Choice of modelling technique for evaluating health care interventions

Economic evaluation, such as cost effectiveness analysis, provides a method for comparing healthcare interventions. These evaluations often use modelling techniques such as decision trees, Markov processes and discrete event simulations (DES). With the aid of examples from coronary heart disease, the use of these techniques in different health care situations is discussed. Guidelines for the choice of modelling technique are developed according to the characteristics of the health care intervention.The choice of modelling technique is shown to depend on the acceptance of the modelling technique, model ‘error’, model appropriateness, dimensionality and ease and speed of model development. Generally decision trees are suitable for acute interventions but they cannot model recursion and Markov models are suitable for simple chronic interventions. It is further recommended that population based models be used in order to provide health care outcomes for the likely cost, health benefits and cost effectiveness of the intervention. The population approach will complicate the construction of the model. DES will allow the modeller to construct more complex, dynamic and accurate systems but these may involve a corresponding increase in development time and expense. The modeller will need to make a judgement on the necessary complexity of the model in terms of interaction of individuals and model size and whether queuing for resources, resource constraints or the interactions between individuals are significant issues in the health care system.     

Convergence rates for Markov chain order estimates using EDC criterion

The Efficient Determination Criterion (EDC) generalizes the AIC and BIC criteria and provides a class of consistent estimators for the order of a Markov chain with finite state space. In this note, we derive rates of convergence for the EDC estimates. *Partially supported by CNPq, CAPES/PROCAD, FAPDF/PRONEX, FINATEC and FUNPE/UnB. **Partially supported by CAPES.     

Reintroduced solids increase inhibitor levels in a pretreated corn stover hydrolysate

Following detoxification of the liquid hydrolysate produced in a corn stover pretreatment process, inhibitor levels are seen to increase with the re-addition of solids for the ensuing hydrolysis and fermentation processes. The solids that were separated from the slurry before detoxification of the liquor contain approx 60% (w/w) moisture, and contamination occurs owing to the diffusion of inhibitors from the moisture entrained in the porous structure of the corn stover solids into the bulk fluid. This evidence suggests the need for additional separation and detoxification steps to purge residual inhibitors entrained in the moisture in the solids. An overliming process to remove furans from the hydrolysate failed to reduce total organic acids concentration, so acids were removed by treatment with an activated carbon powder. Smaller carbon doses proved more efficient in removing organic acids in terms of grams of acid removed per gram of carbon powder. Sugar adsorption by the activated carbon powder was minimal.     

Bimodal fission in binary and ternary spontaneous fission of 252Cf

The hot bimodal fission of ²⁵²Cf is reexamined with new high-statistics data. We constructed a γ-γ-γ coincidence cube for binary fission and LCP-gated γ-γ matrix for ternary fission. By identifying the secondary fission fragments from their γ-ray transitions, we measured the yields for various fission splits. The normal neutron yield distribution is found to be Gaussian for Xe-Ru. However, the binary fission split of Ba-Mo is found to exhibit a bimodal neutron distribution with the “hot mode” corresponding to ≈3.1% of the total yield. In α ternary fission, the first measurements of yields for specific fission splits are presented. The Te-α-Ru and Xe-α-Mo neutron yields fit well with a single mode, but the Ba-α-Zr split shows evidence for an enhanced hot mode with an intensity of ≈13.8% of the normal mode. The text was submitted by the authors in English.     

Sorption capacity of acetylacetonated humin-like compounds with respect to cations of heavy metals

A method of synthesis of acetylacetonated humin-like compounds was developed. The effect of modification on the sorption capacity of humin-like compounds with respect to heavy metals was studied.     

Texture and electronic activity of grain boundaries in Cu(In,Ga)Se2 thin films

The influence of different film textures on the electronic properties of polycrystalline Cu(In,Ga)Se₂ absorbers is studied by measuring the laterally resolved optoelectronic properties of differently textured Cu(In,Ga)Se₂ films with Kelvin probe force microscopy and cathodoluminescence. The grain boundaries in (112)- and (220/204)-textured films behave differently. The work-function profile measured with the Kelvin probe across a grain boundary in (112)-textured films shows a dip indicating positive charges at the grain boundaries. In panchromatic cathodoluminescence mappings in a transmission electron microscope, such grain boundaries appear dark, i.e. the strongly reduced luminescence indicates that the grain boundaries represent strong non-radiative recombination centers. In contrast, grain boundaries in (220/204)-textured films give rise to a dip or a step in the work function indicating slightly negative charge or neutrality. Cathodoluminescence is reduced at such grain boundaries, but less dramatically than in the (112)-textured case. However, when Na is present in the (220/204)-textured films, the grain boundaries are almost invisible in cathodoluminescence mappings. This strong passivating action of Na occurs only in the (220/204)-textured films, due to a particular grain-boundary population. In (112)-textured films and films without pronounced texture, this passivation effect is much less noticeable. PACS 73.50.Gr; 73.61.Ga; 78.60.Hk; 87.64.Dt     

Effects of trapped electrons on the line shape in emission Mössbauer spectra

To explain line broadening in emission Mössbauer spectra as compared to the corresponding absorber measurements, the model of trapped electrons has been proposed. Auger electrons (emitted, e.g. after electron capture by ⁵⁷Co or after the converted isomeric transition of ^119mSn), as well as secondary electrons, may be trapped in the proximity to the nucleogenic ion. Electrons captured by lattice traps at different distances from the daughter ion induce an asymmetric distribution of quadrupole splitting in the resulting emission spectra, as shown in a few examples. This model is supported by estimates of quadrupole splitting values which may be caused by such trapped electrons located at specified distances from the nucleogenic atom.