Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

Forecasting electricity prices in presentday competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naïve and other techniques.     

Competing kinetic pathways in the bromine addition to allylic ethers in 1,2‐dichloroethane: Opposite temperature effects

The kinetics of the electrophilic bromination of three allylic ethers in a nonprotic solvent, 1,2‐dichloroethane, has been investigated. Two of them followed a prevalent second‐order pathway, while the third one exhibited a classical, clean third order. The second‐order pathway in the first two olefins is attributed to electrophilic assistance of the ethereal oxygen to the attacking bromine molecule. In the molecular bromination of 2,4‐cis‐dimethyl‐8‐oxabicyclo[3.2.1]‐6‐octen‐3‐cis‐ol, opposite temperature dependences were found for the two different kinetic pathways. An exoergonic process for the second‐order reaction was explained by the lesser stability of the bromiranium–bromide ionic intermediate, compared to the bromiranium–tribromide in the third‐order profile. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. 39: 197–203, 2007     

On deformations of Hamiltonian actions

In this paper we generalize to coisotropic actions of compact Lie groups a theorem of Guillemin on deformations of Hamiltonian structures on compact symplectic manifolds. We show how one can reconstruct from the moment polytope the symplectic form on the manifold. Received: 21 March 2006     

Commutative idempotent residuated lattices

We investigate the variety of residuated lattices with a commutative and idempotent monoid reduct.     

On potentially <Emphasis Type="Italic">H</Emphasis>-graphic sequences

For given a graph H, a graphic sequence π = (d ₁, d ₂,..., d _n) is said to be potentially H-graphic if there is a realization of π containing H as a subgraph. In this paper, we characterize the potentially (K ₅ − e)-positive graphic sequences and give two simple necessary and sufficient conditions for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₅-graphic, where K _r is a complete graph on r vertices and K _r-e is a graph obtained from K _r by deleting one edge. Moreover, we also give a simple necessary and sufficient condition for a positive graphic sequence π to be potentially K ₆-graphic. Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10401010).     

Sudoku’s french ancestors

This column is a place for those bits of contagious mathematics that travel from person to person in the community, because they are so elegant, suprising, or appealing that one has an urge to pass them on. Contributions are most welcome.     

Multiple Coverings of the Plane with Triangles

We prove that any 43-fold covering of the plane with translates of a triangle can be decomposed into two coverings.