基于分户匹配推送模式的互利GSP竞价交易模型

通过对当前电视广告的商业运行模式进行分析,建立了分户推送广告模型和组织竞价交易模型.首先,在分户推送广告模型中,建立了用户向量和广告向量,基于PageRank算法和模糊匹配的静态匹配模型确定了广告与用户的匹配度,并根据用户的历史收视情况和广告商品的销量增长情况更新用户向量和广告向量;其次,在组织竞价交易模型中,根据同类别其他电视台该时段的广告成交价格区间和相关因素来确定各时段广告的合理底价,通过信誉度和可信有效竞价来确定某时段广告的单位成交价格,在极大化卖方收益的同时提高了收视率和买方产品的销售量;最后,通过算例对模型进行了验证,并与现有的推送及竞价交易模式进行了比较.     

需求依赖价格、广告投人和质量控制的供应链模型

研究了需求受零售商销售价格和广告投入以及制造商质量控制影响的供应链协调问题,分析了零售商的广告投入以及制造商的质量控制对市场需求的影响,分别给出了集中决策和分散决策下零售商的最优销售价格、最优订购量和最优广告投入努力水平以及制造商的最优质量控制努力水平和最优批发价格,利用了特许经营契约来使供应链达到完美协调.最后,通过数值算例对模型进行仿真计算与分析.     

基于品牌和促销广告的闭环供应链模型

研究了考虑广告投入的闭环供应链的协调问题,建立了制造商品牌广告投入和零售商地方促销广告投入共同影响市场需求的闭环供应链模型,分别给出在集中决策和分散决策下制造商的最优品牌广告投入努力,零售商最优地方促销广告投入努力及制造商的最优回收率和最优批发价格,利用特许经营契约使闭环供应链系统达到协调,并且通过数值对模型进行了仿真计算.     

搜索引擎行业竞争策略

2011年,我国互联网广告市场规模达512．9亿元,预计2012年网络广告规模将达800亿元,超过平面媒体并且逼近电视广告规模。然而,随着2012年宏观经济增速放缓,企业主们在广告投放预算上显然变得更加谨慎,互联网搜索引擎广告也难独善其身。     

基于LASSO变量选择方法的网络广告点击率预测模型研究

与传统的的媒体营销模式相比,搜索引擎广告因其精准和投入低等特点获得巨大成功。但已有的搜索引擎广告点击率模型不能有效解决数据量大及特征维度高的问题,使预测结果的准确性大打折扣。本文构建了一种基于LASSO变量选择方法的广告点击率预测模型,能有效克服现有广告点击率模型在处理数据高维性和稀疏性方面的不足。利用某公司的竞价数据对模型进行验证,结果表明影响广告点击率的关键因素是广告关键词中的商标信息、地域信息和每点击成本。该研究结果为企业制定搜索引擎广告营销策略提供一定的理论依据。     

基于品牌价值的销售额预测模型应用研究

首先分析了企业的品牌价值与其销售额的变化情况,归纳出品牌价值与销售额之间的两个重要的变化规律.而后以此作为二者关系方程构建的基础假设,以广告反映模型(VW模型)为基础,将原模型中的广告投入变量替换为品牌价值变量,建立了品牌价值与销售额之间的关系方程.通过求解关系方程的平衡解,得到了以品牌价值为变量的销售额预测模型.最后,采用海尔集团的实际数据对所建模型的适用性和正确性进行了证明,同时还对模型的预测精度进行了检验.研究突破了以往研究一般采用时间、环境变量直接预测销售额,或是采用历史数据对销售额进行模拟预测等传统的预测方法,首次从品牌价值的角度出发研究其对销售额的影响途径及影响力度.品牌价值是能够包涵如广告投入等因素的全部信息量的重要指标,因此其能够更为全面客观地衡量商品在整个市场中的价值潜力、能够更准确地反映其未来的销售份额.     

不同推介模式下网络零售商广告策略研究

研究了不同推介模式下网络零售商的广告策略问题,通过Nash静态博弈方法求解无推介、单向推介以及双向推介三种模式下零售商均衡零售价格、广告努力水平及利润。研究发现:无推介情况下,两零售商均衡广告策略为同时投入广告。单向推介情况下,若利润分享比例较小,则两零售商同时投入广告;若利润分享比例较大,则随着广告成本系数的增大,两零售商均衡广告策略从仅有被推介零售商投入广告转变为同时投入广告。双向推介情况下,若广告成本系数较小,则两家零售商都不投入广告;若广告成本系数较大,则两家零售商同时投入广告。此外,还分析了零售商均衡广告策略下的推介动力问题。     

应用Logistic模型对建三江农场水稻生产潜力的分析

本文首先建立了建三江农场水稻单产变化的 Logistic模型 ,通过对模型的微分方程形式的离散 ,得一二次函数 ,进行回归分析 ,得出模型中参数的估计值 .对模型进行分析得出现阶段水稻单产的最大潜力和水稻增产速度最快的时间段 ,对于指导水稻生产 ,优化农业生产结构 ,都具有很深的现实意义     

排球比赛中的二传最优过程

为了研究排球比赛中的二传最优过程 ,本文基于决策论的理论和方法建立了排球二传最优过程的数学模型 .通过对模型的分析研究分别给出了最大概率准则和最大期望准则下的最优传球方式 .本文所得到的结果对排球队的训练和比赛有一定的指导意义 .     

具广告影响的再制造闭环供应链的决策与协调

再制造品的出现会对单位利润较高的新产品产生蚕食,因此需要对新产品进行广告投入而制定合适的广告策略.在考虑普通消费者和绿色消费者偏好的基础上,进一步考虑了新产品广告投入对再制造闭环供应链(Closed-Loop Supply Chain,CLSC)的影响.基于消费者效用理论和博弈论方法,构建了再制造CLSC决策模型,对比研究了不同情况下的最优定价和广告策略,阐明了广告效应对再制造CLSC决策和利润的影响,并提出了改进的两部收费制契约.通过算例分析得到:广告不改变再制造CLSC定价策略的选择规律,无论是否有广告投入,零售商和制造商均倾向于其自身主导,第三方回收商倾向于制造商主导,但从经济效益和环境效益方面来说,制造商主导模式更优,并且改进的两部收费制契约能够实现再制造CLSC的有效协调.     

Using mixture‐amount modeling to optimize the advertising media mix and quantify cross‐media synergy for specific target groups

One of the critical decisions in media planning is how to allocate advertising efforts across different media. While studies indicate that marketers can create positive synergy effects by spreading their effort across several media, there is little understanding of how much should be invested in each specific medium to optimize advertising results. In this study, we apply a novel methodology, mixture‐amount modeling, which allows advertisers to determine the optimal allocation of advertising effort across media as a function of the total advertising effort. Moreover, we test how the optimal allocation and the resulting response change for consumers with distinctive media usage patterns and varying degrees of product category experience. Based on these results, we quantify the potential synergy between media and calculate the synergistic capacity for specific target groups. We apply the model to data from 52 beauty care advertising campaigns that ran on TV and in magazines in the Netherlands and Belgium. We determine the optimal allocation of advertising investments (measured through Gross Rating Points) to maximize campaign recognition. Our findings support the existence of positive synergistic effects between magazine and TV advertising and illustrate that these effects depend on consumers' media usage and product category experience.     

An oligopoly model of dynamic advertising competition

An oligopoly model is presented that allows the determination of feedback Nash equilibrium advertising strategies for an oligopoly. Analyses of symmetric and asymmetric oligopolies with the model show that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness have positive effects on a competitor’s own advertising and steady-state sales, while discount rate and decay rate have negative effects. An asymmetric analysis further shows that unit contribution and advertising effectiveness affect positively, and discount rate and decay rate negatively, a competitor’s rivals’ advertising, but have effects in opposite directions regarding rivals’ steady-state sales. The symmetric and asymmetric analyses also show that steady-state sales per competitor decline with the number of competitors in the oligopoly, while total oligopoly steady-state sales increase. The model is applied empirically to the triopolistic competition involving Anheuser-Busch, SABMiller, and Molson Coors in the beer industry.     

Modelling impact of advertising and optimizing advertising policy: an application in recreation

This paper deals with the problem of the desirable level of advertising expenditure, the optimal distribution of this expenditure in time and the allocation over the media: TV, radio and newspaper for a recreation park in the Netherlands.Although the model id developed for the specific situation of this park, in principle it can be applied in all situations where the interest is in short-term (day-by-day) effects of promotional activities on sales. Examples are: other situations in the recreation and leisure business, cultural events (theatre, cinema) and sales promotions (e.g. weekend offerings) for products in supermarkets.First a model was specified and estimated that relates number of visitors to advertising effort. It also takes into account non-advertising variables that effect the number of visitors.Then this model was used in a heuristic advertising planning procedure, which by means of incremental analysis, for a given budget level searches for the optimal allocation of the advertising budget over media and time.With this procedure, ways to readjust the advertising policy were found: by allocating the budget differently over media and time and by changing the overall budget level.Several recommendations were made to the management of the park, a number of which have already been implemented.     

Dynamical analysis of a nonlinear competitive model with generic and brand advertising efforts

In this paper, a new four-dimensional map is proposed to model the dynamical advertising efforts, where both the generic and brand effects for advertisement are taken into account in the model. The marginal profit adapting strategy is used to reflect the interaction among the firms that strive for the optimal profit. When the generic advertising bears a large effectiveness coefficient, the generic advertising efforts will exhibit chaos, which leads to a chaotic dynamics for brand advertising efforts. In this case, we analyze the some properties of steady trajectories that imply rough profiles of the advertising strategies evolution. Furthermore, by rigorous dynamical analysis and numerical simulations, we obtain the feasible set outlining the influence of initial conditions on the global dynamic properties. We first deal with the symmetric system, and then extend the obtained results to more general case, namely, the asymmetric model. For the symmetric model, two firms’ brand advertising expenditures behave synchronization, but the dynamics of generic advertising efforts are dependent upon initial conditions. Meanwhile, for the heterogeneous case, the domain firm in the market needs to contribute all generic advertising expenditures. Our results can have a practical impact on the market evolution, and are therefore beneficial to decision maker.     

A Competitive Advertising Model: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results

Using a modified Lanchester model, this article demonstrates that the policy of constant advertising spending is superior to a cyclic counterpart, provided that the advertising response functions of competing firms are concave. The competitive model is estimated using filter and non-filter cigarette data. The empirical results suggest the presence of over-advertising and that the relative effectiveness and elasticity of filter cigarette advertising are both higher than those of non-filter cigarette advertising.     

Cooperative advertising in a distribution channel with fairness concerns

Cooperative (co-op) advertising has been widely used in practice and employed as a strategy to improve the performance of a distribution channel. It is known from the existing models that co-op advertising could not achieve the channel coordination (i.e., maximize the total channel profit). In this paper, we consider a distribution channel consisting of a single manufacturer and a single retailer, and investigate the effect of the retailer’s fairness concerns. Applying the equilibrium analysis, we obtain the following results: (1) Channel coordination can be achieved if the retailer has fairness concerns and model parameters satisfy certain conditions. (2) Although both channel members become better off with co-op advertising if neither channel member has fairness concerns, we find situations where co-op advertising brings detrimental effects to the retailer if the retailer has fairness concerns. (3) The retailer’s fairness concerns may increase or decrease the equilibrium participation rate, the equilibrium advertising effort, and the equilibrium profit of the manufacturer and the whole channel. (4) We identify the conditions under which the effectiveness of co-op advertising can be improved or reduced by the retailer’s fairness concerns. As long as co-op advertising can bring extra profit to the manufacturer, the retailer’s fairness concerns could improve the effectiveness of the co-op advertising. (5) There exists a Pareto improvement for the profits of both the manufacturer and the retailer when a retailer without fairness concerns becomes fair-minded.     

Optimum advertising policy over time for subscriber service innovations in the presence of service cost learning and customers’ disadoption

On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes qualitatively optimal advertising policy for new subscriber services. A monopolistic market is analyzed first for which customers’ disadoption, discounting of future profits streams and a service cost learning curve are allowed. After characterizing the optimal policy for a general diffusion model, the results pertaining to a specific diffusion model for which advertising affects the coefficient of innovation that incorporates the disadoption rate are reported. The results of the theoretical research show that the advertising policy of the service firm in the presence of customers’ disadoption could be very different from the same when disadoption is ignored.On the empirical side, four alternative diffusion models are estimated and their predictive powers using a one-step-ahead forecasting procedure compared. The diffusion data analyzed are related to the Canadian cable TV industry. Empirical research findings suggest that the specific diffusion model considered above is not only of theoretical appeal but also of major empirical relevance.The analytical findings of the study are documented in six theoretical propositions for which proofs are provided in a separate Appendix. The results of a related numerical experiment together with the analytical findings pertaining to the competitive role of advertising are included. Managerial implications of the study together with directions for future research are also discussed.     

An Application of Multiple Regression Analysis to the Greek Beer Market

The object of this paper is to present a quantitative analysis of the Greek beer industry, through the use of various single regressions. The first part presents the relationship between advertising and sales through disaggregating advertising outlays, media and firm advertised, while a number of indices referring to advertising effectiveness are also estimated. The second part extends the discussion by presenting an illustrative example with regard to the implied duration interval and its importance in advertising.     

On the impact of advertising initiatives in supply chains

Advertising plays an important role in affecting consumer demand. Socially responsible firms are expected to use advertising judiciously, limiting advertising of “bad” products. An example is the advertising initiative adopted by several major food manufacturers to limit the advertising of unhealthy food categories to children. Such initiatives are based on the belief that less advertising will lead to less consumption of these unhealthy food categories. However, food manufacturers usually distribute products to consumers through retailers whose advertising is not restricted by those initiative programs. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of such advertising initiative in a leader–follower supply chain with one manufacturer and one retailer. We assume that both the manufacturer and the retailer can choose to participate in the advertising initiative by reducing their advertising levels. The problem is formulated as a Stackelberg game. We show that the effectiveness of the advertising initiative critically depends on the leader’s participation in the initiative. If the leader is willing to reduce the advertising level below a threshold, the market coverage of the product can drop significantly. On the other hand, if only the follower participates in the initiative, the market coverage is likely to expand in the majority of cases. Managerial implications of this research are also discussed.     

Quality improvement vs. advertising support: Which strategy works better for a manufacturer?

We consider a marketing channel with a single manufacturer and a single retailer, where both advertising and quality improvement contribute to the build-up of goodwill. In a non-coop scenario, the retailer controls the advertising efforts while the manufacturer controls the quality improvements and wholesale price. Although improving quality positively contributes to goodwill, it also increases the production cost, thereby reducing the manufacturer’s profit. In a coop scenario, the manufacturer supports the retailer’s advertising while decreasing his investments in quality. We investigate the conditions under which a coop program is beneficial when such a trade-off occurs. Our results demonstrate that only when advertising significantly contributes to goodwill the manufacturer has an incentive to cooperate and a coop program turns out to be Pareto-improving. Conversely, the retailer is always better off with a coop program. Moreover, the channel is operational- and marketing-driven when quality effectiveness is high independent of advertising effectiveness or when both quality and advertising effectiveness are large. In all other cases, the channel is marketing-driven.