear stochastic partial differential equations.

     

Quadratic data envelopment analysis

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) offers a piece-wise linear approximation of the production frontier. The approximation tends to be poor if the true frontier is not concave, eg in case of economies of scale or of specialisation. To improve the flexibility of the DEA frontier and to gain in empirical fit, we propose to extend DEA towards a more general piece-wise quadratic approximation, called Quadratic Data Envelopment Analysis (QDEA). We show that QDEA gives statistically consistent estimates for all production frontiers with bounded Hessian eigenvalues. Our Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that QDEA can substantially improve efficiency estimation in finite samples relative to standard DEA models.     

Effective dimensionality approach to the RKKY interaction in multilayer systems

We consider RKKY interaction in a quasi 2D system with nonparabolic dispersion. In our paper we calculate the RKKY range function assuming the in-layer confinement via effective dimensionality approach. We show, that indirect magnetic exchange in our system can be modelled by the effective spectral dimension which equals one.     

Sparse polynomials, redundant bases, gauss periods, and efficient exponentiation of primitive elements for small characteristic finite fields

Gauss periods give an exponentiation algorithm that is fast for many finite fields but slow for many other fields. The current paper presents a different method for construction of elements that yield a fast exponentiation algorithm for finite fields where the Gauss period method is slow or does not work. The basic idea is to use elements of low multiplicative order and search for primitive elements that are binomial or trinomial of these elements. Computational experiments indicate that such primitive elements exist, and it is shown that they can be exponentiated fast.     

Effects of annealing conditions on the electrical properties of Bi4-xNdxTi3O12 (x = 0.46) thin films processed at low temperature

Neodymium-substituted Bi₄Ti₃O₁₂ (BNdT) thin films were prepared by a chemical solution deposition technique on platinum- coated silicon substrates. All of the samples were annealed at the relatively low temperature of 600 °C by a rapid thermal annealing process in different atmospheres, such as O₂, air, and nitrogen, and vacuum. Irrespective of different annealing atmospheres, all of the BNdT thin films exhibit good ferroelectric properties, such as a saturated hysteresis loop, good fatigue endurance, and low leakage current density. A large remanent polarization (P_r) of ∼48 μC/cm² with an electric field of 240 kV/cm was observed from the BNdT thin film annealed in O₂ atmosphere. The BNdT thin films annealed in nitrogen and vacuum, at reduced oxygen partial pressures, exhibit smaller P_r than that annealed in oxygen. The difference of P_r of the BNdT thin films annealed in different atmospheres may originate from differences in the grain sizes and the number of oxygen vacancies. PACS 77.55.+f; 77.80.-e; 77.80.Fm; 81.15.-z