From evidence-based policy making to policy analytics

This paper aims at addressing the problem of what characterises decision-aiding for public policy making problem situations. Under such a perspective it analyses concepts like “public policy”, “deliberation”, “legitimation”, “accountability” and shows the need to expand the concept of rationality which is expected to support the acceptability of a public policy. We then analyse the more recent attempt to construct a rational support for policy making, the “evidence-based policy making” approach. Despite the innovation introduced with this approach, we show that it basically fails to address the deep reasons why supporting the design, implementation and assessment of public policies is such a hard problem. We finally show that we need to move one step ahead, specialising decision-aiding to meet the policy cycle requirements: a need for policy analytics.     

Hopf monads

We introduce and study Hopf monads on autonomous categories (i.e., monoidal categories with duals). Hopf monads generalize Hopf algebras to a non-braided (and non-linear) setting. In particular, any monoidal adjunction between autonomous categories gives rise to a Hopf monad. We extend many fundamental results of the theory of Hopf algebras (such as the decomposition of Hopf modules, the existence of integrals, Maschke's criterium of semisimplicity, etc.) to Hopf monads. We also introduce and study quasitriangular and ribbon Hopf monads (again defined in a non-braided setting).     

Iterated Stochastic Processes: Simulation and Relationship with High Order Partial Differential Equations

In this paper, we consider the composition of two independent processes: one process corresponds to position and the other one to time. Such processes will be called iterated processes. We first propose an algorithm based on the Euler scheme to simulate the trajectories of the corresponding iterated processes on a fixed time interval. This algorithm is natural and can be implemented easily. We show that it converges almost surely, uniformly in time, with a rate of convergence of order 1/4 and propose an estimation of the error. We then extend the well known Feynman-Kac formula which gives a probabilistic representation of partial differential equations (PDEs), to its higher order version using iterated processes. In particular we consider general position processes which are not necessarily Markovian or are indexed by the real line but real valued. We also weaken some assumptions from previous works. We show that intertwining diffusions are related to transformations of high order PDEs. Combining our numerical scheme with the Feynman-Kac formula, we simulate functionals of the trajectories and solutions to fourth order PDEs that are naturally associated to a general class of iterated processes.     

A Geometric Framework for Stochastic Shape Analysis

We introduce a stochastic model of diffeomorphisms, whose action on a variety of data types descends to stochastic evolution of shapes, images and landmarks. The stochasticity is introduced in the vector field which transports the data in the large deformation diffeomorphic metric mapping framework for shape analysis and image registration. The stochasticity thereby models errors or uncertainties of the flow in following the prescribed deformation velocity. The approach is illustrated in the example of finite-dimensional landmark manifolds, whose stochastic evolution is studied both via the Fokker–Planck equation and by numerical simulations. We derive two approaches for inferring parameters of the stochastic model from landmark configurations observed at discrete time points. The first of the two approaches matches moments of the Fokker–Planck equation to sample moments of the data, while the second approach employs an expectation-maximization based algorithm using a Monte Carlo bridge sampling scheme to optimise the data likelihood. We derive and numerically test the ability of the two approaches to infer the spatial correlation length of the underlying noise.

     

A new proof of partial regularity of solutions to Navier-Stokes equations

In this paper we give a new proof of the partial regularity of solutions to the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation in dimension 3 first proved by Caffarelli, Kohn and Nirenberg. The proof relies on a method introduced by De Giorgi for elliptic equations. This work was supported in part by NSF Grant DMS-0607953.     

The unsatisfiability threshold revisited

The problem of determining the unsatisfiability threshold for random 3-SAT formulas consists in determining the clause to variable ratio that marks the experimentally observed abrupt change from almost surely satisfiable formulas to almost surely unsatisfiable. Up to now, there have been rigorously established increasingly better lower and upper bounds to the actual threshold value. In this paper, we consider the problem of bounding the threshold value from above using methods that, we believe, are of interest on their own right. More specifically, we show how the method of local maximum satisfying truth assignments can be combined with results for the occupancy problem in schemes of random allocation of balls into bins in order to achieve an upper bound for the unsatisfiability threshold less than 4.571. In order to obtain this value, we establish a bound on the q-binomial coefficients (a generalization of the binomial coefficients). No such bound was previously known, despite the extensive literature on q-binomial coefficients. Finally, to prove our result we had to establish certain relations among the conditional probabilities of an event in various probabilistic models for random formulas. It turned out that these relations were considerably harder to prove than the corresponding ones for unconditional probabilities, which were previously known.     

Hopf group-coalgebras

We study algebraic properties of Hopf group-coalgebras, recently introduced by Turaev. We show the existence of integrals and traces for such coalgebras, and we generalize the main properties of quasitriangular and ribbon Hopf algebras to the setting of Hopf group-coalgebras.