Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

Information acquisition and disclosure by firms in the presence of additional available information

In this paper we analyze a model which addresses two stylized facts which have received little attention in disclosure theory. (a) Information that is acquired for internal decision-making can subsequently be disclosed to outside investors who can use it to update their assessment of the firm’s prospects. Thus, the decision to gather information in the first place does not only depend on the decision value of information. (b) Information disclosed by firms is only one element of the information environment upon which investors can draw. This setting creates an interaction between firms’ information gathering and disclosure decisions as well as alternative sources of information. We identify an equilibrium structure which we call a Countersignaling equilibrium in which only average firms acquire information whereas good and bad firms do not. We show that while several equilibria can coexist, a Countersignaling equilibrium is often the economically most efficient one.     

Characterisation of ancient Roman wall-painting fragments using non-destructive IBA and MA-XRF techniques

Scientific investigation is very important in studies addressing issues of archaeological and historical objects. Ion beam analysis (IBA) and macro X-ray fluorescence (MA-XRF) spectroscopy are remarkable tools to obtain information about elemental composition and imaging of historical artefacts with a non-invasive character. These investigation techniques were employed in the framework of a project aimed at supporting the characterization of materials and techniques related with the Roman wall painting. The archaeological excavations at Villa della Piscina in Rome have revealed a luxury building with a large pool (about 50 m long) and thermal baths and numerous fragments of plaster, coming from intentional demolitions referable to two distinct architectural contexts of the Villa during the imperial age, have been found. This work deals with studying the interesting wall pictorial apparatus of great cultural value of the heritage inherited from the Roman age in the area of the ancient city of Rome. The colour palette of the pigments investigated, in particular, by MA-XRF and particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) and has revealed Fe, Cu, Pb, Si and Hg as main elements. Traces of other constituents uncover the choice of the different colours chosen by the artists who had embellished the rooms of the Villa.     

Opinion Polarization in Human Communities Can Emerge as a Natural Consequence of Beliefs Being Interrelated

The emergence of opinion polarization within human communities—the phenomenon that individuals within a society tend to develop conflicting attitudes related to the greatest diversity of topics—has been a focus of interest for decades, both from theoretical and modelling points of view. Regarding modelling attempts, an entire scientific field—opinion dynamics—has emerged in order to study this and related phenomena. Within this framework, agents’ opinions are usually represented by a scalar value which undergoes modification due to interaction with other agents. Under certain conditions, these models are able to reproduce polarization—a state increasingly familiar to our everyday experience. In the present paper, an alternative explanation is suggested along with its corresponding model. More specifically, we demonstrate that by incorporating the following two well-known human characteristics into the representation of agents: (1) in the human brain beliefs are interconnected, and (2) people strive to maintain a coherent belief system; polarization immediately occurs under exposure to news and information. Furthermore, the model accounts for the proliferation of fake news, and shows how opinion polarization is related to various cognitive biases.     

Antioxidant behaviour of 2′‐hydroxy‐chalcones: a study of their electrochemical properties

The electrochemical behaviour of 13 chalcone analogues was systematically studied by means of cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry at a glassy carbon (GC), gold and platinum working electrodes using two different supporting electrolyte/solvent combinations. It was found that chalcone analogues can be easily oxidized at both GC and gold working electrodes, but not at a platinum electrode. Principal component analysis was further employed to reveal similarities/dissimilarities between oxidation potentials, chronoamperometric signals and ability of the compounds to scavenge the reactive oxygen species H₂O₂. The study reveals the inverse proportional relationship between the scavenging ability of H₂O₂, expressed as IC₅₀, and chronoamperometric signal at 800 mV using gold as working electrode. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Finding the Minimal Root of an Equation with the Multiextremal and Nondifferentiable Left-Hand Part

A problem very often arising in applications is presented: finding the minimal root of an equation with the objective function being multiextremal and nondifferentiable. Applications from the field of electronic measurements are given. Three methods based on global optimization ideas are introduced for solving this problem. The first one uses an a priori estimate of the global Lipschitz constant. The second method adaptively estimates the global Lipschitz constant. The third algorithm adaptively estimates local Lipschitz constants during the search. All the methods either find the minimal root or determine the global minimizers (in the case when the equation under consideration has no roots). Sufficient convergence conditions of the new methods to the desired solution are established. Numerical results including wide experiments with test functions, stability study, and a real-life applied problem are also presented.     

Volume contents

Volume Contents

Volume contents     

On polyharmonic maps into spheres in the critical dimension

We prove that every polyharmonic map u∈Wm,2(Bn,SN−1)$u\in W^{m,2}({\mathbb{B}}^n,{\mathbb{S}}^{N-1})$ is smooth in the critical dimension n=2m$n=2m$. Moreover, in every dimension n  , a weak limit u∈Wm,2(Bn,SN−1)$u\in W^{m,2}({\mathbb{B}}^n,{\mathbb{S}}^{N-1})$ of a sequence of polyharmonic maps uj∈Wm,2(Bn,SN−1)$u_j\in W^{m,2}({\mathbb{B}}^n,{\mathbb{S}}^{N-1})$ is also polyharmonic.     

Global periodicity and complete integrability of discrete dynamical systems

Consider the discrete dynamical system generated by a map F. It is said that it is globally periodic if there exists a natural number p such that F ^p (x)=x for all x in the phase space. On the other hand, it is called completely integrable if it has as many functionally independent first integrals as the dimension of the phase space. In this paper, we relate both concepts. We also give a large list of globally periodic dynamical systems together with a complete set of their first integrals, emphasizing the ones coming from difference equations.     

Heuristic solution approaches for the maximum minsum dispersion problem

The Maximum Minsum Dispersion Problem (Max-Minsum DP) is a strongly NP-Hard problem that belongs to the family of equitable dispersion problems. When dealing with dispersion, the operations research literature has focused on optimizing efficiency-based objectives while neglecting, for the most part, measures of equity. The most common efficiency-based functions are the sum of the inter-element distances or the minimum inter-element distance. Equitable dispersion problems, on the other hand, attempt to address the balance between efficiency and equity when selecting a subset of elements from a larger set. The objective of the Max-Minsum DP is to maximize the minimum aggregate dispersion among the chosen elements. We develop tabu search and GRASP solution procedures for this problem and compare them against the best in the literature. We also apply LocalSolver, a commercially available black-box optimizer, to compare our results. Our computational experiments show that we are able to establish new benchmarks in the solution of the Max-Minsum DP.