Mother-to-child transmission of HIV: a simulation-based approach for the evaluation of intervention strategies

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV is the most significant source of HIV infection in children below the age of 15 years. In 2000 alone, about 600 000 new infections occurred, the vast majority from mothers living in developing countries who were not aware of their HIV-positive status. To date, at least 4.3 million children have died from AIDS. In this paper, we discuss the development of an operational model that can be used to evaluate intervention options for the prevention of MTCT of HIV. The problem was approached by defining suitable pregnancy risk groups, prevention options and the required model outputs to evaluate different intervention strategies. The method chosen to approach the problem was a discrete-event, three-phase simulation, built in Visual Basic, with a stochastic semi-Markov structure. The developed model takes individual pregnant women through each stage of their pregnancy, labour and birth. Different intervention strategies may be modelled at any time, including short-course antiretroviral drugs and cessation of breastfeeding. The model is demonstrated with data from Botswana, which has one of the highest HIV-infection rates in the world.     

Stability of Markovian structure observed in high frequency foreign exchange data

Contrary to the common sense in economics and financial engineering, price fluctuations at very fine level of motion exhibit various evidences against the efficient market hypothesis. We attempt to investigate this issue by studying extensive amount of foreign currency exchange data for over five years at the finest level of resolution. We specifically focus on the proposed stability in binomial conditional probabilities originally found in much smaller examples of financial time series. In order to handle very large data, we have written an efficient program in C that automatically generates those conditional probabilities. It is found that the stability is maintained for extremely large time duration that covers almost the entire period. Based on the length of conditions for which the conditional probabilities are distinguishable each other, we identify the length of memory being less than 3 movements.     

Homothetic self-similar solutions of three-dimensional Brans-Dicke gravity

All homothetic self-similar solutions of the Brans-Dicke scalar field in three-dimensional spacetime with circular symmetry are found in closed form.     

A Quantum-Like Description of the Planetary Systems

The Titius–Bode law for planetary distances is reviewed. A model describing the basic features of this rule in the “quantum-like” language of a wave equation is proposed. Some considerations about the ’t Hooft idea on the quantum behavior of deterministic systems with dissipation are discussed.     

On the Metrical Theory of Continued Fraction Mixing Fibred Systems and Its Application to Jacobi-Perron Algorithm

 We study the metrical theory of fibred systems, in particular, in the case of continued fraction mixing systems. We get the limit distribution of the largest value of a continued fraction mixing stationary stochastic process with infinite expectation and some related results. These are analogous to J. Galambos, W. Philipp, and H. G. Diamond–J. D. Vaaler theorems for the regular continued fractions. As an application, we see that these theorems hold for Jacobi-Perron algorithm. Received September 30, 2001; in revised form January 8, 2002     

Atomistic phenomena in dense fluid shock waves

The shock structure problem is one of the classical problems of fluid mechanics and at least for non-reacting dilute gases it has been considered essentially solved. Here we present a few recent findings, to show that this is not the case. There are still new physical effects to be discovered provided that the numerical technique is general enough to not rule them out a priori. While the results have been obtained for dense fluids, some of the effects might also be observable for shocks in dilute gases.     

Approximation of transient temperatures in complex geometries using fractional derivatives

It is shown that time-dependent temperatures in a transient, conductive system can be approximately modeled by a fractional-order differential equation, the order of which depends on the Biot number. This approximation is particularly suitable for complex shapes for which a first-principles approach is too difficult or computationally time-consuming. Analytical solutions of these equations can be written in terms of the Mittag-Leffler function. The approximation is especially useful if a suitable fractional-order controller is to be designed for the system.     

Monitoring photopolymerization reactions with optical pyrometry

This article describes the development of optical pyrometry (OP) as a new analytical technique for the continuous monitoring of the progress of both free‐radical and cationic photopolymerizations. The method is rapid, reproducible, and very easy to implement. A temperature profile of a photopolymerization can be obtained. Preliminary studies have shown that the temperatures of some polymerizing monomers can easily reach temperatures in excess of 250 °C. The effects of the mass and reactivity of the monomer, light intensity, structures, and concentrations of the photoinitiators and monomers as well as the presence or absence of oxygen on various free‐radical and cationic photopolymerizations were examined with this method. Coupling of real‐time infrared spectroscopy with OP provides a convenient method for simultaneously monitoring both the chemical conversion and the temperature of a photopolymerization. This combined technique affords new insights into the effects of temperature‐induced autoacceleration on the course of photopolymerizations. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 41: 579–596, 2003     

Damage and fracture evaluation of granular composite materials by digital image correlation method

This paper presents the applications of digital image correlation technique to the mesoscopic damage and fracture study of some granular based composite materials including steelfiber reinforced concrete, sandstone and crystal-polymer composite. The deformation fields of the composite materials resulted from stress localization were obtained by the correlation computation of the surface images with loading steps and thus the related damage prediction and fracture parameters were evaluated. The correlation searching could be performed either directly based on the gray levels of the digital images or from the wavelet transform (WT) coefficients of the transform spectrum. The latter was developed by the authors and showed higher resolution and sensitivity to the singularity detection. Because the displacement components came from the rough surfaces of the composite materials without any coats of gratings or fringes of optical interferometry, both surface profiles and the deformation fields of the composites were visualized which was helpful to compare each other to analyze the damage of those heterogeneous materials. The project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10125211 and 10072002), the Scientific Committee of Yunnan Province for the Program of Steel Fiber Reinforced Concrete, and the Institute of Chemical Materials, CAEP at Mianyang