Modelling locational price spreads in competitive electricity markets; applications for transmission rights valuation and replication

The restructuring of the electric utilities industry has forcedindustry participants to rethink their approach to a numberof decision processes. To manage risk and plan investment ingeneration assets, as well as to examine the efficient expansionof the current transmission grid, one needs to have a clearunderstanding of the interaction between the grid propertiesand the behaviour of the regional power markets. In this paperwe discuss a fundamental modelling approach which extracts thestochastic properties of electricity prices by modelling theimpact of physical and economic drivers affecting the production,delivery, and consumption of electricity. If the fundamentalinputs are directly observable, we can use historical data tocalibrate the model parameters. In the case of electricity,this simple and abundant set of training data can make a crucialdifference. We present the bid-based stochastic model (BSM) and look intoits application to valuing of financial derivatives, especiallyoptions based on the locational spread in electricity pricebetween two markets. The advantage of the bid-based model isthat one is able to link the capacity of the transmission line,in megawatts, directly to the correlation between electricityprices at the end nodes. This leads us to a valuation methodfor a locational spread option, the financial equivalent ofa physical transmission right. The model represents an improvementover standard spread option formulation in that it accountsfor the effect of the nonlinear flows in the transmission networkon the correlation and distribution of locational prices. Wealso address the question of whether financial transmissionrights can be replicated with a dynamic portfolio of forwardcontracts at the end nodes. This poses the possibility of model-based arbitrage betweenexisting forward markets and the emerging transmission rightsmarkets. Furthermore, it allows users to simulate the effectof transmission outages or expansion. For example, a for-profittransmission provider who is contemplating addition of a newtransmission line between two markets needs to know whetherhe will be able to recover the fixed cost of investing in theline by selling transmission rights to market participants.By calibrating the bid-based model according to current pricelevels and adding the capacity of the new transmission line,the transmission owner can simulate future cash flows and estimatethe profitability of the investment.     

Influence of Aliphatic Chain Length on Structural,Thermal and Electrochemical Properties of n-alkylene Benzyl Alcohols: A Study of the Odd–Even Effect

The century-old, well-known odd–even effect phenomenon is still a very attractive and intriguing topic in supramolecular and nano-scale organic chemistry. As a part of our continuous efforts in the study of supramolecular chemistry, we have prepared three novel aromatic alcohols (1,2-bis[2-(hydroxymethyl)phenoxy]butylene (Do4OH), 1,2-bis[2-(hydroxymethyl)phenoxy]pentylene (Do5OH) and 1,2-bis[2-(hydroxymethyl)phenoxy]hexylene (Do6OH)) and determined their crystal and molecular structures by single-crystal X-ray diffraction. In all compounds, two benzyl alcohol groups are linked by an aliphatic chain of different lengths (CH₂)_n; n = 4, 5 and 6. The major differences in the molecular structures were found in the overall planarity of the molecules and the conformation of the aliphatic chain. Molecules with an even number of CH₂ groups tend to be planar with an all-trans conformation of the aliphatic chain, while the odd-numbered molecule is non-planar, with partial gauche conformation. A direct consequence of these structural differences is visible in the melting points—odd-numbered compounds of a particular series display systematically lower melting points. Crystal and molecular structures were additionally studied by the theoretical calculations and the melting points were correlated with packing density and the number of CH₂ groups. The results have shown that the generally accepted rule, higher density = higher stability = higher melting point, could not be applied to these compounds. It was found that the denser packaging causes an increase in the percentage of repulsive H‧‧‧H interactions, thereby reducing the stability of the crystal, and consequently, the melting points. Another interesting consequence of different molecular structures is their electrochemical and antioxidative properties—a non-planar structure displays the highest oxidation peak of hydroxyl groups and moderate antioxidant activity.     

Conformational flexibility of xanthene‐based covalently linked dimers

The conformational flexibility of three covalently linked dimers consisting of two xanthene‐based moieties connected by a diphenyl ether linker was studied using NMR spectroscopy, X‐ray crystallography, and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The three dimers interconvert as a function of pH: the doubly cationic dimer (Xan⁺)₂ exists in acidic solutions (pH < 0.5), the mono‐alcohol monocation Xan⁺–Xan‐OH at intermediate pH values (pH = 1–3), and the neutral diol at the highest pH‐values (pH > 3). Each dimer exhibits conformational degrees of freedom associated with rotations of either the xanthene moiety or of the diphenyl ether (DPE) linker. The barriers for rotation of the xanthylium moiety were evaluated using DFT calculations, yielding values of 23 kcal/mol for (Xan⁺)₂ and 11 kcal/mol for (Xan‐OH)₂, respectively. The rotational barrier for the diphenyl ether linker in Xan⁺–Xan‐OH (15 kcal/mol) was experimentally determined using variable temperature NMR measurements. The relative orientation of the two –OH groups in (Xan‐OH)₂ diol was investigated in solution and the solid state using NMR spectroscopy and X‐ray crystallography. The conformer observed in the solid state was found to be the In–Out conformer, while free rotation of the xanthenol units is thought to occur on the NMR timescale at room temperature. These studies are relevant for the design of linkers for efficient water oxidation catalysts. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inhibition of copper corrosion in acidic sulphate media by eco-friendly amino acid compound

This investigation aimed to study a “green” non-toxic biodegradable copper corrosion inhibitor in an acidic sodium sulphate solution. The methods used in the investigation of cysteine as a copper corrosion inhibitor in an acidic sodium sulphate solution were: potentiodynamic measurements, open circuit potential measurements, and chronoamperometric measurements. Optical microscopy was used in addition to electrochemical methods. Potentiodynamic measurements show that cysteine has good inhibitory properties in an acidic medium. Polarisation curves indicate that the presence of cysteine in a sulphate solution decreases the current density and that using various cysteine concentrations results in the formation of a protective film on the surface of the electrode due to the formation of the Cu(I)-cys complex. These results are confirmed by chronoamperometric measurements. Furthermore, it is clear from microphotographs that a protective film does form on copper electrode in the presence of cysteine. The Langmuir adsorption isotherm indicates that cysteine is chemisorbed on the surface of the electrode.     

Cavity effects in coiled coil IR reference source

We performed a high resolution imaging of a coiled coil filament used in tungsten lamps, a standard reference source in spectroscopy. The radiometric results using two-wavelength thermometry indicate that its configuration also introduces cavity effects and non-uniformity of filament temperature distribution, with the average temperature calculated to be 2869 K. Considering the tungsten source as an extended body, significant temperature variations of up to +19 K are found above its nominal 2850 K value.     

Spin-label saturation-recovery EPR at W-band: applications to eye lens lipid membranes

Saturation-recovery (SR) EPR at W-band (94 GHz) to obtain profiles of the membrane fluidity and profiles of the oxygen transport parameter is demonstrated for lens lipid membranes using phosphatidylcholine (n-PC), stearic acid (n-SASL), and cholesterol analog (ASL and CSL) spin labels, and compared with results obtained in parallel experiments at X-band (9.4 GHz). Membranes were derived from the total lipids extracted from 2-year-old porcine lens cortex and nucleus. Two findings are especially significant. First, measurements of the spin-lattice relaxation times T1 for n-PCs allowed T1 profiles across the membrane to be obtained. These profiles reflect local membrane properties differently than profiles of the order parameter. Profiles obtained at W-band are, however, shifted to longer T1 values compared to those obtained at X-band. Second, using cholesterol analog spin labels and relaxation agents (hydrophobic oxygen and water-soluble NiEDDA), the cholesterol bilayer domain was discriminated in membranes made from lipids of the lens nucleus. However, membranes made from cortical lipids show a single homogeneous environment. Profiles of the oxygen transport parameter obtained from W-band measurements are practically identical to those obtained from X-band measurements, and are very similar to those obtained earlier at X-band for membranes made of 2-year-old bovine cortical and nuclear lens lipids (M. Raguz, J. Widomska, J. Dillon, E.R. Gaillard, W.K. Subczynski, Biochim. Biophys. Acta 1788 (2009) 2380-2388). Results demonstrate that SR EPR at W-band has the potential to be a powerful tool for studying samples of small volume, ～30 nL, compared with the sample volume of ～3 μL at X-band.     

Stochastically perturbed vector-borne disease models with direct transmission

In this paper we study a stochastic epidemic model of vector-borne diseases with direct mode of transmission and its delay modification. More precisely, we extend the deterministic epidemic models by introducing random perturbations around the endemic equilibrium state. By using suitable Lyapunov functions and functionals, we obtain stability conditions for the considered models and study the effect of the delay on the stability of the endemic equilibrium. Finally, numerical simulations for the stochastic model of malaria disease transmission are presented to illustrate our mathematical findings.     

Thermal characterization and isothermal kinetic analysis of commercial Creosote decomposition process

Isothermal decomposition process of commercial Creosote was analyzed by thermogravimetric technique in a nitrogen atmosphere, at four different operating temperatures (T = 230, 250, 270, and 290 °C). It was found that the two-parameter autocatalytic ?esták–Berggren kinetic model best describes the investigated process. It was established that the applied logistic function can successfully perform a given kinetic predictions of investigated process, at all operating temperatures. The experimental density distribution function of the apparent activation energy values was evaluated. Based of the characteristic shape of distribution curve, it was concluded that the isothermal pyrolysis of commercial Creosote represent a complex process, which probably includes primary and secondary (autocatalytic) pyrolysis reactions, together with various decomposition reactions and radicals recombination pathways.     

Hydrolysis of the amide bond in N-acetylated l-methionylglycine catalyzed by various platinum(II) complexes under physiologically relevant conditions

The hydrolytic reactions between various Pt(II) complexes of the type [Pt(L)Cl₂] and [Pt(L)(CBDCA-O,O′] (L is ethylenediamine, en; (±)-trans-1,2-diaminocyclohexane, dach; (±)-1,2-propylenediamine, 1,2-pn and CBDCA is the 1,1-cyclobutanedicarboxylic anion) and the N-acetylated l-methionylglycine dipeptide (MeCOMet-Gly) were studied by ¹H NMR spectroscopy. All reactions were realized at 37 °C with equimolar amounts of the Pt(II) complex and the dipeptide at pH 7.40 in 50 mM phosphate buffer in D₂O. Under these experimental conditions, a very slow cleavage of the Met-Gly amide bond was observed and this hydrolytic reaction proceeds through the intermediate [Pt(L)(H₂O)(MeCOMet-Gly-S)]⁺ complex. In general, it can be concluded that faster hydrolytic cleavage of the MeCOMet-Gly dipeptide was observed in the reaction with the chloride complex than with corresponding CBDCA Pt(II) complexes. The steric effects of the Pt(II) complex on the hydrolytic cleavage of the amide bond in the MeCOMet-Gly dipeptide were also investigated by ¹H NMR spectroscopy. It was found that the rate of hydrolysis decreases as the steric bulk of the CBDCA and chlorido Pt(II) complexes increase (en > 1,2-pn > dach). These results contribute to a better understanding of the toxic side effects of Pt(II) antitumor drugs and should be taken into consideration when designing new potential Pt(II) antitumor drugs with preferably low toxic side effects.     

Dispersive micro-solid phase extraction of 16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from water by using thermally treated clinoptilolite,and their quantification by GC-MS

The authors report on a novel sorbent (thermally treated natural zeolite; clinoptilolite) for use in dispersive micro-solid phase extraction (D-μ-SPE) of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from water samples. The method was applied to the D-μ-SPE of 16 priority PAHs which then were quantified by gas chromatography with mass spectrometric detection (GC-MS). The method was validated in terms of specificity and selectivity, linearity and linear range, accuracy, precision, uncertainty, limits of detection and quantification. Figures of merit include (a) linear analytical ranges between 2.08 and 208 ppb, and (b) detection limits in the range from 0.01 to 0.92 ppb. The method was successfully applied to the determination of PAHs in river waters.

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Graphical abstract Schematic representation of dispersive micro-solid phase extraction (D-μ-SPE) of trace levels of PAHs in water samples by using thermally treated clinoptilolite as sorbent prior to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry analysis (GC-MS).