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Andrew Barton 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》1987,38(10):965-974
This paper describes some work carried out in the Scientific Research and Development Branch (SRDB) of the Home Office, intended to contribute to an overall aim of building up internal expertise in the field of expert systems. This was done by carrying out a number of pilot and demonstrator projects, two of which are described in some detail. The plan, which proved successful, was to build as far as possible on the relevant skills already possessed by an OR group in the branch. The lessons learned from these are summarized in the hope that they will be of use to other groups who wish to become involved in this important area. 相似文献
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Chris Hope 《The Journal of the Operational Research Society》2003,54(11):1167-1176
What strategy should a football (soccer, in American parlance) club adopt when deciding whether to sack its manager? This paper introduces a simple model assuming that a club's objective is to maximize the number of league points that it scores per season. The club's strategy consists of three choices: the length of the honeymoon period during which it will not consider sacking a new manager, the level of the performance trapdoor below which the manager get the sack, and the weight that it will give to more recent games compared to earlier ones. Some data from the last six seasons of the English Premiership are used to calibrate the model. At this early stage of the research, the best strategy appears to have only a short honeymoon period of eight games (much less than the actual shortest period of 12 games), to set the trapdoor at 0.74 points per game, and to put 47% of the weight on the last five games. A club adopting this strategy would obtain on average 56.8 points per season, compared to a Premiership average of 51.8 points. 相似文献
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Dominique Fourdrinier William E. Strawderman 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(4):803-816
We consider estimation of loss for generalized Bayes or pseudo-Bayes estimators of a multivariate normal mean vector, θ. In
3 and higher dimensions, the MLEX is UMVUE and minimax but is inadmissible. It is dominated by the James-Stein estimator and by many others. Johnstone (1988,
On inadmissibility of some unbiased estimates of loss,Statistical Decision Theory and Related Topics, IV (eds. S. S. Gupta and J. O. Berger), Vol. 1, 361–379, Springer, New York) considered the estimation of loss for the usual
estimatorX and the James-Stein estimator. He found improvements over the Stein unbiased estimator of risk. In this paper, for a generalized
Bayes point estimator of θ, we compare generalized Bayes estimators to unbiased estimators of loss. We find, somewhat surprisingly,
that the unbiased estimator often dominates the corresponding generalized Bayes estimator of loss for priors which give minimax
estimators in the original point estimation problem. In particular, we give a class of priors for which the generalized Bayes
estimator of θ is admissible and minimax but for which the unbiased estimator of loss dominates the generalized Bayes estimator
of loss. We also give a general inadmissibility result for a generalized Bayes estimator of loss.
Research supported by NSF Grant DMS-97-04524. 相似文献
8.
Mao‐Chuan Yuan Ping‐I Shih Chen‐Han Chien Ching‐Fong Shu 《Journal of polymer science. Part A, Polymer chemistry》2007,45(14):2925-2937
We have synthesized a blue‐light‐emitting polyfluorene (PF) derivative ( PF‐CBZ‐OXD ) that presents bulky hole‐transporting carbazole and electron‐transporting oxadiazole pendent groups functionalized at the C‐9 positions of alternating fluorene units. The results from photoluminescence and electrochemical measurements indicate that both the side chains and the PF main chain retain their own electronic characteristics in the copolymer. An electroluminescent device incorporating this polymer as the emitting layer was turned on at 4.5 V; it exhibited a stable blue emission with a maximum external quantum efficiency of 1.1%. Moreover, we doped PF‐CBZ‐OXD and its analogue PF‐TPA‐OXD with a red‐light‐emitting iridium phosphor for use as components of phosphorescent red‐light emitters to investigate the effect of the host's HOMO energy level on the degree of charge trapping and on the electrophosphorescent efficiency. We found that spectral overlap and individual energy level matching between the host and guest were both crucial features affecting the performance of the electroluminescence devices. Atomic force microscopy measurements indicated that the dipolar nature of PF‐CBZ‐OXD , in contrast to the general nonpolarity of polydialkylfluorenes, provided a stabilizing environment that allowed homogeneous dispersion of the polar iridium triplet dopant. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part A: Polym Chem 45: 2925–2937, 2007 相似文献
9.
In order to reduce infant mortality in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro it is desired to encourage all mothers-to-be to attend the appropriate health care facilities. A 3-level hierarchical prenatal–neonatal health care system is described together with a basic model for optimising accessibility to facilities. A genetic algorithm to solve the basic model is developed and some numerical experience reported. Extensions to the basic model and planned future research are briefly indicated. 相似文献
10.
Florin Ambro 《manuscripta mathematica》2003,111(1):43-49
We prove a precise inversion of adjunction formula for the log variety (ℂ
d
+1,X), where X is a non-degenerate hypersurface. As a corollary, the minimal log discrepancies of non-degenerate normal hypersurface singularities
are bounded by dimension.
Received: 17 September 2002 / Revised version: 22 November 2002
Published online: 14 February 2003
Current address: DPMMS, CMS, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WB, England. e-mail: f.ambro@dpmms.cam.ac.uk
Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): Primary 14B05; Secondary 14M25, 52B20 相似文献