Experiences in Expert Systems

This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area.     

Puzzles in astrophysics in the past and present

About 400 years have passed since the great discoveries by Galileo, Kepler, and Newton, but astronomy still remains an important source of discoveries in physics. They start with puzzles, with phenomena difficult to explain, and phenomena which in fact need new physics for explanation. Do such puzzles exist now? There are at least three candidates: absence of absorption of TeV gamma radiation in extragalactic space (violation of Lorentz invariance?), absence of GZK cutoff in the spectrum of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays (new particle physics?), tremendous energy (up to 10⁵⁴ erg) released in gamma ray bursts on a time scale of a second (collapsing stars or sources of a new type?). Do these puzzles really exist? A critical review of these phenomena is given.     

When should you sack a football manager? Results from a simple model applied to the English Premiership

What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points.     

On Bayes and unbiased estimators of loss

We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In 3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988, On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly, that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss. Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524.     

Highlights and Prospects of Hyperspherical Approach in Few-Body Quantum-Mechanical Systems

The binding energy of excitonium negative ion for ground ¹S-state in bulk conductors: Ge, Si, CdSe and for green and yellow lines of Cu₂O in hyperspherical coordinate method are found. Angular and radial correlations between electrons are taken into account by the channel functions, which are the eigen-functions of operator on the surface of sphere in six-dimensional sphere. The calculation of energies have been done using the adiabatic and Born-Oppenheimer approximations. In Born-Oppenheimer approximation is enough to give a binding energy with only 1.2% error, in adiabatic approximation this error drops to 0.7 %.     

Beryllium (boron) clustering quest in relativistic multifragmentation (BECQUEREL Project)

A physical program of irradiation of emulsions in beams of relativistic nuclei named the BECQUEREL Project is reviewed. It is destined to study in detail the processes of relativistic fragmentation of light radioactive and stable nuclei. The expected results would make it possible to answer some topical questions concerning the cluster structure of light nuclei. Owing to the best spatial resolution, the nuclear emulsions would enable one to obtain unique and evident results. The most important irradiations will be performed in the secondary beams of He, Be, B, C, and N radioactive nuclei formed on the basis of JINR Nuclotron beams of stable nuclei. We present results on the charged state topology of relativistic fragmentation of the ¹⁰B nucleus at low energy-momentum transfers as the first step of the research.     

Universal Models For Real Submanifolds

In previous papers by the present author, a machinery for calculating automorphisms, constructing invariants, and classifying real submanifolds of a complex manifold was developed. The main step in this machinery is the construction of a “nice” model surface. The nice model surface can be treated as an analog of the osculating paraboloid in classical differential geometry. Model surfaces suggested earlier possess a complete list of the desired properties only if some upper estimate for the codimension of the submanifold is satisfied. If this estimate fails, then the surfaces lose the universality property (that is, the ability to touch any germ in an appropriate way), which restricts their applicability. In the present paper, we get rid of this restriction: for an arbitrary type (n,K) (where n is the dimension of the complex tangent plane, and K is the real codimension), we construct a nice model surface. In particular, we solve the problem of constructing a nondegenerate germ of a real analytic submanifold of a complex manifold of arbitrary given type (n,K) with the richest possible group of holomorphic automorphisms in the given class.