Multivariate dynamic modeling for Bayesian forecasting of business revenue

Forecasting enterprise-wide revenue is critical to many companies and presents several challenges and opportunities for significant business impact. This case study is based on model developments to address these challenges for forecasting in a large-scale retail company. Focused on multivariate revenue forecasting across collections of supermarkets and product categories, hierarchical dynamic models are natural: these are able to couple revenue streams in an integrated forecasting model, while allowing conditional decoupling to enable relevant and sensitive analysis together with scalable computation. Structured models exploit multi-scale modeling to cascade information on price and promotion activities as predictors relevant across categories and groups of stores. With a context-relevant focus on forecasting revenue 12 weeks ahead, the study highlights product categories that benefit from multi-scale information, defines insights into when, how, and why multivariate models improve forecast accuracy, and shows how cross-category dependencies can relate to promotion decisions in one category impacting others. Bayesian modeling developments underlying the case study are accessible in custom code for interested readers.     

Information acquisition and disclosure by firms in the presence of additional available information

In this paper we analyze a model which addresses two stylized facts which have received little attention in disclosure theory. (a) Information that is acquired for internal decision-making can subsequently be disclosed to outside investors who can use it to update their assessment of the firm’s prospects. Thus, the decision to gather information in the first place does not only depend on the decision value of information. (b) Information disclosed by firms is only one element of the information environment upon which investors can draw. This setting creates an interaction between firms’ information gathering and disclosure decisions as well as alternative sources of information. We identify an equilibrium structure which we call a Countersignaling equilibrium in which only average firms acquire information whereas good and bad firms do not. We show that while several equilibria can coexist, a Countersignaling equilibrium is often the economically most efficient one.     

Characterisation of ancient Roman wall-painting fragments using non-destructive IBA and MA-XRF techniques

Scientific investigation is very important in studies addressing issues of archaeological and historical objects. Ion beam analysis (IBA) and macro X-ray fluorescence (MA-XRF) spectroscopy are remarkable tools to obtain information about elemental composition and imaging of historical artefacts with a non-invasive character. These investigation techniques were employed in the framework of a project aimed at supporting the characterization of materials and techniques related with the Roman wall painting. The archaeological excavations at Villa della Piscina in Rome have revealed a luxury building with a large pool (about 50 m long) and thermal baths and numerous fragments of plaster, coming from intentional demolitions referable to two distinct architectural contexts of the Villa during the imperial age, have been found. This work deals with studying the interesting wall pictorial apparatus of great cultural value of the heritage inherited from the Roman age in the area of the ancient city of Rome. The colour palette of the pigments investigated, in particular, by MA-XRF and particle-induced X-ray emission (PIXE) and has revealed Fe, Cu, Pb, Si and Hg as main elements. Traces of other constituents uncover the choice of the different colours chosen by the artists who had embellished the rooms of the Villa.     

Colloidal Analysis of Particles Extracted from Microalloyed Steels

Different colloidal particle characterization methods are examined for their suitability to determine the particle size distribution of particles extracted from steels. Microalloyed steels are dissolved to extract niobium and titanium carbonitride particles that are important for the mechanical properties of these steels. Such particles have sizes ranging from several nanometers to hundreds of nanometers depending on the precipitation stage during the thermomechanically controlled rolling process. The size distribution of the particles is analyzed by dynamic light scattering (DLS), analytical ultracentrifugation (AUC), and hollow fiber flow field-flow fractionation (HF5) and compared to data obtained for reference particles as well as data from electron microscopy, the standard sizing technique used in metallurgy today. AUC and HF5 provide high-quality size distributions, average over large particle numbers that enables statistical analysis, and yield useful insights for alloy design; however, DLS fails due to a lack of resolution. Important aspects in the conversion and comparison of size distributions obtained for broadly distributed particle systems with different measurement principles and the role of surfactants used in sample preparation are discussed.     

Opinion Polarization in Human Communities Can Emerge as a Natural Consequence of Beliefs Being Interrelated

The emergence of opinion polarization within human communities—the phenomenon that individuals within a society tend to develop conflicting attitudes related to the greatest diversity of topics—has been a focus of interest for decades, both from theoretical and modelling points of view. Regarding modelling attempts, an entire scientific field—opinion dynamics—has emerged in order to study this and related phenomena. Within this framework, agents’ opinions are usually represented by a scalar value which undergoes modification due to interaction with other agents. Under certain conditions, these models are able to reproduce polarization—a state increasingly familiar to our everyday experience. In the present paper, an alternative explanation is suggested along with its corresponding model. More specifically, we demonstrate that by incorporating the following two well-known human characteristics into the representation of agents: (1) in the human brain beliefs are interconnected, and (2) people strive to maintain a coherent belief system; polarization immediately occurs under exposure to news and information. Furthermore, the model accounts for the proliferation of fake news, and shows how opinion polarization is related to various cognitive biases.     

Antioxidant behaviour of 2′‐hydroxy‐chalcones: a study of their electrochemical properties

The electrochemical behaviour of 13 chalcone analogues was systematically studied by means of cyclic voltammetry and chronoamperometry at a glassy carbon (GC), gold and platinum working electrodes using two different supporting electrolyte/solvent combinations. It was found that chalcone analogues can be easily oxidized at both GC and gold working electrodes, but not at a platinum electrode. Principal component analysis was further employed to reveal similarities/dissimilarities between oxidation potentials, chronoamperometric signals and ability of the compounds to scavenge the reactive oxygen species H₂O₂. The study reveals the inverse proportional relationship between the scavenging ability of H₂O₂, expressed as IC₅₀, and chronoamperometric signal at 800 mV using gold as working electrode. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

First-order interaction energies and the basis set truncation effects

The basis set superposition error is investigated in terms of the first-order symmetry adapted perturbation theory (SAPT). The analysis of the first-order SAPT contribution to the interaction energy reveals the origin of the basis set truncation effects at both the one-electron and many-electron levels of approximation. This helps to formulate the necessary conditions which ensure that the calculated interaction energy is free of the basis set superposition contributions. At the level of the one-electron approximation used for both the interacting system and its subsystems a part of the basis set truncation errors can be eliminated by using what is called the dimer-centred basis set. In order to remove all contributions which arise from the symmetrization of the product of wave functions of the subsystems one needs to redefine their reference states. This means that for the interacting system represented by a single HF determinant, the subsystems must be considered at the level of full CI in the orbital space spanned by all occupied orbitals used to describe the dimer. Then, the interaction energy becomes completely free of the basis set superposition contributions. These general considerations are exemplified by calculations of the first-order SAPT interaction energy in helium and H₂ dimers at different levels of approximation for monomers. Also the convergence of the calculated energies to the complete basis set limit is investigated.     

Growth and comparison of physicochemical properties of pure,Ca and Sr doped NH4Sb3F10 single crystals for electro optic applications

Single crystals of pure, Ca²⁺ and Sr²⁺ doped NH₄Sb₃F₁₀ are grown by slow evaporation technique. The effect of dopants on the growth and physicochemical properties also have been investigated and reported for the first time. The grown crystals are characterized with the aid of single crystal X-ray diffractometry to confirm the crystal structure. EDAX studies are done to confirm the presence of dopants in the crystal lattice. The vibrational frequencies of various group ligands in the crystals have been derived from the Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrum. From the optical absorption spectrum the band gap energy was calculated and it was found to be 5.76, 6.29 and 6.35 eV for pure, Ca²⁺ and Sr²⁺ doped NH₄Sb₃F₁₀ crystals respectively. Thermal stability of the sample has been analysed using TG-DTA analysis. The activation energy of pure, Ca²⁺ and Sr²⁺ doped NH₄Sb₃F₁₀ crystals were calculated from the dc conductivity measurements and it is found to be 0.2728, 0.2816 and 0.3622 eV Experimental results shows improved physicochemical properties when the dopant is added to the pure material.     

Finding the Minimal Root of an Equation with the Multiextremal and Nondifferentiable Left-Hand Part

A problem very often arising in applications is presented: finding the minimal root of an equation with the objective function being multiextremal and nondifferentiable. Applications from the field of electronic measurements are given. Three methods based on global optimization ideas are introduced for solving this problem. The first one uses an a priori estimate of the global Lipschitz constant. The second method adaptively estimates the global Lipschitz constant. The third algorithm adaptively estimates local Lipschitz constants during the search. All the methods either find the minimal root or determine the global minimizers (in the case when the equation under consideration has no roots). Sufficient convergence conditions of the new methods to the desired solution are established. Numerical results including wide experiments with test functions, stability study, and a real-life applied problem are also presented.