Local Minority Game with Evolutionary Strategies

We study a model of local minority game in the random Kauffman network with evolutionary strategies and propose three methods to update the strategy of poor agents, with lower points in a given generation： namely to update either the Boolean function of their strategies randomly, or their local information of randomly adjacent m agents, or the number m of randomly chosen adjacent agents. The results of extended numerical simulations show that the behaviour of strategies in the three methods may enhance significantly the entire coordination of agents in the system. It is also found that a poor agent tends to use both small m strategies and correlated strategies, and the strategies of agents will finally self-organize into a steady-state distribution for a long time playing of the game.     

Incomplete strategy effect in Minority Game

We perform simulations with the extended Incomplete Minority Game model, and find that limited incompleteness in strategies can improve the system efficiency greatly. There is a critical p_Ic such that agents in a system can get the best cooperation. The critical strategy density value α_c decreases monotonously with the increase of p_I. We also mix incomplete strategy agents with standard strategy agents to study the effect of incompleteness distribution on system properties and group average profit. Concentration of incompleteness weakens its effect. When p_I is close to zero, agents using incomplete strategies averagely have better profits than those using standard strategies.     

The Interactive Minority Game: a Web-based investigation of human market interactions

The unprecedented access offered by the World Wide Web brings with it the potential to gather huge amounts of data on human activities. Here we exploit this by using a toy model of financial markets, the Minority Game (MG), to investigate human speculative trading behaviour and information capacity. Hundreds of individuals have played a total of tens of thousands of game turns against computer-controlled agents in the Web-based Interactive Minority Game. The analytical understanding of the MG permits fine-tuning of the market situations encountered, allowing for investigation of human behaviour in a variety of controlled environments. In particular, our results indicate a transition in players’ decision-making, as the markets become more difficult, between deductive behaviour making use of short-term trends in the market, and highly repetitive behaviour that ignores entirely the market history, yet outperforms random decision-making.     

Evolution of imitation networks in Minority Game model

The Minority Game is adapted to study the “imitation dilemma”, i.e. the tradeoff between local benefit and global harm coming from imitation. The agents are placed on a substrate network and are allowed to imitate more successful neighbours. Imitation domains, which are oriented trees, are formed. We investigate size distribution of the domains and in-degree distribution within the trees. We use four types of substrate: one-dimensional chain; Erd?s-Rényi graph; Barabási-Albert scale-free graph; Barabási-Albert 'model A' graph. The behaviour of some features of the imitation network strongly depend on the information cost epsilon, which is the percentage of gain the imitators must pay to the imitated. Generally, the system tends to form a few domains of equal size. However, positive epsilon makes the system stay in a long-lasting metastable state with complex structure. The in-degree distribution is found to follow a power law in two cases of those studied: for Erd?s-Rényi substrate for any epsilon and for Barabási-Albert scale-free substrate for large enough epsilon. A brief comparison with empirical data is provided.     

Diversity of scales makes an advantage: The case of the Minority Game

We use the Minority Game as a testing frame for the problem of the emergence of diversity in socio-economic systems. For the MG with heterogeneous impacts, we show that the direct generalisation of the usual agents’ profit does not fit some real-world situations. As a typical example we use the traffic formulation of the MG. Taking into account vehicles of various lengths it can easily happen that one of the roads is crowded by a few long trucks and the other contains more drivers but still is less covered by vehicles. Most drivers are in the shorter queue, so the majority win. To describe such situations, we generalised the formula for agents’ profit by explicitly introducing a utility function depending on an agent’s impact. Then, the overall profit of the system may become positive depending on the actual choice of the utility function. We investigated several choices of the utility function and showed that this variant of the MG may turn into a positive sum game.     

A tractable evolutionary model for the Minority Game with asymmetric payoffs

We set up a simple behavioral model for a large population of agents who are repeatedly playing the Minority Game and whose interaction is modeled by means of the so-called replicator dynamics. This allows us to specify the dynamics of the aggregate variables, the number of agents choosing each side, in terms of a low-dimensional dynamical system that gives qualitatively the same results of the existing computational approaches. As an extension we introduce asymmetric payoffs, i.e., we analyze the case where the minority and majority payoffs are side dependent. In this case the fluctuations out of the equilibrium are qualitatively different. In particular, contrary to the previous case, they are associated with a difference in the average payoff gained by each side. Furthermore, a parameter region exists where the dynamics does not converge to any isolated periodic attractor.     

Minority Game of price promotions in fast moving consumer goods markets

A variation of the Minority Game has been applied to study the timing of promotional actions at retailers in the fast moving consumer goods market. The underlying hypotheses for this work are that price promotions are more effective when fewer than average competitors do a promotion, and that a promotion strategy can be based on past sales data. The first assumption has been checked by analysing 1467 promotional actions for three products on the Dutch market (ketchup, mayonnaise and curry sauce) over a 120-week period, both on an aggregated level and on retailer chain level.

The second assumption was tested by analysing past sales data with the Minority Game. This revealed that high or low competitor promotional pressure for actual ketchup, mayonnaise, curry sauce and barbecue sauce markets is to some extent predictable up to a forecast of some 10 weeks. Whereas a random guess would be right 50% of the time, a single-agent game can predict the market with a success rate of 56% for a 6–9 week forecast. This number is the same for all four mentioned fast moving consumer markets. For a multi-agent game a larger variability in the success rate is obtained, but predictability can be as high as 65%.

Contrary to expectation, the actual market does the opposite of what game theory would predict. This points at a systematic oscillation in the market. Even though this result is not fully understood, merely observing that this trend is present in the data could lead to exploitable trading benefits. As a check, random history strings were generated from which the statistical variation in the game prediction was studied. This shows that the odds are 1:1,000,000 that the observed pattern in the market is based on coincidence.     

Strategy correlations and timing of adaptation in Minority Games

We study the role of strategy correlations and timing of adaptation for the dynamics of Minority Games, both simulationally and analytically. Using the exact generating functional approach à la De Dominicis we compute the phase diagram and the behaviour of batch and on-line games with correlated strategies, complementing exisiting replica studies of their statics. It is shown that the timing of adaptation can be relevant; while conventional games with uncorrelated strategies are nearly insensitive to the choice of on-line versus batch learning, we find qualitative differences when anti-correlations are present in the strategy assignments. The available standard approximations for the volatility in terms of persistent order parameters in the stationary ergodic states become unreliable in batch games under such circumstances. We then comment on the role of oscillations and the relation to the breakdown of ergodicity. Finally, it is discussed how the generating functional formalism can be used to study mixed populations of so-called ‘producers’ and ‘speculators’ in the context of the batch Minority Games.     

The Social Climbing Game

The structure of societies depends, to some extent, on the incentives of the individuals they are composed of. We study a stylized model of this interplay, that suggests that the more individuals aim at climbing the social hierarchy, the more society’s hierarchy gets strong. Such a dependence is sharp, in the sense that a persistent hierarchical order emerges abruptly when the preference for social status gets larger than a threshold. This phase transition has its origin in the fact that the presence of a well defined hierarchy allows agents to climb it, thus reinforcing it, whereas in a “disordered” society it is harder for agents to find out whom they should connect to in order to become more central. Interestingly, a social order emerges when agents strive harder to climb society and it results in a state of reduced social mobility, as a consequence of ergodicity breaking, where climbing is more difficult.     

ISG-FHEV等效燃油消耗最小控制策略

针对室内复杂环境下火灾识别准确率会降低的问题,提出了一种改进的粒子群算法优化支持向量机参数进行火灾火焰识别的方法。首先在 颜色空间进行火焰图像分割,对获得的火焰图像进行预处理并提取相关特征量;其次采用PSO算法搜索SVM的最优核参数和惩罚因子,并在PSO算法中加入变异操作和非线性动态调整惯性权值的方法,加快了搜索SVM最优参数的精度和速度;然后将提取的火焰各个特征量作为训练样本输入SVM模型进行训练,并建立参数优化后的SVM分类器模型;最后将待测试样本输入SVM模型进行分类识别。算法的火灾识别准确率达到94.09%,分类效果明显优于其他分类算法。仿真结果表明,改进的PSO优化SVM算法提高了火焰识别的准确率和实时性,算法的自适应性更强,误判率更低。     

Two-Dimensional Critical Percolation: The Full Scaling Limit

We use SLE ₆ paths to construct a process of continuum nonsimple loops in the plane and prove that this process coincides with the full continuum scaling limit of 2D critical site percolation on the triangular lattice – that is, the scaling limit of the set of all interfaces between different clusters. Some properties of the loop process, including conformal invariance, are also proved.Research partially supported by a Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship under contract MEIF-CT-2003-500740 and by a Veni grant of the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).Research partially supported by the U.S. NSF under grant DMS-01-04278.     

The Study of Full Light Speech Signal Collection System

The demodulation character of 3×3 optic fiber couplers is analyzed, and the application in the coherent communication system and speech signal collection is pointed out in the paper. By the experiment, the feasibility of speech signal collection system by the way of the all light is verified.     

The Study of Full Light Speech Signal Collection System

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The Sensitivity Analysis of Full Digital Compensatory MMW Radiometer

The digital compensatory millimeter wave radiometer is a new type of radiometer, which uses the digital compensatory operator to compensate gain and receiver noise fluctuation. This paper aims at the full digital compensatory 8 MMW radiometer which was designed, proposing the analysis method of its sensitivity, obtaining the mathematical formulae of its equivalent integration time and the best sensitivity adjustment method by software. Supported by the National High-Tech Research and Development Program (863 Program No.2006AA09Z143)of China, and the Science and Technology Committee of HuBei Province (No. 2006ABA069).     

Full Field Algebras

We introduce a notion of full field algebra which is essentially an algebraic formulation of the notion of genus-zero full conformal field theory. For any vertex operator algebras V ^L and V ^R , is naturally a full field algebra and we introduce a notion of full field algebra over . We study the structure of full field algebras over using modules and intertwining operators for V ^L and V ^R . For a simple vertex operator algebra V satisfying certain natural finiteness and reductivity conditions needed for the Verlinde conjecture to hold, we construct a bilinear form on the space of intertwining operators for V and prove the nondegeneracy and other basic properties of this form. The proof of the nondegenracy of the bilinear form depends not only on the theory of intertwining operator algebras but also on the modular invariance for intertwining operator algebras through the use of the results obtained in the proof of the Verlinde conjecture by the first author. Using this nondegenerate bilinear form, we construct a full field algebra over and an invariant bilinear form on this algebra.     

The Raman Spectrum and Full Vibrational Assignment of Ethylenediamne Dihydrochloride

A full vibrational analysis was recently made for the H³N⁺CH₂CH₂N⁺H₃ ion, on the basis of infrared measurements, and a partial vibrational assignment proposed¹. The observed fundamentals were interpreted In terms of a C_2h, symmetry for the ion. There are thirty-six fundamentals (r - lla_g + 8A_u + 7B_g + 10B_u; A_g and B_g Raman-active only; A_u and B_u infrared-active only). In addition to the eighteen infrared-active vibrations, a number of bands was observed which were assigned as formally forbidden Raman-active modes, excited by strong hydrogen bonding causing departure from the exact site symmetry of the species.     

Minority games with heterogeneous timescales

Minority games where groups of agents remember, react or incorporate information with different timescales are investigated. We support our findings by analytical arguments whenever possible.